Base Taycan announced (RWD/80k). Anyone intrigued?

[Alan]

Originally Posted by robg

Anyway, this isn't something I'd consider getting in the near future, but buying a used one in a few years might be appealing (given the likely lower maintenance/repair costs).

My concern with a used EV is from my understanding the Battery technology is moving ahead so fast that it will really hurt resale or make an older EV undesirable ... kind of like who today wants an Iphone 6 ... keep in mind I don't know anything about EV's and their technology so maybe i am completely wrong, for all I know maybe the batteries will be able to be changed to the new technology in the future

[ZBB]

Originally Posted by Alan

My concern with a used EV is from my understanding the Battery technology is moving ahead so fast that it will really hurt resale or make an older EV undesirable ... kind of like who today wants an Iphone 6 ... keep in mind I don't know anything about EV's and their technology so maybe i am completely wrong, for all I know maybe the batteries will be able to be changed to the new technology in the future

There will always be a market... When I sold my Model S to CarMax, it was 5.25 years old and had 93k miles. I sold it for 42% of what I paid for it (after the federal tax rebate). Had I wanted to take some time to sell it private party, I easily could have made another 4-5%...

The big question will be how the battery packs hold up and what people do with them once the packs degrade enough impact useful range. Will you be able to get a new or refurb battery pack from the OEM? What's the incremental cost less the core charge? What are the non-OEM options going to be (there's a cottage industry of people that will refurb Prius and Leaf packs -- basically buying packs from junkyards/insurance sales and using the cells/clusters to refurb a degraded pack. Haven't seen much of that in the Tesla space (there's a little, but the demand for used Tesla packs seems to be to power an EV conversion project...).

But that's probably not something to worry about until the cars age past 8-10 years. My Model S for example still was reporting ~90% of its as-new range, and the degradation really slowed down the last 2 years I owned it...

[robg]

Originally Posted by Alan

My concern with a used EV is from my understanding the Battery technology is moving ahead so fast that it will really hurt resale or make an older EV undesirable ... kind of like who today wants an Iphone 6 ... keep in mind I don't know anything about EV's and their technology so maybe i am completely wrong, for all I know maybe the batteries will be able to be changed to the new technology in the future

Yeah maybe. I guess I'm not convinced that battery tech has been progressing at some great rate. To take tesla as an example, the gains in range from original model S 85 to the current long range, seem to mostly have come from a) larger battery pack b) better software management c) aero tweaks d) more efficient motors. Probably some tweaks to the way they calculate the EPA range as well (read an article about how Tesla has made an art of how they calculate those ranges). Tesla has also shown that these battery packs generally last longer than people thought they would.

Of course, the in-car tech/infotainment will continue to get "better" but that's true of any modern car.

To me, the thing that will make the biggest difference is the expansion of DC fast chargers which is something the Taycan (and many other current EVs) will benefit from over the coming years. I guess it's possible that there is a big enough change in EV tech to where the charging standards change, but I think there's now so much momentum behind CCS that I kind of doubt it. And maybe battery tech will make it possible to have 500 or 1000 mile packs that weigh the same as todays, but given my usage i'm not it would matter all that much-- reliable and wide spread fast charging is the key to making longer trips easy.

As for resale, I think the main thing that kills resale for older German cars is the high maintenance/repair costs of keeping them running. In theory, an EV will have fewer of those types of issues. At a certain point, there's no getting around having to replace the battery pack of course. But atleast with Tesla it seems like people are getting to 100k miles with useful life left in the packs.

Now that I think about it I had the equivalent of an iphone 6 until a few months ago (had a 1st gen iphone SE) and am still using my 2015 macbook air. . Honestly, I'd probably have kept the phone if it wasn't for the fact that iOS upgrades (and app compatability) forces you to upgrade at a certain point. Yeah, at a certain point Porsche (or any other oem) is going to stop making software updates for your car. But it's a bit different with a car. I can still use the car even if the built-in apple music app no longer functions or something.

[clyde]

I think there was greater expectation that battery advancements would happen more rapidly and existing batteries would degrade faster than has happened. I think it's still a valid concern for anyone planning to hold onto a car more than three or four years, but as long as the car you'd be selling still works, it doesn't seem like it will have a huge impact in value. That could change, but that's how things seem to be happening.

I'm now more concerned about old battery disposal, recycling, and the rare earth materials needed for new ones impacting the prices of new electric cars at some future point. My expectation is that as the environmental toll of extracting materials for them and disposing of them when done becomes more clear that auto manufacturers will be forced to bear more of the burden and pass those costs along to consumers. But, who knows at this point?

The other thing I think is an inevitable eventuality are taxes on electricity used for charging cars. There is essentially no tax on electricity today and taxes on gasoline average about $0.60/gallon which is roughly 25% of what you pay at the pump (state excise taxes vary wildly so some of us pay considerably more than others and diesel taxes are generally a good bit higher). When we get to the point were electric cars make up a sizeable portion of the national fleet, what's going to happen? If government and society keep thinking that electrics are better on the whole, I'd expect gas taxes to start going up to 1) make up for the shortfall and 2) to encourage people to move from gas to electric. Eventually, the petro-tax revenue will need to be made up somewhere.

anyway...

[robg]

Originally Posted by clyde

I think there was greater expectation that battery advancements would happen more rapidly and existing batteries would degrade faster than has happened. I think it's still a valid concern for anyone planning to hold onto a car more than three or four years, but as long as the car you'd be selling still works, it doesn't seem like it will have a huge impact in value. That could change, but that's how things seem to be happening.

I'm now more concerned about old battery disposal, recycling, and the rare earth materials needed for new ones impacting the prices of new electric cars at some future point. My expectation is that as the environmental toll of extracting materials for them and disposing of them when done becomes more clear that auto manufacturers will be forced to bear more of the burden and pass those costs along to consumers. But, who knows at this point?

The other thing I think is an inevitable eventuality are taxes on electricity used for charging cars. There is essentially no tax on electricity today and taxes on gasoline average about $0.60/gallon which is roughly 25% of what you pay at the pump (state excise taxes vary wildly so some of us pay considerably more than others and diesel taxes are generally a good bit higher). When we get to the point were electric cars make up a sizeable portion of the national fleet, what's going to happen? If government and society keep thinking that electrics are better on the whole, I'd expect gas taxes to start going up to 1) make up for the shortfall and 2) to encourage people to move from gas to electric. Eventually, the petro-tax revenue will need to be made up somewhere.

anyway...

All true. I do think its going to be a looong time before EVs make up a sizeable portion of the national fleet.

[clyde]

Originally Posted by robg

All true. I do think its going to be a looong time before EVs make up a sizeable portion of the national fleet.

If all the manufacturers stop building ICE powered vehicles the question becomes how quickly the used fleet changes over or how quickly we start looking like Cuba.

[robg]

Originally Posted by clyde

If all the manufacturers stop building ICE powered vehicles the question becomes how quickly the used fleet changes over or how quickly we start looking like Cuba.

A quick google search found this:
https://www.eei.org/resourcesandmedi...-%20Roads.aspx

Looks like EVs are projected to make up about 7% of the national fleet by 2030. I guess that's good chunk still far from a majority. Yeah - I could see the "cuba" scenario happening to some extent given the average age for US cars is like 15 years now. There are going to be people for a variety of reasons who need to hold onto ICE cars if new ones are no longer being sold. Atleast in this country, I kind of have a hard time believing that the day when you can't buy a new ICE car is anytime soon or even in 15 years.

[clyde]

Originally Posted by robg

A quick google search found this:
https://www.eei.org/resourcesandmedi...-%20Roads.aspx

Looks like EVs are projected to make up about 7% of the national fleet by 2030. I guess that's good chunk still far from a majority. Yeah - I could see the "cuba" scenario happening to some extent given the average age for US cars is like 15 years now. There are going to be people for a variety of reasons who need to hold onto ICE cars if new ones are no longer being sold. Atleast in this country, I kind of have a hard time believing that the day when you can't buy a new ICE car is anytime soon or even in 15 years.

That release was from two years ago, so I wouldn't put too much faith in its projections.

A big factor in retiring the existing ICE fleet will be gas/diesel prices, taxes, and availability. People also won't be able to move from their existing ICE car into a used EV if used EVs (or affordable new EVs) are available.

It will all sort itself out, but who knows how messy, costly, or over what period of time?

[Josh (PA)]

https://rennlist.com/how-tos/slidesh...he-wild-624388

Speaking of the Taycan, this is kind of cool.

[robg]

Originally Posted by Josh (PA)

https://rennlist.com/how-tos/slidesh...he-wild-624388

Speaking of the Taycan, this is kind of cool.

Yep- definitely. I’d expect a base price of atkeast 90k (if they have a base version with AWD). More likely it’ll come out initially in 4s trim for around 110kish. As much as I love the taycan I have a hard time getting excited about any non 911 for over 100k. Will be interesting to see how much Audi charges for their version when it comes out.


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