Rivian and Lucid

[SCA]

Amazon-backed electric-vehicle maker Rivian files to go public: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/27/rivi...s-for-ipo.html

Rivian Files for IPO, Seeking About $80 Billion Valuation: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...lion-valuation

[zach]

Originally Posted by SCA

Amazon-backed electric-vehicle maker Rivian files to go public: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/27/rivi...s-for-ipo.html

Rivian Files for IPO, Seeking About $80 Billion Valuation: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...lion-valuation

A close friend of mine left Tesla for Rivian a couple of years go. He's having a good week.

[robg]

I do admire what Rivian has done.... but dont necessarily want that big of a vehicle. And like others said, I just dont want to deal with a brand new manufacturer. Im sure they'll execute better than Tesla did...but still.

Same feelings on the Lucid...but so far in pictures I find it to be pretty ugly. Hard to believe i'd like it better in person but maybe?

[JST]

Both Rivian and Lucid are stocked full of ex Big 3 and ex Tesla people, but without the incendiary bull shit from Musk. Will be interesting to see how much of the secret sauce he really is, if any.

The Lucid in particular looks like a surprisingly mature offering, in ways both good and bad; if I blocked the badges and told you it was an upmarket Lincoln, you’d be mildly surprised but not amazed.

[robg]

Originally Posted by JST

Both Rivian and Lucid are stocked full of ex Big 3 and ex Tesla people, but without the incendiary bull shit from Musk. Will be interesting to see how much of the secret sauce he really is, if any.

The Lucid in particular looks like a surprisingly mature offering, in ways both good and bad; if I blocked the badges and told you it was an upmarket Lincoln, you’d be mildly surprised but not amazed.

I think the only secret sauce they'll be missing is Musk's ability to generate publicity through crazy tweets and media stunts..

[clyde]

Originally Posted by robg

I think the only secret sauce they'll be missing is Musk's ability to generate publicity through crazy tweets and media stunts..

Musk's willingness to be detrimentally disruptive is a primary Tesla asset. I can spend all week telling you about how awful he is for it, but I've never denied its effectiveness. I don't think Tesla would be as successful as it is without him.

But now that he's shown the mousetrap can be totally different than what's come before, is he necessary to making the mousetrap better? I'm inclined to think not. But I'd love to something from him that no one else has thought of/found a way to make work.

[robg]

Originally Posted by clyde

Musk's willingness to be detrimentally disruptive is a primary Tesla asset. I can spend all week telling you about how awful he is for it, but I've never denied its effectiveness. I don't think Tesla would be as successful as it is without him.

But now that he's shown the mousetrap can be totally different than what's come before, is he necessary to making the mousetrap better? I'm inclined to think not. But I'd love to something from him that no one else has thought of/found a way to make work.

Yep. I'm of the opinion that he doesn't seem to provide much value in terms of "improving the mousetrap". But his presence certainly helps Tesla achieve/maintain its high market cap which gives it access to the captial necessary to keep expanding.

[ZBB]

I’m rooting for both to succeed, but more puzzled by Lucid — feels more like something targeted to a Chinese billionaire than competing in the US market.

I really grew to like the Rivian when they were used on Long Way Up. I’m not in the market right now, but I could see ordering one in a few years…

[ZBB]

I disagree. Musk has been instrumental in how Tesla is "improving the mousetrap". Many of the things that the Model S had from launch are just now starting to be copied by the industry. If he hadn't pushed the teams to think differently, we wouldn't know that there was a "better"...

I'm thinking things like:
- Agile development for both hardware and software. Tesla will make changes when the change is "better" in some way (could be lower cost to them...). Lots of examples of little things -- headliner material, random parts, monthly updates to the software, look and feel of the screens (I went through 3 different layouts in my Model S). The industry still generally focuses on a 4-7 year model cycle, with perhaps a mid-cycle refresh and more limited changes like what is or isn't included in an option package on a model year basis). I think Ford is now doing OTA software updates for the Mach E, but I can't think of any others.

- Thinking through the process to turn on a car. Why is there a start button or key hole? The only Tesla that has that is the original Roadster

- This may be controversial, but pushing the limits on driver assistance technologies. Every car built since 2014 is gathering data and helping get real-world experience (even if the driver isn't using the features). I've been very impressed with what AutoPilot can do -- and I use it nearly all the time when driving (but I very much pay attention since it is not perfect and the driver does need to take over occasionally)...

[clyde]

Originally Posted by ZBB

I disagree.

Noooo! Say it ain't so, Joe!

Musk has been instrumental in how Tesla is "improving the mousetrap". Many of the things that the Model S had from launch are just now starting to be copied by the industry. If he hadn't pushed the teams to think differently, we wouldn't know that there was a "better"...

I'm thinking things like:
- Agile development for both hardware and software. Tesla will make changes when the change is "better" in some way (could be lower cost to them...). Lots of examples of little things -- headliner material, random parts, monthly updates to the software, look and feel of the screens (I went through 3 different layouts in my Model S). The industry still generally focuses on a 4-7 year model cycle, with perhaps a mid-cycle refresh and more limited changes like what is or isn't included in an option package on a model year basis). I think Ford is now doing OTA software updates for the Mach E, but I can't think of any others.

- Thinking through the process to turn on a car. Why is there a start button or key hole? The only Tesla that has that is the original Roadster

I think the things you describe above fall into the disruptive bucket, not improving the mousetrap bucket. He made a different process work, but what's he doing to make that new process add value? The process enables the staff to build a better mousetrap, but what is Musk's role in that?

It's interesting that you cite a traditional 4-7 year model cycle, when the 2021 Tesla Model S is visually indistinguishable from an eight year old Tesla Model S. Meanwhile, the 3, Y, and X have all been subsequently been introduced as new models, but are essentially minor variations on the same theme in slightly different sizes that all take the exact same approach to all things "car" as the Model S. Kinda like the S was Coke, the 3 is Cherry Coke, the Y Vanilla Coke and the X Cherry Vanilla Coke. If one of them was more like...coconut milk.

I also wouldn't jump to the conclusion that different is "better" because an industry famous for following the pack copies something that someone has done differently. As a Tesla fanboi, I'd be increasingly afraid that people that know what they're doing building cars are going to soon be making much better mousetraps. But that's me and we know that we don't agree on much when it to Telsa and Musk.

- This may be controversial, but pushing the limits on driver assistance technologies. Every car built since 2014 is gathering data and helping get real-world experience (even if the driver isn't using the features). I've been very impressed with what AutoPilot can do -- and I use it nearly all the time when driving (but I very much pay attention since it is not perfect and the driver does need to take over occasionally)...

Again, Musk detrimentally disrupted by choosing to ignore public safety for the benefit of his own ego. It's done. What is Musk himself contributing to that at this point to improve that mousetrap?