When will the used car market peak?

[FC]

Originally Posted by ZBB

Get used to it. Chip shortage will impact new vehicle production for ~2 more years, maybe into 2024...

I thought we were seeing the beginnings of improvement on that front?

[ZBB]

Originally Posted by FC

I thought we were seeing the beginnings of improvement on that front?

If anything, its getting worse for most of the automakers.

A few (Hyundai is one) are less impacted -- they produce chips in-house or with dedicated production with partners (Samsung/LG...)

But other OEMs are still reducing production. GM has halted production of entire models, other OEMs are closing factories for a few weeks at a time. Others are parking new production in lots and installing chips later (Ford in particular) -- so it feels like batches are released here and there. The NY Times reported this morning that Toyota is cutting production 15% for November: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/15/b...-shortage.html

I saw the below headline yesterday from Hisense (Chinese consumer electronics company) saying to expect 2-3 more years of shortages: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/15/chip...president.html

[clyde]

Originally Posted by ZBB

Get used to it. Chip shortage will impact new vehicle production for ~2 more years, maybe into 2024...

Originally Posted by ZBB

If anything, its getting worse for most of the automakers.

A few (Hyundai is one) are less impacted -- they produce chips in-house or with dedicated production with partners (Samsung/LG...)

But other OEMs are still reducing production. GM has halted production of entire models, other OEMs are closing factories for a few weeks at a time. Others are parking new production in lots and installing chips later (Ford in particular) -- so it feels like batches are released here and there. The NY Times reported this morning that Toyota is cutting production 15% for November: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/15/b...-shortage.html

I saw the below headline yesterday from Hisense (Chinese consumer electronics company) saying to expect 2-3 more years of shortages: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/15/chip...president.html

My understanding is that it's more than chip shortages at this point. Everything that relies on manufacturing, shipping, and/or logistics is somewhere between starting to feel the pinch to being full on squeezed.

Taking a look at news pieces about container ships stacked up outside major ports, labor shortages (particularly in manufacturing and truck driving), and other supply chain related challenges gives the sense that things are...not good or appear headed in the right direction any time soon.

There are growing public cries from a number of quarters about shortages of manufactured goods (and food) becoming a more common thing for an extended period of time while supply chain issues are worked out and some business practices modified to adapt.

LA Times article from the other day that is a quick and easy overview:
https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...t-mean-for-you

[lemming]

Originally Posted by clyde

My understanding is that it's more than chip shortages at this point. Everything that relies on manufacturing, shipping, and/or logistics is somewhere between starting to feel the pinch to being full on squeezed.

Taking a look at news pieces about container ships stacked up outside major ports, labor shortages (particularly in manufacturing and truck driving), and other supply chain related challenges gives the sense that things are...not good or appear headed in the right direction any time soon.

There are growing public cries from a number of quarters about shortages of manufactured goods (and food) becoming a more common thing for an extended period of time while supply chain issues are worked out and some business practices modified to adapt.

LA Times article from the other day that is a quick and easy overview:
https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...t-mean-for-you

And it will not be resolved anytime soon. Maybe 15-18 months.

There’s nonsense about working the deep water ports 24 hours a day.

But as many have pointed out, even if you loaded up trucks carrying the containers away —the warehouses and distribution centers and stores are not open 24hours a day.

So the 50-60 super cargo freight ships off of LA and Long Beach will be there for a long time.

[lemming]

Current ADM on all GT3s is well north of $50,000.

Just asked out of curiosity.

[clyde]

This post is only meant to be a frame of reference between what Vroom (and other online retailers) buy cars for and what how they initially list them. So, as a singular point of reference, this Vroom listing for a 2019 Camaro ZL1 1LE for $70,999 was purchased for $62,000.



https://www.vroom.com/inventory/chev...FJ1R68K0116059

Summer 2020, Carvana bought my turbo for $19.2 and the initial listing was $25.

[lemming]

Clyde your datapoint with the ZL1 is depressing.

[clyde]

Originally Posted by lemming

Clyde your datapoint with the ZL1 is depressing.

Not sure what's depressing? The spread from buy to ask prices? How high or how low either or both of them are?

Edit: the spread is about what I'd expect, maybe even a little low.

[lemming]

Originally Posted by clyde

Not sure what's depressing? The spread from buy to ask prices? How high or how low either or both of them are?

Edit: the spread is about what I'd expect, maybe even a little low.

That ZL1 price is quite high. What depresses me is that this inflated market has no end in sight.

[dan]

Why does that depress you?