Anybody think this will become the norm?

Josh (PA) · 12-01-2022, 07:31 AM

Curious if anyone else thinks human sized drones will supplant wheeled cars in the next 25 or so years?

It seems like this technology is progressing even more quickly than EV auto tech. If we find a good lightweight battery technology that can be mass produced, why not skip the road and bee line to your desintation in a flying "car"

Nick M3 · 12-01-2022, 10:18 AM

Short answer: No.

Longer answer: There's no way that these won't have a colossal accident rate in production. They also won't be particularly light or efficient once they have something approaching consumer acceptable margins of safety built in.

They're progressing very quickly right now because they're at early stages of development. They haven't run into a maturity wall yet because they're still in the easy parts.

JST · 12-01-2022, 11:35 AM

The real barrier to these isn’t even technological; it’s regulatory. The FAA moves slooooow on new tech. We’re still waiting for small UAS to be authorized to fly routinely beyond visual line of sight of the operator, and it’s been 11 years since Congress directed the FAA to integrate drones into the airspace.

Assuming you get the FAA wrinkles worked out, you then have NIMBY issues with where these things can take off and land. Places where people can afford to buy them will likely be wealthy enough to prohibit them at the local level.

I do think there’s a huge and exciting potential for these to jumpstart development in other countries that have poor road infrastructure, the same way you’ve seen some places skip wired communication networks and go straight to wireless. But that’s more likely to be be flying buses and trucks rather than flying cars.

12-01-2022, 07:31 AM	#1
Josh (PA) Hello. Join Date: Mar 2004 Carmudgeonly Ride: '09 X3, '11 328xiT, '11 135i C, '17 c2, '19 X5 Location: Downingtown, PA Posts: 5,531	Anybody think this will become the norm? Curious if anyone else thinks human sized drones will supplant wheeled cars in the next 25 or so years? It seems like this technology is progressing even more quickly than EV auto tech. If we find a good lightweight battery technology that can be mass produced, why not skip the road and bee line to your desintation in a flying "car" __________________ Josh (PA) - '19 X5 '17 991.2 C2 Cab '11 135i Convertible '11 328xiT '09 X3

12-01-2022, 10:18 AM	#2
Nick M3 Relic Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Bethesda, MD Posts: 12,458	Short answer: No. Longer answer: There's no way that these won't have a colossal accident rate in production. They also won't be particularly light or efficient once they have something approaching consumer acceptable margins of safety built in. They're progressing very quickly right now because they're at early stages of development. They haven't run into a maturity wall yet because they're still in the easy parts. __________________ 2011 M3 2006 Sierra 2500HD 4WD LBZ/Allison 2004 X5 3.0i 6MT 1995 M3 S50B32 1990 325is 1989 M3 S54B32 Hers: 1989 325iX 1996 911 Turbo

12-01-2022, 11:35 AM	#3
JST 195 Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 24,611	The real barrier to these isn’t even technological; it’s regulatory. The FAA moves slooooow on new tech. We’re still waiting for small UAS to be authorized to fly routinely beyond visual line of sight of the operator, and it’s been 11 years since Congress directed the FAA to integrate drones into the airspace. Assuming you get the FAA wrinkles worked out, you then have NIMBY issues with where these things can take off and land. Places where people can afford to buy them will likely be wealthy enough to prohibit them at the local level. I do think there’s a huge and exciting potential for these to jumpstart development in other countries that have poor road infrastructure, the same way you’ve seen some places skip wired communication networks and go straight to wireless. But that’s more likely to be be flying buses and trucks rather than flying cars.