Tesla Model S waffling

[clyde]

Originally Posted by kognito

Not sure if this has been discussed before, or not. But . . . what happens to the Model S if oil goes lower and stays lower??

If gas stays at 1.50 a gallon, will the Model S, and/or Tesla in general become the next Tucker??

If gas got that low and looked like it might stay there for a while, watch what happens to federal and state taxes on fuel in very short order.

[TD]

Originally Posted by clyde

If gas got that low and looked like it might stay there for a while, watch what happens to federal and state taxes on fuel in very short order.

We can only hope, as that would be the smart thing to do. But since it would be the smart thing to do and would require police spine, I can't see it happening.

[ZBB]

Originally Posted by clyde

Maybe it has something to do with the fact that Tesla is charging crack pipe money compared to other manufacturers.

Honda
https://techinfo.honda.com/rjanisis/logon.asp

$10.00 - day
$50.00 - 30 days
$350.00 - 365 days


Ford
http://www.motorcraftservice.com/vdi...d=pricing_info

$10.95 - 72 hours
$19.95 - 30 days
$109.95 - 365 days

And the Tesla link you provided shows a $3k cost for an annual subscription, not the (already laughable) $1k.

Shop manuals have always been kinda expensive compared to what you'd want, but big books are expensive to print and bind. Without the physical production costs, the online pricing of non-Tesla makes is outrageous. The Tesla pricing is vomit inducing.

What's BMW or MB? Probably a better comparison...

[kognito]

Originally Posted by TD

I doubt it, simply because Teslas are now often bought instead of BMW 7s or Mercedes S-classes, etc. They have succeeded as a high end super sedan, not strictly as a "electric car". People aren't buying them to save money on gas. If there is a fuel incentive, it's to feel good about "being green".

Cheap gas hurts the low-end electrics and hybrids.

is it the model X that was/is supposed to start at 30K?

and yeah, the government has to do something to fix the aging highway system. How do you tax electric vehicles?

[clyde]

Originally Posted by ZBB

What's BMW or MB? Probably a better comparison...

I disagree.

[ZBB]

Originally Posted by kognito

Not sure if this has been discussed before, or not. But . . . what happens to the Model S if oil goes lower and stays lower??

If gas stays at 1.50 a gallon, will the Model S, and/or Tesla in general become the next Tucker??

Originally Posted by TD

I doubt it, simply because Teslas are now often bought instead of BMW 7s or Mercedes S-classes, etc. They have succeeded as a high end super sedan, not strictly as a "electric car". People aren't buying them to save money on gas. If there is a fuel incentive, it's to feel good about "being green".

Cheap gas hurts the low-end electrics and hybrids.

I agree with TD... Although the Model S also competes with 5ers, A6/A7s, and the E-class. I was comparing an A5 or 335 coupe when shopping also...

As for gas prices, gas would have to get well under $1/gallon for gas to be less expensive than electricity. Here's my experience:

• On the CTS and Boxster, I averaged $190-$200 per month in gas expenses, and gas averaged $3.50/gallon for the 5 years I had those cars (I tracked all fill ups using the Gas Cubby app).
• At $1.50/gallon, that would be ~$80-85 per month in cost
• For 2014 with the Tesla, I averaged about $30/month in electricity cost on our home bill, and paid a total of ~$30 for public charing cost (90% of which was on our road trip) -- so call it $35/month -- which is ~60 cents a gallon equivalent.

That is somewhat of an estimate, but I calculated it based on:

• My actual energy use as reported by the car - 5755kWh
• Less the energy from our road trip (which was either Supercharger or public chargers instead of home charging) - 1500kWh
• Add 15% for for charging losses -- about 750kWh
• Equals total kWh used = ~5,000kWh
• Multiplied by the rate I pay - about 7 cents / kWh = $350 -- or $29/month

Edit: One additional comment regarding electricity rates. I charge the car at night or on weekends when our Time of Use (TOU) rate drops. Not everyone has rate plans like that -- and the national average electricity cost is ~12 cents per kWh. If you live in a place with higher cost electricity, then it would cost more to drive. Likewise, if you have a fully-paid for solar system, you could be charging for less (or at least a fixed cost...)

[ZBB]

Originally Posted by kognito

is it the model X that was/is supposed to start at 30K?

No... The Model X is effectively an SUV version of a Model S, and will likely be priced ~10% above the Model S (or maybe about the same base price). That is purely my speculation.

The Model 3 (written as 3 horizontal slashes...) is the lower priced car. $35k base price based on 2013 price levels... Perhaps $30k after federal rebate -- but those start phasing out once Tesla sells 200k cars in the US. Note - Tesla has sold ~60k cars globally now and is has to be approaching 50k in the US... The suspicion is that the Model 3 will only have rebates avail early in its production run...

[JST]

It looked on the thread on TMC that these were only available in MA--if so, they are "compliance" offerings in the same way that other car companies build compliance cars. They aren't really intended to assist aftermarket shops.

I've said before up-thread that how to deal with the issue of third-party and DIY repair is a significant one that Tesla is going to have to address eventually. I completely understand why they are being slow to do it; the cars are all pretty new, they're getting hugely important feedback from what is going right and what is going wrong, and they have A LOT of other stuff to worry about right now.

In some sense, ZBB and I paid big money to participate in a beta program, and it doesn't surprise me that Tesla wants to keep tight reins on it right now. That will change, though how it changes is anybody's guess.

JV, the Model S isn't the right car for you for lots and lots of reasons that go beyond shop manual availability. That said, there are a fair number of tinkerers and reverse-engineers over on TMC that are having fun taking the car apart and figuring out how to fix it and modify it. I suspect a lot more of that is going on outside of public view. It's a very different set of challenges, and one I am sure you will one day relish tackling. But now is probably not the time.

[John V]

Originally Posted by JST

JV, the Model S isn't the right car for you for lots and lots of reasons that go beyond shop manual availability. That said, there are a fair number of tinkerers and reverse-engineers over on TMC that are having fun taking the car apart and figuring out how to fix it and modify it. I suspect a lot more of that is going on outside of public view. It's a very different set of challenges, and one I am sure you will one day relish tackling. But now is probably not the time.

The Model S isn't, but the 3 would be the perfect car for Marisa in a few years. We spend a ton of money on fuel for her (roughly 100 mile a day) driving habit for work.

But the fact of the matter is that shop manual pricing is patently ridiculous. A Bentley manual for a BMW is only 100-200 bucks. The Bentley sucks, but it has what most people will need to work on their car. I don't know what a BMW official TIS sells for, but pirated copies are all over eBay for pretty cheap. $20-$40? I imagine that would happen with the Tesla manual in short order.

I lucked into one better than the BMW TIS - the BMW factory technician training manual for the E46. That thing is worth its weight in gold.

[JST]

The pricing for all the factory service information is confiscatory. Of course, if you've actually got a professional shop, $1000/yr is probably small potatoes for the most up to date info.

I am sure third party manuals and pirated manuals are on the way, but comparing the cost of those to the factory offering isn't really fair.