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Old 03-18-2019, 10:11 AM   #41
JST
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rumatt View Post
We are stuck in a loop. Can you help me break it?

1. You: other brands will make Model Y obsolete in 2 years
2. Me: the supercharger network will remain a huge differentiator for Tesla
3. You: supercharges aren't fast enough.
4. Me: Huh? At least they exist, and are vastly better than the competition
5. GOTO 1

You "give the nod" to the brand names despite them having vastly inferior charging networks? Do you not think being able to take a road trip in your car is important to EV car buyers?

Then you mentioned inconvenience of driving BOS - NYC which suggests you actually care a lot about road trips. Have you compared the experience of making that trip in a Tesla to all the other brands you're giving the "nod" to. Hint: it's a huge win for Tesla.

Then you mention theoretical max charging speed. Even if the Taycan can do a full charge in 30 minutes (we'll see if that plays out in the real world) it doesn't help you if there are no chargers on your route. Are you arguing that in the 2 year time-frame we're discussing there will be as many Porsche charging stations as there are Tesla Superchargers?
It's really hard to anticipate what Porsche is going to end up with. They claim 350 kW charging available at 300 locations by summer, as part of the $2B EPA settlement that VW entered into.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/p...ycan-charging/

If they manage that, I'll be impressed--but 300 locations is still not that many, nationwide. It looks like a pluarality of the investment will be happening in CA.

Here is a map of what they've got so far:

https://www.electrifyamerica.com/locate-charger

The V3 Supercharger is not as powerful (250 kW), but can still provide 75 miles of charge in 5 minutes.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-supe...-charge-speed/
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Old 03-18-2019, 10:18 AM   #42
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The other annoyance of all of this are the varying standards... so now we will have Tesla, vw, jlr and whatever else standard coming along. I get it that this is normal early capitalism but I sense there are going to be a lot of abandoned standards and stations in some years. I do hope we ultimately coalesce to one decent standard over time. As long as networks are competitive advantages though, I suspect it may take a while.

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Old 03-18-2019, 01:09 PM   #43
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I’m hearing there are 2 things in Lemming’s mind, but I see there being 3 separate items being discussed. This turned into a long post...

Fresh vehicle designs should be looked separately from charging capability. Charging access is also another thing to look at, but that is also different than capability. All will be going into buying decisions — and both of the charging items are completely new when someone is looking at their first EV.

As for fresh designs... of course some of the legacy automakers will have an advantage in some people’s eyes since they are bringing out new cars over the next 2 years. But so far, that hasn’t made the iPace a big seller. I haven’t driven and iPace, but I did get to sit in one — it’s a very nice design, but not really a Model X competitor. It’s only 5 seats and more car like than suv like (it has a little bit higher ride height...). We’ll see how Tesla handles the next Model S — will it be a reboot on the current platform, or will they move it to a stretched version of the 3? I have a feeling we’ll know more in about a year (since the Model S is definitely at the end of its 7-8 year cycle...

For charging, you have to look at both capability and access. Capability here is what type of chargers are available and how fast those chargers are. Access goes into where chargers are and how well that network works for road trips.

For L2 charging there are tons of options. This is most important at home, but also has a role to play for road tripping. Don’t underestimate how L2 helps provide charging — they work great for charging overnight at a hotel (and tons of hotels now offer charging, many offer both Tesla or J1772). On our road trips, we chose hotels partly for charging - and in some cases, it was essential since we were off the Supercharger highway. Charging at a hotel with charging is fantastic — you can get a full charge overnight. You do risk not being able to access the charger —- I stayed at one hotel where both charger spots were ICEd, but I was able to back in close to the motorcycles in one stall and the cable reached to my car (and i left a note on my dash saying I’d move the car by 8am). At another hotel, there were 2 chargers, and about 4 guests with EVs, but we all took turns and it worked out (the hotel offered to assist and call the other guests if needed).

For L3, there are starting to be more non-Tesla options. Here’s some thoughts:

- Tesla’s Supercharger network is by far the most common. Most deliver up to 120kW, and they just introduced the V3 that peaks at 250kW (only 2 current locations, but it sounds like they will be updating older locations over the next year or so). Tesla also has "urban" Superchargers, which are capped at a peak of 72kW (and it looks like Tesla has 3 of these sites in Boston/Cambridge). For charge times, I’ve Supercharged over 150 times, and have an average charging time of about 45 min — but I also had the smallest battery offered in the S (60kWh), which limited the charging rates I could get — it would peak at 105kW, but very quickly dropped below 60kW and then was in the taper —- we expect that our average charging time in the 3 will be closer to 30 min. In the S, a full charge could take ~75 min, but I only did that a handful of times where I really needed the range since we were heading into dead spots on the Supercharger highway. Many of our stops were well under 30 min since we only needed a boost to get to the next charger, or were optortunistic stops (someone needing a bio-break). As for wait times — I’ve only arrived at a Supercharger 2-3 times where all stalls are full (most are 8 or 12 stalls now, some bigger). The longest wait for a charger was about 5 min. As the V3 Supercharger rolls out, charge times will decrease since each car will need less time at the charger, and that should further reduce wait times.

CHAdeMO — this is the Japan-spec for DC charging used by the Leaf and a few other cars. Tesla also has an adapter. Most of the avail CHAdeMO sites are single-charger stations and many are capped at 50kW. The Tesla adapter maxes out at ~44kW — so the charge times are a bit longer — easily an hour to get to an 80%+ charge. Many of the newer stations are including the DCFC connector and a CHAdeMO connector.

DCFC — this is becoming the most widely accepted standard. The US and EU connector is a bit different, but is the standard that most automakers are adopting. This is also the type of charger being built-out by Electrify America (which is the group funded by VW’s dieselgate settlement). Electrify America is building out a network of chargers, with many sites having 8 stalls (I saw one under construction near my house) — so are similar to the Superchargers, and its pretty clear they are using the Supercharger network as a model. Theoretically, these can charge at up to 300kW, but those speeds may not be avail now, and many cars will only be able to support a fraction of that output (based on battery design choices).

Porsche — they’ve been touting the high speed charging of the Taycan, but I believe that will only be avail at their "Turbocharger" locations, which will be a Porsche dealerships. How many of those are there between cities? They are using the DCFC standard, so you can use the Electirfy America network — but they are years behind Tesla at this point, so building a network out that allows road trips — but not as fast.

As for charging times, most quotes you see are not for a full charge — but estimates of going from 10% to 90% — ie an 80% charge. Batteries need to taper as they get more full. Tesla is quoting that a Model 3 will do that in 20 min on a V3 Supercharger. The Model 3 has a 75kWh battery, so you are adding 60kW in 20 min, which is an average of 180kW over that time — not bad. But if you arrive at 50% charge, you will likely need ~14-15 min to get to 90%, not 10 min — that is due to the taper.

Charging an EV is a mindset change — and its not for everyone (at least not yet). It works for us. 80-90% of my charging is at home — it takes just a few seconds to plug in each evening. For road trips, the stops are a bit longer than an ICE — but we found it relaxing. Most of our road trip gas stops took ~5 min to fill the tank, then we’d move the car and go in for a bio break or to get a snack — so the total stop time was 15-20 min (and longer if you needed lunch/dinner). In the Tesla, we plug in, then go find a place to get a snack and do the bio-break. 30-45 min later we are ready to go. On trip that needed 2-3 charging stops, it adds an extra 30-45 min to the overall trip (with over 8 hours of driving)...
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Old 03-18-2019, 01:15 PM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by equ View Post
The other annoyance of all of this are the varying standards... so now we will have Tesla, vw, jlr and whatever else standard coming along. I get it that this is normal early capitalism but I sense there are going to be a lot of abandoned standards and stations in some years. I do hope we ultimately coalesce to one decent standard over time. As long as networks are competitive advantages though, I suspect it may take a while.

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There are “only” 3 L3 standards used in the US:
  1. Tesla — currently the largest network. Based on DCFC, but with Tesla’s much simpler and easier to use plug
  2. DCFC (what the Europeans are using). Uses the “J1772 Combo” plug — quite a large plug that is not as easy to insert as Teslas...
  3. CHAdeMO (Japan standard — mostly Nissan at this point, although Tesla sells an adapter that works on the S/X and hopefully the 3 soon). Also has a large plug, sometimes hard to disconnect (I had to hit the emergency power off button once...)

Like a lot of standards in the US, multiple options are available. Not really unlike USB and FireWire (where USB won, but is now adopting simpler/smaller plugs). Perhaps that is what will happen to charging networks?

There’s also regional flavors:
  1. DCFC is the same standard, but with a different plug used in Europe
  2. China standard — China mandated a single standard
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Old 03-18-2019, 03:49 PM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZBB View Post
I’m hearing there are 2 things in Lemming’s mind, but I see there being 3 separate items being discussed. This turned into a long post...



Fresh vehicle designs should be looked separately from charging capability. Charging access is also another thing to look at, but that is also different than capability. All will be going into buying decisions — and both of the charging items are completely new when someone is looking at their first EV.



As for fresh designs... of course some of the legacy automakers will have an advantage in some people’s eyes since they are bringing out new cars over the next 2 years. But so far, that hasn’t made the iPace a big seller. I haven’t driven and iPace, but I did get to sit in one — it’s a very nice design, but not really a Model X competitor. It’s only 5 seats and more car like than suv like (it has a little bit higher ride height...). We’ll see how Tesla handles the next Model S — will it be a reboot on the current platform, or will they move it to a stretched version of the 3? I have a feeling we’ll know more in about a year (since the Model S is definitely at the end of its 7-8 year cycle...



For charging, you have to look at both capability and access. Capability here is what type of chargers are available and how fast those chargers are. Access goes into where chargers are and how well that network works for road trips.



For L2 charging there are tons of options. This is most important at home, but also has a role to play for road tripping. Don’t underestimate how L2 helps provide charging — they work great for charging overnight at a hotel (and tons of hotels now offer charging, many offer both Tesla or J1772). On our road trips, we chose hotels partly for charging - and in some cases, it was essential since we were off the Supercharger highway. Charging at a hotel with charging is fantastic — you can get a full charge overnight. You do risk not being able to access the charger —- I stayed at one hotel where both charger spots were ICEd, but I was able to back in close to the motorcycles in one stall and the cable reached to my car (and i left a note on my dash saying I’d move the car by 8am). At another hotel, there were 2 chargers, and about 4 guests with EVs, but we all took turns and it worked out (the hotel offered to assist and call the other guests if needed).



For L3, there are starting to be more non-Tesla options. Here’s some thoughts:



- Tesla’s Supercharger network is by far the most common. Most deliver up to 120kW, and they just introduced the V3 that peaks at 250kW (only 2 current locations, but it sounds like they will be updating older locations over the next year or so). Tesla also has "urban" Superchargers, which are capped at a peak of 72kW (and it looks like Tesla has 3 of these sites in Boston/Cambridge). For charge times, I’ve Supercharged over 150 times, and have an average charging time of about 45 min — but I also had the smallest battery offered in the S (60kWh), which limited the charging rates I could get — it would peak at 105kW, but very quickly dropped below 60kW and then was in the taper —- we expect that our average charging time in the 3 will be closer to 30 min. In the S, a full charge could take ~75 min, but I only did that a handful of times where I really needed the range since we were heading into dead spots on the Supercharger highway. Many of our stops were well under 30 min since we only needed a boost to get to the next charger, or were optortunistic stops (someone needing a bio-break). As for wait times — I’ve only arrived at a Supercharger 2-3 times where all stalls are full (most are 8 or 12 stalls now, some bigger). The longest wait for a charger was about 5 min. As the V3 Supercharger rolls out, charge times will decrease since each car will need less time at the charger, and that should further reduce wait times.



CHAdeMO — this is the Japan-spec for DC charging used by the Leaf and a few other cars. Tesla also has an adapter. Most of the avail CHAdeMO sites are single-charger stations and many are capped at 50kW. The Tesla adapter maxes out at ~44kW — so the charge times are a bit longer — easily an hour to get to an 80%+ charge. Many of the newer stations are including the DCFC connector and a CHAdeMO connector.



DCFC — this is becoming the most widely accepted standard. The US and EU connector is a bit different, but is the standard that most automakers are adopting. This is also the type of charger being built-out by Electrify America (which is the group funded by VW’s dieselgate settlement). Electrify America is building out a network of chargers, with many sites having 8 stalls (I saw one under construction near my house) — so are similar to the Superchargers, and its pretty clear they are using the Supercharger network as a model. Theoretically, these can charge at up to 300kW, but those speeds may not be avail now, and many cars will only be able to support a fraction of that output (based on battery design choices).



Porsche — they’ve been touting the high speed charging of the Taycan, but I believe that will only be avail at their "Turbocharger" locations, which will be a Porsche dealerships. How many of those are there between cities? They are using the DCFC standard, so you can use the Electirfy America network — but they are years behind Tesla at this point, so building a network out that allows road trips — but not as fast.



As for charging times, most quotes you see are not for a full charge — but estimates of going from 10% to 90% — ie an 80% charge. Batteries need to taper as they get more full. Tesla is quoting that a Model 3 will do that in 20 min on a V3 Supercharger. The Model 3 has a 75kWh battery, so you are adding 60kW in 20 min, which is an average of 180kW over that time — not bad. But if you arrive at 50% charge, you will likely need ~14-15 min to get to 90%, not 10 min — that is due to the taper.



Charging an EV is a mindset change — and its not for everyone (at least not yet). It works for us. 80-90% of my charging is at home — it takes just a few seconds to plug in each evening. For road trips, the stops are a bit longer than an ICE — but we found it relaxing. Most of our road trip gas stops took ~5 min to fill the tank, then we’d move the car and go in for a bio break or to get a snack — so the total stop time was 15-20 min (and longer if you needed lunch/dinner). In the Tesla, we plug in, then go find a place to get a snack and do the bio-break. 30-45 min later we are ready to go. On trip that needed 2-3 charging stops, it adds an extra 30-45 min to the overall trip (with over 8 hours of driving)...


Thank you. That’s helps explain the travel time with charging mixed in.

How does your experience work in more urban environment? It’s probably more orderly to charge at supercharger stations along highways because everyone wants to go on their merry way as soon as possible. How do you get cars plugged in in the city but also kick people off efficiently if there is a queue of cars?
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Old 03-18-2019, 03:54 PM   #46
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Thank you. That’s helps explain the travel time with charging mixed in.

How does your experience work in more urban environment? It’s probably more orderly to charge at supercharger stations along highways because everyone wants to go on their merry way as soon as possible. How do you get cars plugged in in the city but also kick people off efficiently if there is a queue of cars?
Garages with valets are actually fairly easy, because the valets just do it. I don't drive to NYC very often, but the last time I did I found a garage with a Tesla charger on the Best Parking app, made a reservation, and the valets took care of plugging the car in overnight. Was seamless from my perspective.
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Old 03-18-2019, 04:47 PM   #47
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Great post, ZBB, thanks for clarifying the charger varieties.

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Old 03-18-2019, 04:59 PM   #48
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Does Tesla make a DCFC adapter yet? I assume it’s technically possible?


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Old 03-18-2019, 05:22 PM   #49
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No, no CCS adapter yet. Yes, it should be technically possible.
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Old 03-18-2019, 07:20 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by rumatt View Post
Roughtly 1/10th the time it takes the competition on their level 2 chargers.

Why do you keep switching the discussion?

You said:



How is the Model Y going to be obsolete in 2 years after a bunch of competitors produce less desirable products? That is what I'm asking you about. I am NOT advocating or arguing that EV's are for everyone, despite you continuing to go down that path.


I was asking about charge time. Excuse it’s essential to understand the benefit of EV propulsion with the time penalty of charging on a road trip.

Second: the Y is funny looking. I’m extrapolating based on how the etron GT looks and how the Taycan looks that now the Germans are taking this seriously. And when all of the tech specs like range and charging are grossly similar, I think the Tesla first mover advantage is gone.
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