Tesla Cybertruck

[John V]

Originally Posted by rumatt

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That doesn't even remotely make sense

[dan]

Originally Posted by rumatt

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[rumatt]

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[equ]

Uh, ok, for $100 a piece... I guess that gives them some money to put together some more mock-ups and demos. Investor money is the least of Tesla's troubles with the stock sitting where it is.

And no, this is not like a concept car from a "normal" car company. Concept cars are design studies and generally not released with performance or utility specs. This is a "model" introduced with very specific specs. We are currently at the smoke and mirrors stage. If they can build enough hype, then they can put a talented team and aim at those pre-released specs.

[rumatt]

Originally Posted by equ

And no, this is not like a concept car from a "normal" car company. Concept cars are design studies and generally not released with performance or utility specs. This is a "model" introduced with very specific specs. We are currently at the smoke and mirrors stage. If they can build enough hype, then they can put a talented team and aim at those pre-released specs.

Are you just stating facts? Or expressing disapproval and frustration over what he's doing?

He introduced what he's building, admitting it won't be available for quite some time, taking some money in the form of deposits, then building it. People have seen this story before so they know what they're getting into.

[John V]

I think he's suggesting the number of refundable deposits taken doesn't really tire to actual interest

[rumatt]

Broken glass Cybertruck t-shirts

https://teespring.com/tesla-truck-cy...I0z8g7NCVTGxr0

[equ]

Originally Posted by rumatt

Are you just stating facts? Or expressing disapproval and frustration over what he's doing?

He introduced what he's building, admitting it won't be available for quite some time, taking some money in the form of deposits, then building it. People have seen this story before so they know what they're getting into.

I was responding to JST's comment that this was customary for new model introduction by most car companies. Did VW release the Phaeton's targets of cooling the interior to whatever Fahrenheit when it is 110F outside going 150mph? [made-up numbers on my end] Maybe they did, but I suspect those stayed internal at the concept/design study stage.

He introduced what he hopes to build, "is building" is stating strongly. "Is researching" is more like it.

It's a free world, he can do as he pleases (as long as he doesn't misdirect the very markets that give him this power) and adopters/seers/believers can throw money at him. I don't think a $100 deposit is a big deal for either the depositors or Tesla and am sure is easily returnable. But the publicity keeps TSLA, the stock price, relevant and hopefully high; that's what gives them power.

[3LOU5]

If they can mate a Cummins diesel with an Allison transmission, and put it in a GMC Black Widow Edition, that would be THE truck for me.

[JST]

Originally Posted by equ

I was responding to JST's comment that this was customary for new model introduction by most car companies. Did VW release the Phaeton's targets of cooling the interior to whatever Fahrenheit when it is 110F outside going 150mph? [made-up numbers on my end] Maybe they did, but I suspect those stayed internal at the concept/design study stage.

He introduced what he hopes to build, "is building" is stating strongly. "Is researching" is more like it.

It's a free world, he can do as he pleases (as long as he doesn't misdirect the very markets that give him this power) and adopters/seers/believers can throw money at him. I don't think a $100 deposit is a big deal for either the depositors or Tesla and am sure is easily returnable. But the publicity keeps TSLA, the stock price, relevant and hopefully high; that's what gives them power.

I didn't suggest that it's the same as what the rest of the industry does; I asked whether it was "worse" than that.

I think, broadly, that you're right about the way the company works, and I have no illusions about whether Musk would be a good person to work for. He sounds terrible, on a day to day basis.

At the same time, I just think the view of the company tends to be too polarized. On the one side you've got fanbois who fawn over everything he does; on the other you've got the $TSLAQ crowd who shades the whole enterprise as some sort of con.

I'm somewhere in between, though admittedly am more bullish on Tesla than some. The company has indeed made some way overhyped claims, ranging from small things like range and HP on the early Model S P85Ds to larger things like "autopilot" and "full self driving." At the same time, it is a huge mistake to allow that to shade your view of the company's actual accomplishments, which -- objectively -- are kind of insane.

Part of that comes from being an owner. I don't think it's easy to have the same sort of jaded view of Tesla that you and Clyde have when you drive the car everyday, and everyday a) experience it as a real, legitimate car that isn't vaporware at all, and b) experience it as a car that is in most important ways still *years* ahead of any competitive product.

And maybe that shades into how much slack I'm willing to cut Musk. When he introduced the Roadster 10 years ago, I thought the specs were literally unbelievable, as in I was convinced it couldn't happen. When I drove the Model S for the first time 3 years later, I was prepared for it to be a disappointment; instead, it completely upended my paradigm about what a car could be. When I heard about the price and specs of the Model 3, I didn't believe they could do that, either--I thought, like the Roadster, that the prices would eventually creep up. They didn't. And while the 35K Model 3 remains elusive (and provides a great talking point for Tesla bears), I can't ignore the fact that dollar-for-dollar the Model 3 is a better buy than the BMW 3 series, and yet it performs just as well if not better. That's fucking amazing, when you think about it.

So, do I think the specs of the truck are engineering targets rather than reality? Not really. The Raven drivetrain they are using now and the Plaid 3 motor setup they're in the process of developing for the Model S next year can deliver those numbers, no sweat. The biggest push goal is probably the range and the price, not because Tesla can't build a 500 mile truck, but because of how much it costs to do so; I suspect there won't be many single motor units sold, and that the average transaction price will be above 50K. But even there, Tesla has probably the best handle on what cost reductions in batteries are going to look like over the next 18-24 months as anyone in the world; I do not doubt for a second that they believe they can sell this truck for 50K and make a profit on it. And I don't doubt they are right about that.