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Old 01-04-2019, 02:21 PM   #1
FC
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Where are they now?

I know I live in a wealthy part of the country, but since I moved to the US, I've always been fascinated by how quickly the population of cars turns over.

Of course, some cars get totalled in accidents and floods. Others become prohibitively expensive to keep running - but can't can happen to a car that is only a handful of years old except for the relatively small percentage of people who rack up 25k+ miles a year. Is that it? Is it as simple as they get crashed and old?

Does supply and demand move cars to other areas of the country? That can't be a big contributor.

But if we pick a car we are all familiar with, like say an E90 3er, where are all those now?

I still see plenty, but nowhere near the number 5 years ago. Where are they now?
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Old 01-04-2019, 02:47 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FC View Post
I know I live in a wealthy part of the country, but since I moved to the US, I've always been fascinated by how quickly the population of cars turns over.

Of course, some cars get totalled in accidents and floods. Others become prohibitively expensive to keep running - but can't can happen to a car that is only a handful of years old except for the relatively small percentage of people who rack up 25k+ miles a year. Is that it? Is it as simple as they get crashed and old?

Does supply and demand move cars to other areas of the country? That can't be a big contributor.

But if we pick a car we are all familiar with, like say an E90 3er, where are all those now?

I still see plenty, but nowhere near the number 5 years ago. Where are they now?
Here's one that may bring back memories.

http://enthusiastauto.com/qsearch/?i...orm_display=51
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Old 01-04-2019, 02:55 PM   #3
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Here's one that may bring back memories.

http://enthusiastauto.com/qsearch/?i...orm_display=51
That's ridiculously close to my car except for the wheels.
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Old 01-04-2019, 03:38 PM   #4
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Labor is extremely expensive. Keeping an older car on the road costs a lot and people just aren’t inclined to do it. Likewise, insurance companies are aggressive about totaling (see high labor costs), so it’s very easy for minor damage to take a car off the road.

On top of that, the 2007 to 2010 or so cohort of cars didn’t exactly sell well compared to what they should have due to the recession.
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Old 01-04-2019, 03:55 PM   #5
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And yet the average age of operating cars on the road keeps increasing. It's now 10.1-11.6 years (not sure how I'm reading this" https://www.bts.gov/content/average-...-united-states)

The cars and SUVs in your yuppie neighborhoods make their way downmarket. If you're not seeing them, it's willful ignorance. I see plenty of older vehicles every day. More in certain parts of town than others. Outside of metro areas, it's pretty stark. Check out the ages of vehicles in rural Walmarts, Waffle Houses and bars sometime. Travel through the country off-Interstate and note the cars and trucks in driveways and yards.

Don't believe your bubble.
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Old 01-04-2019, 03:58 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nick M3 View Post
Labor is extremely expensive. Keeping an older car on the road costs a lot and people just arenít inclined to do it. Likewise, insurance companies are aggressive about totaling (see high labor costs), so itís very easy for minor damage to take a car off the road.

On top of that, the 2007 to 2010 or so cohort of cars didnít exactly sell well compared to what they should have due to the recession.
But those totaled cars aren't crushed. They're resold, fixed, and put back in service.

I'm often amazed at how many moderately aged BMWs and MBs I see in pretty ratty shape driving around.
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Old 01-04-2019, 04:02 PM   #7
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But those totaled cars aren't crushed. They're resold, fixed, and put back in service.

I'm often amazed at how many moderately aged BMWs and MBs I see in pretty ratty shape driving around.
Also true.

I think that the big factor is that in areas where people buy new cars, they lease them. Whereas they might have held on to a car before, today, they turn it in.
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Old 01-04-2019, 04:12 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by Nick M3 View Post
Also true.

I think that the big factor is that in areas where people buy new cars, they lease them. Whereas they might have held on to a car before, today, they turn it in.
Where do they go after that? (Which I think was FC's question.)

Something I forgot, but some (a lot?) may be going overseas. I know it happens adn has been growing, but don't know what numbers are like.
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Old 01-04-2019, 04:33 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by clyde View Post
Where do they go after that? (Which I think was FC's question.)

Something I forgot, but some (a lot?) may be going overseas. I know it happens adn has been growing, but don't know what numbers are like.
I think quite a few make it down to Mexico, at least in my area. And as you mentioned, "downmarket" so FC just needs to get out of his bubble
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Old 01-04-2019, 08:45 PM   #10
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I remember when I worked in Japan that used cars had almost no market. Most JDM vehicles get exported once they are 4-5+ Years old. I worked there during the summer of 2000 and rarely saw cars more than 5 years old on the road.

But you do see used JDM cars in places like Australia and Canada. The island my in-laws live on in Canada has a bunch of RHD JDM vehicles on it. mostly small minivans and delivery trucks, but a few interesting things like a Nissan S-Cargo...
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