Tesla Model S waffling

[ZBB]

Originally Posted by bren

Tesla's current idea that I have to come back and get my original pack is dumb. No derivative of that plan will work.

I'm not an accountant, but certainly someone can figure out the expected life/battery cost and amortize that into the price of the cars - then battery swaps are done for some fixed fee akin to filling up with gas and fresh packs are always available for everyone.

That was basically A Better Place's model. The battery was leased separately from the car. You could then go to a swapping station and swap out to a different battery.

They went BK...

[bren]

Originally Posted by ZBB

That was basically A Better Place's model. The battery was leased separately from the car. You could then go to a swapping station and swap out to a different battery.

They went BK...

I guess they needed a better accountant.

It can never work any other way. Nobody is paying $4k to swap a battery pack, and like JV said, nobody will want to risk their "new" pack on a dud if there's no controls and a guarantee that you can just swap it back.

Ed can drive around shopping gas stations all day if he wants, but for me, I can't wait to do my refilling from home while I sleep.

[John V]

Originally Posted by bren

I guess they needed a better accountant.

It can never work any other way. Nobody is paying $4k to swap a battery pack, and like JV said, nobody will want to risk their "new" pack on a dud if there's no controls and a guarantee that you can just swap it back.

Ed can drive around shopping gas stations all day if he wants, but for me, I can't wait to do my refilling from home while I sleep.

Yes... this is exactly what I was getting at. I don't see the swapping thing working out unless they disconnect the battery from the vehicle ownership, which doesn't seem likely given that it's 50% of the "value" built in.

I'm with you. Understood that the infrastructure is very limited right now and the charging rate is still not ideal (but think of where the infrastructure for electric vehicles was a year ago! It's come a very long way). I can't wait for the day when I don't have to visit a "gas" station unless I'm driving several hundred miles.

[JST]

Originally Posted by ZBB

That was basically A Better Place's model. The battery was leased separately from the car. You could then go to a swapping station and swap out to a different battery.

They went BK...

They went bankrupt, but then again so did Blink...and blink was just putting in charging stations.

There is a potential business model and business here, but as with Supercharging it's one that has to be done in support of and in conjunction with a compelling product. Tesla can make it happen, but the question is whether it makes sense to build the infrastructure to do fast swaps when supercharging exists as an alternative.

The idea of "battery refresh" is a different issue, though related--swaps provide a way to ensure that you don't end up with a 100K car that can only go 20 miles on a charge, like the OG iPhone sitting at the bottom of your sock drawer. But you can have a swap/refresh model that isn't a "fast swap" model, and it's a lot easier, since you could just do it at the service center.

On the call the other day, Musk acknowledged that they need to develop a real lease model. I am certain that is one of their priorities. Once they do that, the issue of degradation will become less pressing, both because the original purchasers won't care and because the company could start offering a CPO-line of used cars with refreshed batteries, where needed.

[ZBB]

Originally Posted by John V

I'm with you. Understood that the infrastructure is very limited right now and the charging rate is still not ideal (but think of where the infrastructure for electric vehicles was a year ago! It's come a very long way). I can't wait for the day when I don't have to visit a "gas" station unless I'm driving several hundred miles.

That day is already here for me...

"Slow" charging works just fine for normal day-to-day driving. I drove 94 miles yesterday (I ran an errand in the evening and met my wife and daughter for dinner -- so had an extra ~30 miles from my regular commute). Plugged in when I got home dinner. The car started charging at 2am (I use scheduled charging), and it was ready to go when I left the house at 5:45am.

I normally charge the car to 75% (keeping the battery closer to 50% is better for longevity). That gives me ~150 miles of range -- and I typically plug in each night with 70-80 miles remaining. ~2.5 hours of charging is all that's needed to replace that range each night. I then leave the house with a 75% charge each morning.

And if I expect to need more than 150 miles the next day, I can change the slider an put it at 90% (~180 miles) or go to 100% (~200 miles). I typically know my driving needs for the next day, so this is not a problem for me.

[Sharp11]

Originally Posted by ZBB

That day is already here for me...

"Slow" charging works just fine for normal day-to-day driving. I drove 94 miles yesterday (I ran an errand in the evening and met my wife and daughter for dinner -- so had an extra ~30 miles from my regular commute). Plugged in when I got home dinner. The car started charging at 2am (I use scheduled charging), and it was ready to go when I left the house at 5:45am.

I normally charge the car to 75% (keeping the battery closer to 50% is better for longevity). That gives me ~150 miles of range -- and I typically plug in each night with 70-80 miles remaining. ~2.5 hours of charging is all that's needed to replace that range each night. I then leave the house with a 75% charge each morning.

And if I expect to need more than 150 miles the next day, I can change the slider an put it at 90% (~180 miles) or go to 100% (~200 miles). I typically know my driving needs for the next day, so this is not a problem for me.

If they build something that weighs in at half the Tesla for half the price, and twice or three times the range AND it can be "fueled" from home ...

They'd have me as a customer.

[robg]

Originally Posted by Sharp11

If they build something that weighs in at half the Tesla for half the price, and twice or three times the range AND it can be "fueled" from home ...

They'd have me as a customer.

Those are pretty high expectations.... half the weight would be something like 2200 pounds and I don't think there any new cars sold in the US anywhere near that weight. And 3x the range would be like 600-700 miles which very few ICE cars come close to. I do think close to half the price, and some weight reduction will occur when they introduce the Model E however. But I'd expect the range to be no greater than the current 85 model.

[JST]

Originally Posted by Sharp11

If they build something that weighs in at half the Tesla for half the price, and twice or three times the range AND it can be "fueled" from home ...

They'd have me as a customer.

I'd buy a unicorn, too, but only if it was free and someone agreed to come shovel the rainbow poop.

Seriously, though, as ZBB points out above, for the vast majority of circumstances the Model S already has more than enough range, and charging from home is easy enough. Cost is a barrier, but psychology is a bigger one.

[Josh (PA)]

Originally Posted by JST

I'd buy a unicorn, too, but only if it was free and someone agreed to come shovel the rainbow poop.

Seriously, though, as ZBB points out above, for the vast majority of circumstances the Model S already has more than enough range, and charging from home is easy enough. Cost is a barrier, but psychology is a bigger one.

I was starting to convince myself of this until I saw $40k for a battery pack. Holy shit, that looms as a large hurdle to vehicle resale total cost of ownership, etc. Makes the Porsche IMS bearing thing seem trivial.

[JST]

Originally Posted by Josh (PA)

I was starting to convince myself of this until I saw $40k for a battery pack. Holy shit, that looms as a large hurdle to vehicle resale total cost of ownership, etc. Makes the Porsche IMS bearing thing seem trivial.

Get the Resale Value Guarantee and see where things stand in 3 years. It's something that I am wary about (and the fires, too), but it doesn't strike me as a deal-breaker at this point, especially since batteries are likely to get less expensive over time.

Of course, I have a Porsche with an IMS bearing, too, so maybe I just like to live on the wild side.