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Old 09-22-2021, 07:52 PM   #241
wdc330i
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Apropos. I can’t imagine ever buying a used car from Carvana—unless I just want an appliance and an easy transaction.

That said, I’ve only ever bought one used car—and it was from the brand dealer with an extended warranty (the M3). It was a lease turn in to the same dealer who sold it.
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Old 09-22-2021, 09:01 PM   #242
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This might be an easy answer, but do you think Carvana is lowering its standards on cars that it will re-sell because supply is so tight?

I’m curious about this in general because dealer lots are so sparse right now.

When I was at the dealer earlier today for an oil change (free) —they were parking the vehicles in diagonal to “fill” the lot which is normally a rectangular grid of vehicles so it would not look empty.

I have never in my life seen something like that on a dealer lot.

Carvana and Vroom are definitely retailing older/higher mileage cars they might have passed on a year ago. But so are local dealers. At this point they will retail just about anything that rolls down the road on its own power without the wheels falling off (so long as they can get it to pass a state inspection &#128516 since it’s either that or they turn off the lights and go home.

As for empty lots, I actually have seen it before. During 2008 when gas prices were insane and everyone wanted to dump trucks in favor of high mpg cars, I was running a MINI store and we got to a few points where we were all sold out. I remember the day we had literally one car left on the ground - Mellow Yellow MCS. Someone rolled up in a H2 and was desperate to not have to fill up the tank one more time. Hated yellow, but we basically said - do you hate it enough to wait xx months for the next unsold car to come in? They drove the yellow car home that afternoon. 😄

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Old 09-22-2021, 09:16 PM   #243
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This might be an easy answer, but do you think Carvana is lowering its standards on cars that it will re-sell because supply is so tight?
No. I think they have black and white criteria for what they'll buy intending to resell and what they'll buy to wholesale. The wholesale intended vehicles get offers way below what they (their algorithm) think it might wholesale for in a worst case scenario to prevent against getting burned. The resale intended vehicles get offers based on what they (their algorithm) think they will be able to sell it for within X days. The algorithm almost certainly takes into account indicated condition against their data on what repairing those flaws will cost, their current stock of similar vehicles, probably inventories of similar models at competing dealers, etc, etc.

When I've compared in the past, it always looked like the difference between their offer-to-buy and offered-for-sale prices on $25-$50k cars has been about $7k. That didn't change from when things were normal pre-COVID through fall of 2020 when the car market seemed to be headed towards something like normalcy...before the chip shortage fucked everything up again. I haven't looked lately, but I'd expect it to be in the same ballpark.

I have heard some things from wholesale car buyers that Carvana has/has had buyers out there with instructions to buy everything at times to keep them in inventory and that has pushed prices upwards. I don't think that their standards have lowered, though, but they've been more willing to spend more money on cars they with less regard to condition.

Quote:
I’m curious about this in general because dealer lots are so sparse right now.

When I was at the dealer earlier today for an oil change (free) —they were parking the vehicles in diagonal to “fill” the lot which is normally a rectangular grid of vehicles so it would not look empty.

I have never in my life seen something like that on a dealer lot.
I've passed a lot of dealerships in the eastern half of the country this summer and it's been frightening how empty so many of them have been.
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Old 09-23-2021, 03:49 PM   #244
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My Carvana offer has dropped almost $3k since early September. It's down from $37,320 to $34,489.
Interesting. CarMax is $1k higher.
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Old 09-24-2021, 04:45 PM   #245
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Americans are going to extreme lengths to buy a car amid lingering shortage

After calling dealerships all around the country and discovering that his first choice — a Kia Telluride SUV — was going for $10,000 to $15,000 over MSRP, and his second choice — the Chrysler Pacifica plug-in hybrid - had waiting lists of 50-100+ customers, he did the unthinkable.

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Old 09-24-2021, 09:47 PM   #246
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Americans are going to extreme lengths to buy a car amid lingering shortage

After calling dealerships all around the country and discovering that his first choice — a Kia Telluride SUV — was going for $10,000 to $15,000 over MSRP, and his second choice — the Chrysler Pacifica plug-in hybrid - had waiting lists of 50-100+ customers, he did the unthinkable.

Wow. Scarcity makes you do crazy things…
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Old 09-25-2021, 11:51 PM   #247
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In Porsche world, the numbers say that their production is higher than last year. So that it’s a distribution issue. And it will resolve in Q3 and Q4.

And then the bubble will burst.

I don’t actually believe this. I think it will last well into Q2 2023. I don’t care if it’s not production but just demand combined with a global inability to get products unloaded from containers. I think demand and shipping constraints will not relax until mid 2023.
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Old 09-26-2021, 11:27 AM   #248
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In Porsche world, the numbers say that their production is higher than last year. So that it’s a distribution issue. And it will resolve in Q3 and Q4.

And then the bubble will burst.

I don’t actually believe this. I think it will last well into Q2 2023. I don’t care if it’s not production but just demand combined with a global inability to get products unloaded from containers. I think demand and shipping constraints will not relax until mid 2023.

What is the mix by model though - basically are they making a ton of Macan, Cayenne and Taycan and lower 718/911 mix?
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Old 09-30-2021, 10:16 PM   #249
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What is the mix by model though - basically are they making a ton of Macan, Cayenne and Taycan and lower 718/911 mix?
I don’t honestly know the model mix. If anything I would guess Taycan is prioritized because of the back orders are a crushing number.

I would know if I was ordering a new car….but I never buy Porsches new.
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Old 10-01-2021, 09:53 AM   #250
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What is the mix by model though - basically are they making a ton of Macan, Cayenne and Taycan and lower 718/911 mix?
Yes.

2021 Q2 sales
https://newsroom.porsche.com/en_US/2...021-24978.html
Quote:

Porsche Cars North America, Inc. (PCNA) today announced U.S. retail deliveries in the second quarter of 2021 totaled 18,958 vehicles, up 55.5 percent from the same period in 2020. The result was an all-time quarterly record, helping PCNA achieve its best-ever first half for retail sales. Deliveries in the first six months rose 50.2 percent to total 36,326 from January through June. PCNA is the sole licensed importer and distributor of the Porsche 911, 718 Boxster, 718 Cayman, Macan, Cayenne, Panamera and Taycan.

“The Porsche community of passionate customers is growing, and we are thrilled to welcome them. All of our cars are outperforming expectations, from the iconic 911 to our electric sports car, the Taycan, and our best-selling SUVs,” said Kjell Gruner, President and CEO of PCNA. “We have great momentum for this year, thanks to a fresh and exciting product line as well as our commitment with our dealers to delivering superb customer experiences.”

Second quarter deliveries of the Porsche 911 rose 3.6 percent from a year earlier. The Taycan’s popularity continued to accelerate, with deliveries in the first half already exceeding all of 2020, helped by new variants. Both SUV models, the Cayenne and Macan, performed strongly, as did the Panamera, which was up 45.2 percent as the refreshed model arrived in dealerships. The 718 Boxster and 718 Cayman – led by the new GT4 and GTS models – nearly doubled sales in the quarter from a year earlier.

Porsche Approved Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) U.S. sales rose 12 percent in Q2 to 7,477, for a total in the first half of 14,580 vehicles, up 16 percent from a year earlier.
Code:
Model 	April-June Sales 	Year to Date
               2021 	2020 	2021 	2020
ALL 911         2,326 	2,245 	5,108 	4,835
ALL 718 	  906 	  472 	2,412 	  872
ALL TAYCAN 	3,359 	  818 	5,367 	1,039
ALL PANAMERA 	1,265 	  871 	1,716 	2,055
ALL CAYENNE 	6,004 	3,822 	10,234 	7,644
ALL MACAN 	5,098 	3,964 	11,489 	7,741
TOTAL 	18,958 	11,994 	36,326 	24,186
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