Tesla Cybertruck - Page 7

John V · 11-24-2019, 02:07 PM

I mean, Elon's stuff has largely lived up to the pre-production specs, no? So long as you ignore the fact that the $35,000 model 3 still doesn't exist. In terms of performance, range, etc, it seems to me that the 3 has largely exceeded expectations.

Performance aside... autopilot is stupid, it's dangerous, IMO it should be a lot more tightly regulated than it is.

Again, when the charging infrastructure and battery tech supports long-distance driving (when using the truck as an actual truck, loaded down with gear and pulling a trailer), sign me up.

*clyde* · 11-24-2019, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rumatt

Wrong. I'm not against Tesla criticism. I'm against dumb arguments.

If you'd like to continue discussing this (which I would) please read the text I quoted, what I wrote, the questions I asked you, and respond to them.

Kthxbye

Could you then first define "shitload of people"? I don't typically associate that kind of phrase with portion of the US market that is wealthy enough to afford one, lives in a location that can support one, and is comfortable enough with the leap of faith it would take to rely on a Tesla as an ICE replacement (especially if it leaves the potential piece of the shitload without an ICE vehicle in their personal at-home fleet). But, you may have a different idea of what makes a shitload.

Electric only vehicle takeup is significantly hampered by the lack of ubiquitous and convenient charging ability that matches that of refueling ICE cars. It's made that much worse by smaller real world EV ranges compared to regular ICE cars. The proprietary protocols for charging don't help either. To be a little more quantitative the tipping point is probably something like 250 miles range on 7 minutes of charging available to anyone with any EV within 3 minutes of nearly any location in a metro area.

If industry and government focused effort on reaching that tipping point, the societal shift from ICE to EV would be substantially shorter than the path currently being taken. Every automaker doing their own thing and focusing on the wealthy rather than meeting the needs of the mass market just slows it down for everyone. And that's an avoidable mistake.

When it comes to who the Tesla charging model works for, it doesn't matter that it works for whatever you think is a "shitload of people." What Tesla's built will work for Teslalovers as long as replacement parts are available. The market just won't grow.

Focusing on the existing sliver of the market and holding it up as proof the model is successful is also an avoidable mistake.

If you only care about Tesla's quarterly success and that your car works for you today, sure, they're great. Today, at least.

If you care about transitioning the US (and global?) from the current ICE network to an EV network, Tesla is only kinda sorta helping in some areas, actively slowing down the transition in others, and creating problems that don't need to exist and will only get more difficult and necessary to solve in the future.

equ · 11-24-2019, 06:03 PM

Back on the more narrow topic of the cybertruck, Jason Torchinsky (whom I've had the pleasure to meet and converse with at his 'Robot, Take the Wheel' launch party) pretty much sums it up for me:

https://jalopnik.com/a-deep-look-at-...uck-1839993654

BTW, Jason is a deep well of automotive knowledge, generally focusing on design & utility. His book is a thought study on what auto-driving machines, should they actually come to fruition, may become... He compiles known ideas but adds his many of his own observations as well.. Also, while chit chatting, I found that he knew exactly about obscure Turkish domestic market only cars made in the 60's... What American knows about Anadol and its history? Anyway, he is funny, smart and open to the future and what he says about the truck is spot on for me.

JST · 11-24-2019, 08:46 PM

Clyde, you’re just making numbers up. I mean, sure, maybe the numbers you quoted are tipping points. Maybe they aren’t. I have no idea. Neither do you.

The idea that Tesla is somehow slowing down the transition to EVs by investing millions of dollars in building a fast charge network and churning out hundreds of thousands of long-range EVs is...odd. I tend to agree that at some point it may be desirable to have standardization for dc fast charging, but if my choice is between a tragedy of the commons standard with little investment and a proprietary standard that can justify pumping huge amounts of dollars into, I’ll take the latter—it certainly isn’t slowing down EV adoption.

As for your points about what constitutes a “shitload,” let’s say your points are all well taken, and the maximum addressable market for current EV tech is some fraction of the cars sold every year (exclude ppl with one car, ppl without easy access to charging, etc). Even ten percent of the cars sold every year is over a million cars, which is...idk if it’s a shitload, but it’s a lot, and I’d rather those cars be EVs than ICE.

Anyway. Ford’s in, VWs in, Daimler’s in. The rest will follow. At this point, thanks in no small part to Tesla showing it’s possible, transition to EVs is inevitable. Even if Tesla goes bankrupt tomorrow, they’ve done what they set out to do. And let’s assume that eventually SAE combo turns out to be the winning charging standard—it’s not like all that charging infrastructure Tesla has built will just disappear. Installing SAE combo equipment at those sites would be easy enough.

*clyde* · 11-24-2019, 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JST

Clyde, you’re just making numbers up. I mean, sure, maybe the numbers you quoted are tipping points. Maybe they aren’t. I have no idea. Neither do you.

I know better than to argue with religion and am feeling pretty foolish for taking Matt's bait.

I didn't quote any numbers, they're only my own educated guesses. I guess I don't blame you for thinking they have nothing to do with reality considering how rapid and smooth every previous attempt at changing human behavior to readily adopt the new, complicated, and inconvenient path over the ingrained, simple, and easy. Especially when the new way is more expensive.

I don't think any of disagree about the end state. It's how quickly we get there. There is an ever aging fleet to replace. It will take decades to reverse the current EV/ICE split of the current US fleet at the rate we're going (expecting EVs to take an ever increasing share of new car sales). The current average age of vehicles on US roads is 12 years, has continually increased every year since at least 1970 (outside of the late 80s seeing the high-quality early/mid 80s cars self destruct), and has consistently risen sharply each year since CARS ended in 2009. More importantly, perhaps, 10 or more year old portion of the fleet has increased substantially since 2009, as well.

JST · 11-24-2019, 10:16 PM

I don’t know where religion comes into this. Honestly, on the pure facts we’re not even really disagreeing—of course it will be years before all cars are EVs. Decades, even. And yeah, there’s a long road between here and there.

And I don’t pretend it’s seamless, but I have an advantage over you on that front, in that I’ve gone through it myself. So while many of the points you make are very valid (re cost and charging availability for apartment dwellers, especially), I also know that your deep seated and seemingly visceral skepticism about converting ppl to EVs is really overblown. Lots of people who buy an EV realize the transition is not so hard. Hell, my neighbor just bought a Bolt to go with his base model Mode S, and is now fully EV. Is that going to work for everyone? Obviously not. But it’s going to be a lot easier for a whole lot of people than you seem to be willing to admit.

*clyde* · 11-24-2019, 11:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JST

I have an advantage over you on that front, in that I’ve gone through it myself.

Meh. I know that an EV with Tesla 3 like specs would work for me in just about any use case I can see myself asking of it (which includes autocrossing many miles from home on a regular basis).

Everything else being equal, I don't know if I could have taken the plunge when you did, but there's nothing stopping me today other than it (the 3) is too expensive, ugly as sin, doesn't sound like it's fun to drive other than the power, and I don't want to support Tesla's and Musk's business practices with my wallet.

Quote:

So while many of the points you make are very valid (re cost and charging availability for apartment dwellers, especially), I also know that your deep seated and seemingly visceral skepticism about converting ppl to EVs is really overblown.

I'm continuously amazed at yours and others willingness and ability to dismiss those challenges with a wave of the hand as casual as the dotcom era dismissals of per-sale losses being made up by increased sale volume.

Quote:

Lots of people who buy an EV realize the transition is not so hard. Hell, my neighbor just bought a Bolt to go with his base model Mode S, and is now fully EV. But it’s going to be a lot easier for a whole lot of people than you seem to be willing to admit.

I don't know why you think that. Using someone living in the same bubble doesn't really support it.

rumatt · 11-25-2019, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clyde

Could you then first define "shitload of people"?

I have no idea. How many have they sold? A lot were sold and a lot of people are excited about buying them in the future.

But I've never argued they're for everyone and that ICE should die. What is completely baffling me is why you are arguing (or implying?) that if something doesn't work for everyone (or nearly everyone) it's a bad thing. Where is this coming from? I'm truly baffled.

Yesterday I installed a new LED light in my garage. It's cool. Not everyone has a garage so they probably can't enjoy it like I can. But I like mine. Why is this a problem?

Multiple times you've chimed in with this criticism that EV's only work for certain people. I'm like. Yep, OK fine... And? We could debate what percentage of the population that is. I suspect it's larger than you think it is, and smaller than a lot of Tesla fanboys think it is. But that's totally irrelevant. The question is - why does it enrage you that they don't work for everyone? And yet you're not enraged by my garage LED that I bought?

I fear you will reply talking about charging networks, and Elon being evil and putting your family at risk, and Teslas costing too much, and again slinging mud at anyone who likes their Teslas... but not answer the question of why my garage-requiring LED is OK but my Tesla requiring electricity makes it evil.

rumatt · 11-25-2019, 02:21 PM

So Elon is claiming that the window broke because hitting it with the sledge hammer cracked the glass. I'm not sure I'm buying it

https://www.motor1.com/news/384171/m...k-glass-broke/

I heard another youtube theory that the sledge hammer loosened the window, lowering it a bit, which gave it less support allowing it to break. Sounds fishy too, but more plausible than the sledge hammer invisibly cracking both windows.

JST · 11-25-2019, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rumatt

I have no idea. How many have they sold? A lot were sold and a lot of people are excited about buying them in the future.

But I've never argued they're for everyone and that ICE should die. What is completely baffling me is why you are arguing (or implying?) that if something doesn't work for everyone (or nearly everyone) it's a bad thing. Where is this coming from? I'm truly baffled.

Yesterday I installed a new LED light in my garage. It's cool. Not everyone has a garage so they probably can't enjoy it like I can. But I like mine. Why is this a problem?

Multiple times you've chimed in with this criticism that EV's only work for certain people. I'm like. Yep, OK fine... And? We could debate what percentage of the population that is. I suspect it's larger than you think it is, and smaller than a lot of Tesla fanboys think it is. But that's totally irrelevant. The question is - why does it enrage you that they don't work for everyone? And yet you're not enraged by my garage LED that I bought?

I fear you will reply talking about charging networks, and Elon being evil and putting your family at risk, and Teslas costing too much, and again slinging mud at anyone who likes their Teslas. But I fear it will not answer the question of why my garage-requiring LED is OK but my electricity-requiring Tesla is evil.

Yeah, exactly.

Teslas aren't for everyone. EVs aren't (yet) for everyone. Teslas and EVs are both far more workable for far more people than is commonly thought. Those statements aren't even in tension, let alone contradictory.

11-24-2019, 02:07 PM	#61
John V No more BMWs Join Date: Apr 2005 Carmudgeonly Ride: Ram, MS3, CX-5, RX-8 Location: Glenwood, MD Posts: 14,753	I mean, Elon's stuff has largely lived up to the pre-production specs, no? So long as you ignore the fact that the $35,000 model 3 still doesn't exist. In terms of performance, range, etc, it seems to me that the 3 has largely exceeded expectations. Performance aside... autopilot is stupid, it's dangerous, IMO it should be a lot more tightly regulated than it is. Again, when the charging infrastructure and battery tech supports long-distance driving (when using the truck as an actual truck, loaded down with gear and pulling a trailer), sign me up.

11-24-2019, 06:03 PM	#63
equ Alphanumeric Join Date: Aug 2005 Carmudgeonly Ride: 981S, 340i Posts: 9,584	Back on the more narrow topic of the cybertruck, Jason Torchinsky (whom I've had the pleasure to meet and converse with at his 'Robot, Take the Wheel' launch party) pretty much sums it up for me: https://jalopnik.com/a-deep-look-at-...uck-1839993654 BTW, Jason is a deep well of automotive knowledge, generally focusing on design & utility. His book is a thought study on what auto-driving machines, should they actually come to fruition, may become... He compiles known ideas but adds his many of his own observations as well.. Also, while chit chatting, I found that he knew exactly about obscure Turkish domestic market only cars made in the 60's... What American knows about Anadol and its history? Anyway, he is funny, smart and open to the future and what he says about the truck is spot on for me.

11-24-2019, 08:46 PM	#64
JST 195 Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 24,611	Clyde, you’re just making numbers up. I mean, sure, maybe the numbers you quoted are tipping points. Maybe they aren’t. I have no idea. Neither do you. The idea that Tesla is somehow slowing down the transition to EVs by investing millions of dollars in building a fast charge network and churning out hundreds of thousands of long-range EVs is...odd. I tend to agree that at some point it may be desirable to have standardization for dc fast charging, but if my choice is between a tragedy of the commons standard with little investment and a proprietary standard that can justify pumping huge amounts of dollars into, I’ll take the latter—it certainly isn’t slowing down EV adoption. As for your points about what constitutes a “shitload,” let’s say your points are all well taken, and the maximum addressable market for current EV tech is some fraction of the cars sold every year (exclude ppl with one car, ppl without easy access to charging, etc). Even ten percent of the cars sold every year is over a million cars, which is...idk if it’s a shitload, but it’s a lot, and I’d rather those cars be EVs than ICE. Anyway. Ford’s in, VWs in, Daimler’s in. The rest will follow. At this point, thanks in no small part to Tesla showing it’s possible, transition to EVs is inevitable. Even if Tesla goes bankrupt tomorrow, they’ve done what they set out to do. And let’s assume that eventually SAE combo turns out to be the winning charging standard—it’s not like all that charging infrastructure Tesla has built will just disappear. Installing SAE combo equipment at those sites would be easy enough.

11-24-2019, 10:16 PM	#66
JST 195 Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 24,611	I don’t know where religion comes into this. Honestly, on the pure facts we’re not even really disagreeing—of course it will be years before all cars are EVs. Decades, even. And yeah, there’s a long road between here and there. And I don’t pretend it’s seamless, but I have an advantage over you on that front, in that I’ve gone through it myself. So while many of the points you make are very valid (re cost and charging availability for apartment dwellers, especially), I also know that your deep seated and seemingly visceral skepticism about converting ppl to EVs is really overblown. Lots of people who buy an EV realize the transition is not so hard. Hell, my neighbor just bought a Bolt to go with his base model Mode S, and is now fully EV. Is that going to work for everyone? Obviously not. But it’s going to be a lot easier for a whole lot of people than you seem to be willing to admit.

11-25-2019, 02:21 PM	#69
rumatt Mugwump Join Date: Oct 2003 Carmudgeonly Ride: E46 330i, Chevy Colorado, Tesla Model 3 Location: NY Posts: 17,475	So Elon is claiming that the window broke because hitting it with the sledge hammer cracked the glass. I'm not sure I'm buying it https://www.motor1.com/news/384171/m...k-glass-broke/ I heard another youtube theory that the sledge hammer loosened the window, lowering it a bit, which gave it less support allowing it to break. Sounds fishy too, but more plausible than the sledge hammer invisibly cracking both windows.