Solving the charging problem

[JST]

Originally Posted by Nick M3

Is an SFH with a driveway really that much of a ceiling for sales? Do you think that they sell that many pickup trucks to urban apartment dwellers?

More to the point, the net benefit of selling an electric car to an urban apartment dweller is going to be a lot lower. I live in the city. People don't really drive. Hell, notwithstanding the seven cars that we currently have in DC (just the ones here with us right now), my wife drives twice a week (bike commuter pre COVID), and I only commuted by car because I hate transit and need an excuse to use a car. It's for people in the suburbs and the country where electric cars make the difference.

And yes, there are going to be lots of edge case scenarios. I don't care about that. They don't really matter that much.

That's a good point--and assuming we can ever solve this COVID thing, the better step for LA isn't selling everyone an EV, it's figuring out some way to provide mass transit.

[Nick M3]

Originally Posted by JST

That's a good point--and assuming we can ever solve this COVID thing, the better step for LA isn't selling everyone an EV, it's figuring out some way to provide mass transit.

I mean, DC apartment buildings are generally getting planned with 1:6 to 1:3 parking ratios. That's not going to change post COVID, even if demand changes. (Most transit / walkable buildings struggle to rent much more than one space for every three units in the first place.) Below grade parking is just too expensive. Think $50-100,000 per parking space. $100,000 per space parking garages aren't anything special - just smaller footprint garages with poor efficiency (too much ramp / aisle to usable parking).

[robg]

Originally Posted by JST

That's a good point--and assuming we can ever solve this COVID thing, the better step for LA isn't selling everyone an EV, it's figuring out some way to provide mass transit.

Yeah- EVs are probably the most useful in denser cities where they reduce emissions and are more pleasant to drive in stop and go traffic. Short distances with long drive times at low speeds seem ideally suited to EVs. But, like you said, there are prbably better soltions than having everyone have personal use EVs in cities (not to mention the infrastructure challengie involved in doing so). Probably makes more sense to focus on electrifying diesel delivery trucks and buses that operate in cities and spew particulates. Less of a difficult infrastructure problem and more bang for your buck in terms of air quality improvements.

[Nick M3]

Originally Posted by robg

Yeah- EVs are probably the most useful in denser cities where they reduce emissions and are more pleasant to drive in stop and go traffic. Short distances with long drive times at low speeds seem ideally suited to EVs. But, like you said, there are prbably better soltions than having everyone have personal use EVs in cities (not to mention the infrastructure challengie involved in doing so). Probably makes more sense to focus on electrifying diesel delivery trucks and buses that operate in cities and spew particulates. Less of a difficult infrastructure problem and more bang for your buck in terms of air quality improvements.

I'd bet that rephrasing that statement to "EVs are the most useful to non-residents who drive into denser cities" would be a lot more accurate. JST would be a perfect example of this.

People who live in cities that are actually dense enough for charging to be a problem tend to be non-drivers.

Edit: I was able to find some commuting data for DC from 2013. At that point, between 250,000 and 300,000 non-residents drove cars into DC daily.

DC only had 358,963 cars registered at the end of 2019. (Note, for comparison, that DC had 286,715 vehicles registered in 2013, to give some sense of population growth.)

Nearly as many cars drive into DC as *live* in DC daily.

This is why I think the obsession with city residents' ability to charge EVs is so absurd. Sure, it would be nice. Sure, it would be helpful. But it's *not* the problem.

[robg]

Originally Posted by Nick M3

I'd bet that rephrasing that statement to "EVs are the most useful to non-residents who drive into denser cities" would be a lot more accurate. JST would be a perfect example of this.

People who live in cities that are actually dense enough for charging to be a problem tend to be non-drivers.

Yeah I meant that from both a resident (cleaner air) and driver perspective (quieter and smoother). Agree that resident likely does not equal driver in denser cities.


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[lemming]

Originally Posted by Nick M3

I'd bet that rephrasing that statement to "EVs are the most useful to non-residents who drive into denser cities" would be a lot more accurate. JST would be a perfect example of this.

People who live in cities that are actually dense enough for charging to be a problem tend to be non-drivers.

Edit: I was able to find some commuting data for DC from 2013. At that point, between 250,000 and 300,000 non-residents drove cars into DC daily.

DC only had 358,963 cars registered at the end of 2019. (Note, for comparison, that DC had 286,715 vehicles registered in 2013, to give some sense of population growth.)

Nearly as many cars drive into DC as *live* in DC daily.

This is why I think the obsession with city residents' ability to charge EVs is so absurd. Sure, it would be nice. Sure, it would be helpful. But it's *not* the problem.

I think I understand DC well also and these numbers make sense.

There are still a fair bit of people who live downtown in Boston and NYC and I would still like to see EV infrastructure built out to support a conversion to an EV fleet. This would be the same for SF. Probably less for SD and LA where less people live downtown.

[Nick M3]

Originally Posted by lemming

I think I understand DC well also and these numbers make sense.

There are still a fair bit of people who live downtown in Boston and NYC and I would still like to see EV infrastructure built out to support a conversion to an EV fleet. This would be the same for SF. Probably less for SD and LA where less people live downtown.

Look, I agree that it would be nice to have a solution that works for NYC and Boston. But what I'm saying is that in terms of EV adoption across the country, NYC and Boston are edge cases. There are close to 300 million cars registered in the US. EV adoption for residents of dense cities can be ZERO. Massachusetts has less than 1% of the cars registered in the US in the entire state.

EV infrastructure that is robust enough that commuters feel comfortable getting in and out of cities and making road trips is where the bang for buck is. Building out EV infrastructure for people who don't drive much in the first place is very high cost, very low reward.

Edit: I mean, seriously: How many days per week does the average street parking NYC or Boston resident actually drive their car? Let's exclude street cleaning from that and focus on actual trips in the car.

[robg]

Originally Posted by Nick M3

Look, I agree that it would be nice to have a solution that works for NYC and Boston. But what I'm saying is that in terms of EV adoption across the country, NYC and Boston are edge cases. There are close to 300 million cars registered in the US. EV adoption for residents of dense cities can be ZERO. Massachusetts has less than 1% of the cars registered in the US in the entire state.

EV infrastructure that is robust enough that commuters feel comfortable getting in and out of cities and making road trips is where the bang for buck is. Building out EV infrastructure for people who don't drive much in the first place is very high cost, very low reward.

Edit: I mean, seriously: How many days per week does the average street parking NYC or Boston resident actually drive their car? Let's exclude street cleaning from that and focus on actual trips in the car.

Yep. I used to live in NYC and have a car. It was almost exclusively used for weekend trips - usually atleast 100 miles outside the city. Most of the trips would have been not possible or atleast a huge PITA with an EV (even if i had been able to charge in our gargae). I suspect may city-owned vehicles are used similarly.

[lemming]

Originally Posted by Nick M3

Look, I agree that it would be nice to have a solution that works for NYC and Boston. But what I'm saying is that in terms of EV adoption across the country, NYC and Boston are edge cases. There are close to 300 million cars registered in the US. EV adoption for residents of dense cities can be ZERO. Massachusetts has less than 1% of the cars registered in the US in the entire state.

EV infrastructure that is robust enough that commuters feel comfortable getting in and out of cities and making road trips is where the bang for buck is. Building out EV infrastructure for people who don't drive much in the first place is very high cost, very low reward.

Edit: I mean, seriously: How many days per week does the average street parking NYC or Boston resident actually drive their car? Let's exclude street cleaning from that and focus on actual trips in the car.

I’m not even saying charge 100 cars in a garage.

I’m asking for something better than like 6 power cords per garage.

It’s easier to charge in the middle of the country because there’s space to setup a charging station. I’m saying for older infrastructure on the Left or East coast what is the solution, and who will goad companies into setting these stations up?

Because there is a certain number needed and it’s more than a gas station. Because of charge time. It’s at least 30min for each charge compared to five min for gasoline. All it takes is for four cars to need charging right now in most urban situations to back everything up.

[JST]

Lemming, you’re ignoring that charging (mostly) doesn’t work like gas fill ups. You don’t need dozens of beefy fast chargers; you need thousands of regular plugs (maybe 20A). Cars spend a lot of time parked. If they’re plugged in that whole time, you don’t need to fast charge.

That’s why 240V chargers in airport parking decks are stupid. Don’t give me many of those—give me a normal outlet in every stall.