Tesla Model S waffling

[lemming]

Originally Posted by JST

Well, it's a limited market car by virtue of the fact that it costs 60-100K, too. There's clearly a segment of consumers for whom the infrastructure issue is a serious concern, but it's probably a relatively small percentage of the people who otherwise would be in the market for a car like this.

A spare/larger battery isn't the answer, though. It's already got plenty of capacity for most urban dwellers. If they can fix the vampire issue, you'd only need to charge once a week or so. It seems to me what's needed is more fast chargers.

It will be interesting to see what happens on that front. It is essentially a battle of the standards at this point. Tesla is pushing a proprietary standard, and they have an advantage that comes from being (somewhat) out in front, with a sexy, premium product. But SAE has its own standard, backed by the mainstream makers. If you are putting in charging infrastructure, which do you bet on? It's hard to justify backing the proprietary standard, but at the same time until BMW, Ford, et al do a better job of building BEVs that people actually want to buy, it doesn't make a lot of sense to go that route, either.

IMHO, the next 6-12 months are absolutely critical for Tesla. They need to avoid recalls and bad press and get a smooth launch of the Model X, but most of all what they need to do is build chargers. Lots of them. Leverage this period where the other standard is still mostly vaporware and make it so the "facts on the ground" are impossible to get around.

this is a really thoughtful post.

having a peek at the powertrain stuff that is coming through both venture and friends who are drivetrain engineers, you're spot on. they have a window to fill the void.

bolt-on tech such as regenerative charging (if not already integrated) could offset vampire losses, couldn't it? or does the Tesla platform already use regen processes?

can i ask a naive question, but one that is not out of bounds for the very congested northeastern corridor?

let's say your range is 300mi, and you can make it for a business trip easily from Boston to NYC or peri-NJ to corporate HQ over the GW bridge and/or Lincoln tunnel. that might give you 50mi in range? and you put off charging until the end of the meetings during the day.

is there a scenario where you go to a supercharger station and end up waiting an hour or more to get your charging done? i don't know the throughput (in parallel) of the stations, but there are enough affluent people in the area where this scenario could actually be true.

[Josh (PA)]

Originally Posted by JST

Well, it's a limited market car by virtue of the fact that it costs 60-100K, too. There's clearly a segment of consumers for whom the infrastructure issue is a serious concern, but it's probably a relatively small percentage of the people who otherwise would be in the market for a car like this.

A spare/larger battery isn't the answer, though. It's already got plenty of capacity for most urban dwellers. If they can fix the vampire issue, you'd only need to charge once a week or so. It seems to me what's needed is more fast chargers.

It will be interesting to see what happens on that front. It is essentially a battle of the standards at this point. Tesla is pushing a proprietary standard, and they have an advantage that comes from being (somewhat) out in front, with a sexy, premium product. But SAE has its own standard, backed by the mainstream makers. If you are putting in charging infrastructure, which do you bet on? It's hard to justify backing the proprietary standard, but at the same time until BMW, Ford, et al do a better job of building BEVs that people actually want to buy, it doesn't make a lot of sense to go that route, either.

IMHO, the next 6-12 months are absolutely critical for Tesla. They need to avoid recalls and bad press and get a smooth launch of the Model X, but most of all what they need to do is build chargers. Lots of them. Leverage this period where the other standard is still mostly vaporware and make it so the "facts on the ground" are impossible to get around.

It seems like the one thing they've mis-thought is the battery swap plan. Making owners keep the battery linked to the car seems like a bad idea. Let owners pull into a super charger station, swap batteries and drive away. Create a pool of batteries with a subscription service that basically covers the replacement of batteries as they wear out. Charge the batteries at the super chargers on off hours. Make the process as easy as getting gas and I think you have a useable network. Then develop inductive charging matts for garages and parking places so there is no need to get out of the car and plug it in, just park over your pad and go inside.

[ZBB]

Originally Posted by lemming

this is a really thoughtful post.

having a peek at the powertrain stuff that is coming through both venture and friends who are drivetrain engineers, you're spot on. they have a window to fill the void.

bolt-on tech such as regenerative charging (if not already integrated) could offset vampire losses, couldn't it? or does the Tesla platform already use regen processes?

can i ask a naive question, but one that is not out of bounds for the very congested northeastern corridor?

let's say your range is 300mi, and you can make it for a business trip easily from Boston to NYC or peri-NJ to corporate HQ over the GW bridge and/or Lincoln tunnel. that might give you 50mi in range? and you put off charging until the end of the meetings during the day.

is there a scenario where you go to a supercharger station and end up waiting an hour or more to get your charging done? i don't know the throughput (in parallel) of the stations, but there are enough affluent people in the area where this scenario could actually be true.

Tesla already incorporates regen braking. Once you get use to it, you rarely touch the brake pedal except to come to a complete stop. Regen really isn't bolt-on, it's just what happens when the motor is turning with no electricity applied to it -- it becomes a generator and puts electricity back into the battery. Doing so slows the car down, hence "regen braking"...

As for Supercharger throughput, the original stations only had 1-4 plugs (only one had 1). The latest ones have either 8 or 10. There are reports of wait times at some, mostly in CA and usually only on weekends. The TechCrunch link I posted gives more info -- including a stat that Supercharger stations are seeing up to 17 sessions per day. Assuming the average stop is an hour, that mans the 4-unit stations are being used for a little over 4 hours each. Wait shouldn't be too long. Additionally, there is a protocol developing where you leave your number on the dash so someone can call to let you know they are waiting...

Your Boston to NYC trip would mean stopping at either the Milford or Greenwich CT Superchargers on I-95. Maybe just a 15-20 min stop on the way down, then a longer stop to charge up enough to get back to Boston. The trip is 215 miles, and NYC to Milford is 68, which puts Boston-NYC-Milford out of reach for the 85kWh Tesla -- which have a rated range of ~260 miles (Tesla has stopped using the 300 mile "if you drove 55 on a completely flat road" range).

Road tripping in a Tesla definately takes more planning. But it's doable...

[ZBB]

Originally Posted by Josh (PA)

It seems like the one thing they've mis-thought is the battery swap plan. Making owners keep the battery linked to the car seems like a bad idea. Let owners pull into a super charger station, swap batteries and drive away. Create a pool of batteries with a subscription service that basically covers the replacement of batteries as they wear out. Charge the batteries at the super chargers on off hours. Make the process as easy as getting gas and I think you have a useable network. Then develop inductive charging matts for garages and parking places so there is no need to get out of the car and plug it in, just park over your pad and go inside.

Read about a company called A Better Place. They tried that approach and went bankrupt...

I think Tesla will try out a few swap stations, but will end up not building too many. Math is hard to make it work except for some of the most frequently traveled routes... Plus they haven't really released any details of how this will work (terms, exact pricing, "upgrade" pricing, etc)...

[lemming]

Originally Posted by ZBB

Tesla already incorporates regen braking. Once you get use to it, you rarely touch the brake pedal except to come to a complete stop. Regen really isn't bolt-on, it's just what happens when the motor is turning with no electricity applied to it -- it becomes a generator and puts electricity back into the battery. Doing so slows the car down, hence "regen braking"...

As for Supercharger throughput, the original stations only had 1-4 plugs (only one had 1). The latest ones have either 8 or 10. There are reports of wait times at some, mostly in CA and usually only on weekends. The TechCrunch link I posted gives more info -- including a stat that Supercharger stations are seeing up to 17 sessions per day. Assuming the average stop is an hour, that mans the 4-unit stations are being used for a little over 4 hours each. Wait shouldn't be too long. Additionally, there is a protocol developing where you leave your number on the dash so someone can call to let you know they are waiting...

Your Boston to NYC trip would mean stopping at either the Milford or Greenwich CT Superchargers on I-95. Maybe just a 15-20 min stop on the way down, then a longer stop to charge up enough to get back to Boston. The trip is 215 miles, and NYC to Milford is 68, which puts Boston-NYC-Milford out of reach for the 85kWh Tesla -- which have a rated range of ~260 miles (Tesla has stopped using the 300 mile "if you drove 55 on a completely flat road" range).

Road tripping in a Tesla definately takes more planning. But it's doable...

I'm assuming I'd get an app and it'd be mindless. It'd ping me to SC station.

I still want a once per week battery.

[JST]

Agree completely on the battery swap issue. The way that they are talking about doing it is logistically Byzantine. It wouldn't surprise me if that whole follow the battery plan goes the way of the 40 kw Model S.

[ZBB]

Originally Posted by lemming

I'm assuming I'd get an app and it'd be mindless. It'd ping me to SC station.

I still want a once per week battery.

The SCs are already listed in the Google maps on the car. An update to the Nav system is coming "soon" that will include route planning to route you for SC charging efficiency, as well as pick the most efficient route (taking into account current wind speeds, elevation change and speed).

I don't quite get the once per week battery though... Do you have a once per week cell phone? It takes a couple seconds to plug in the car every evening -- and I never have to worry about having enough range to get to work, nor do I need to worry about stopping and getting gas on the way in to the office. It's already second nature -- I've plugged it in a couple times already when I didn't mean to side I was going back out shortly later...

[clyde]

First part of the goal is 250+ miles in under 15 minutes, right? Second part is be sure that you can always get from here to there without traveling further than 250 miles from the last place you topped off.

Whoever figures out how to make meeting those two goals work first has a license to print money. I don't think anyone really cares about battery swapping or charging so long as it's quick and easy.

[ZBB]

Originally Posted by clyde

First part of the goal is 250+ miles in under 15 minutes, right? Second part is be sure that you can always get from here to there without traveling further than 250 miles from the last place you topped off.

Whoever figures out how to make meeting those two goals work first has a license to print money. I don't think anyone really cares about battery swapping or charging so long as it's quick and easy.

Tesla's about half way there... And apparently the SCs are able to be bumped up quite a bit further. All the ones in the field now are putting out 90kW -- enough to charge 300 miles in a hour. They will be bumping them to 120kW shortly -- so 400 miles added in an hour. And they are targeting the spacing to be ~125 miles apart...

[JST]

Originally Posted by lemming

this is a really thoughtful post.

having a peek at the powertrain stuff that is coming through both venture and friends who are drivetrain engineers, you're spot on. they have a window to fill the void.

bolt-on tech such as regenerative charging (if not already integrated) could offset vampire losses, couldn't it? or does the Tesla platform already use regen processes?

can i ask a naive question, but one that is not out of bounds for the very congested northeastern corridor?

let's say your range is 300mi, and you can make it for a business trip easily from Boston to NYC or peri-NJ to corporate HQ over the GW bridge and/or Lincoln tunnel. that might give you 50mi in range? and you put off charging until the end of the meetings during the day.

is there a scenario where you go to a supercharger station and end up waiting an hour or more to get your charging done? i don't know the throughput (in parallel) of the stations, but there are enough affluent people in the area where this scenario could actually be true.

Waiting at the SC stations is something that gives me pause, given the number of Teslas rolling around here now. I've stopped by the DE welcome center several times since the SC went live, and on more than one occasion the bays were all full when I got there. Of course, the other times there was plenty of space, and even when the bays were full it wasn't more than a few minutes before someone pulled out.

It's a real concern on the NY-DC run since there's only one charge stop between here and there (and nothing in NY yet). As they fill in SC locations on the corridor, the risk of having to wait is going to decrease...but of course they're selling a fair number of cars, so who knows whether access to SC infrastructure is going to keep up with production?