When will the used car market peak?

[robg]

Originally Posted by equ

Huh, I wonder if there is a story or if this dealer is in a time-capsule of pricing used cars 'fairly'. Looks like back in the day pricing. It's possible that people who want manual prefer coupes.

Yeah...that's an interesting one for sure. I was curious and just did a nationwide search on 1 series for sale. There isn't much and the only other 135 vert for sale has higher miles and they want 22k!
https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/l-Used...ting=307962127

[Josh (PA)]

Originally Posted by wdc330i

Um. This seems like a deal. Crazy low miles 135i with stick. Attention Josh in PA:

https://www.bmwusa.com/certified-pre...UN93578VE94208

That is an astonishingly good deal. Like I bet, either the car never existed or is salvage title good deal.

JST should buy this and give his daughter the 987

[wdc330i]

My Carvana offer has dropped almost $3k since early September. It's down from $37,320 to $34,489.

[clyde]

Originally Posted by wdc330i

My Carvana offer has dropped almost $3k since early September. It's down from $37,320 to $34,489.

Are you comparing two random data points, or have you been getting Carvana offers every day?

If the former, I wouldn't read too much into it. It may be a fair representation or one (or both) of the two days may be oddly high or low. Tracking every day, often at multiple points during the day, there are weird days when the offer is a couple $k high or low compared to the couple days around them (and sometimes one offer during the day is considerably higher or lower than the others that day).

Also, Carvana seems to prefer appliance cars to interesting/enthusiast cars.

FWIW, today vs June 27...Carvana's offer on the Camaro is about $5k lower now than June 27 while their offer for my RAV4 has gone up about $3k. Meanwhile, Carmax's offers on both cars today are very close to what they were on June 27...and the Camaro offer is about $9k higher than Carvana's. (Yesterday's Carmax offer on the Camaro was $1200 higher than today's and the largest spread I've seen between Carmax and Carvana on the Camaro has been nearly $13k.)

[Jeff_DML]

Originally Posted by clyde

Are you comparing two random data points, or have you been getting Carvana offers every day?

If the former, I wouldn't read too much into it. It may be a fair representation or one (or both) of the two days may be oddly high or low. Tracking every day, often at multiple points during the day, there are weird days when the offer is a couple $k high or low compared to the couple days around them (and sometimes one offer during the day is considerably higher or lower than the others that day).

Also, Carvana seems to prefer appliance cars to interesting/enthusiast cars.

FWIW, today vs June 27...Carvana's offer on the Camaro is about $5k lower now than June 27 while their offer for my RAV4 has gone up about $3k. Meanwhile, Carmax's offers on both cars today are very close to what they were on June 27...and the Camaro offer is about $9k higher than Carvana's. (Yesterday's Carmax offer on the Camaro was $1200 higher than today's and the largest spread I've seen between Carmax and Carvana on the Camaro has been nearly $13k.)

Do you have some sort of app that checks for you?

[lemming]

Originally Posted by clyde

Are you comparing two random data points, or have you been getting Carvana offers every day?

If the former, I wouldn't read too much into it. It may be a fair representation or one (or both) of the two days may be oddly high or low. Tracking every day, often at multiple points during the day, there are weird days when the offer is a couple $k high or low compared to the couple days around them (and sometimes one offer during the day is considerably higher or lower than the others that day).

Also, Carvana seems to prefer appliance cars to interesting/enthusiast cars.

FWIW, today vs June 27...Carvana's offer on the Camaro is about $5k lower now than June 27 while their offer for my RAV4 has gone up about $3k. Meanwhile, Carmax's offers on both cars today are very close to what they were on June 27...and the Camaro offer is about $9k higher than Carvana's. (Yesterday's Carmax offer on the Camaro was $1200 higher than today's and the largest spread I've seen between Carmax and Carvana on the Camaro has been nearly $13k.)

This makes sense though. a RAV4 will move faster so it’s a known known. Camaro is a niche market on the eastern seaboard where the car market can be quite seasonal.

[clyde]

Originally Posted by Jeff_DML

Do you have some sort of app that checks for you?

I have plenty of 30 second periods during the day while on brain dead calls where I can type a couple numbers and click a few boxes.

[clyde]

Originally Posted by lemming

This makes sense though. a RAV4 will move faster so it’s a known known. Camaro is a niche market on the eastern seaboard where the car market can be quite seasonal.

I think it has much more to do with the fact that Carvana's target customers want to buy appliance cars and aren't very interested in interesting cars. I've been following daily since summer 2019. Most of that time has been not-normal for auto sales, but seasonality does not seem to be a factor.

[wdc330i]

Originally Posted by clyde

I think it has much more to do with the fact that Carvana's target customers want to buy appliance cars and aren't very interested in interesting cars. I've been following daily since summer 2019. Most of that time has been not-normal for auto sales, but seasonality does not seem to be a factor.

Yep. Just comparing Carvana offers, but usually only every month or so. There's no easy way to let them know I have the M-Performance LSD, however, without it getting dinged as a mod. So, likely I would get more marketing it to enthusiasts (except for the whole automatic thing.)

[lemming]

Originally Posted by clyde

I think it has much more to do with the fact that Carvana's target customers want to buy appliance cars and aren't very interested in interesting cars. I've been following daily since summer 2019. Most of that time has been not-normal for auto sales, but seasonality does not seem to be a factor.

This might be an easy answer, but do you think Carvana is lowering its standards on cars that it will re-sell because supply is so tight?

I’m curious about this in general because dealer lots are so sparse right now.

When I was at the dealer earlier today for an oil change (free) —they were parking the vehicles in diagonal to “fill” the lot which is normally a rectangular grid of vehicles so it would not look empty.

I have never in my life seen something like that on a dealer lot.