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Old 05-23-2018, 10:28 AM   #341
wdc330i
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Not that I care, but I told people a couple of years ago that while I truly admire what Tesla has done because it is not easy, they really had a precious window in which to prove themselves as a volume manufacturer.

I think it has taken them too long. Look at the eGolf. The car has been flawless and it was a first-year car. That's because all VW had to worry about was learning how to implement electric power. They already knew how to make cars. That's not the case for Tesla.

In a couple of years Tesla will not be the only game in town and it will have to compete with prestigious car makers for that (growing) slice of the pie.

No Lexus/MB/BMW/LR/Audi/Jaguar buyer would put up with this nonsense. Tesla people do because they are cool and new. That won't be the case for long. I wish Tesla the best, but they need to grow VERY fast with good-quality products to hope to be profitable. I think they will run out of time. They are already starting to see dwindling credits in the horizon. Wait until Mercedes at. al. put out a Tesla competitor with a $7500 Fed credit that Tesla can't have.

I hope I'm wrong.
I think you're right but also that, in the long run, they will have proved to be an important innovator and catalyst for the category. I also think the company will continue to reinvent itself, and that cars won't be their last stop.
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Old 05-23-2018, 10:31 AM   #342
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Doesn't this conversation head towards the other big question about Tesla and if they ever meant to be a manufacturer long term? Or just prove a technology and move to sell/license it?

The 3 has some major issues. The S has been solid. I don't know where the X falls in that range, but it's there. The places where they're failing are 1) related to product development of products that typically take several years to develop while standing on the shoulders of many, many years of institutional know-how and corporate infrastructure at the majors which Tesla simply does not have and 2) scale.

Their basic new trick is batteries, range, and charging at a workable price point. They've proved they figured that out. The house battery thing, dunno where that goes, but I've never been convinced that Tesla was really about making their own cars long term.
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Old 05-23-2018, 11:16 AM   #343
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I think you're right but also that, in the long run, they will have proved to be an important innovator and catalyst for the category. I also think the company will continue to reinvent itself, and that cars won't be their last stop.
I can certainly believe that. And yes, I agree that Tesla has been massively influential and in large part the reason for the EV revolution momentum.
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Old 05-23-2018, 11:20 AM   #344
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Doesn't this conversation head towards the other big question about Tesla and if they ever meant to be a manufacturer long term? Or just prove a technology and move to sell/license it?

The 3 has some major issues. The S has been solid. I don't know where the X falls in that range, but it's there. The places where they're failing are 1) related to product development of products that typically take several years to develop while standing on the shoulders of many, many years of institutional know-how and corporate infrastructure at the majors which Tesla simply does not have and 2) scale.

Their basic new trick is batteries, range, and charging at a workable price point. They've proved they figured that out. The house battery thing, dunno where that goes, but I've never been convinced that Tesla was really about making their own cars long term.
I had not considered that. I mean, sure, I knew about the house battery thing, and that seemed like a potential avenue to not rely on car manufacturing alone, but I never thought of them completely shifting away from making cars.
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Old 06-02-2018, 12:22 PM   #345
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Right - I had always thought their long term strstegy was to force other carmakers to come out with EVs and then switch to becoming a supplier of battery packs , charging infrastructure, etc. Since the model S and X largely achieved the goal of getting consumers interested in EVs I’m a bit surprised that they bothered with attempting a mass market car (with all the associated headaches). Ego maybe?


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Old 06-02-2018, 01:42 PM   #346
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Tesla has been very clear for years that their ultimate goal was to build a mass market car. I’d have been really surprised if they backed off before they did that.

As for forcing a shift—the S and X have definitely proved that electric cars can be mainstream. They’ve also pushed a lot of carmakers toward thinking about EVs.

But how many long range EVs are there now, that aren’t Teslas? Pretty much one—the Bolt. There are a lot of designs in the pipeline, but it’ll be years before they’re actually on the road. I don’t think Tesla’s work on forcing a shift is done until some significant percentage of new cars are electric. That day is at least 10 years off.
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Old 06-04-2018, 04:53 PM   #347
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Tesla has been very clear for years that their ultimate goal was to build a mass market car. I’d have been really surprised if they backed off before they did that.

As for forcing a shift—the S and X have definitely proved that electric cars can be mainstream. They’ve also pushed a lot of carmakers toward thinking about EVs.

But how many long range EVs are there now, that aren’t Teslas? Pretty much one—the Bolt. There are a lot of designs in the pipeline, but it’ll be years before they’re actually on the road. I don’t think Tesla’s work on forcing a shift is done until some significant percentage of new cars are electric. That day is at least 10 years off.
Jaguar I-Pace just came out, and I think that whatever the production name for Porsche's Mission E can't be far behind. Pretty sure BMW has all electric 5 series in the works. But in the 30-60k segment, there's not much beyond the i3 and Bolt currently-true.
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