Tesla Model S waffling

[ZBB]

Originally Posted by Rob

The battery stop only works if the place to swap is open, not busy, and close to your route. If you waste 30 minutes getting to the dealer that is across town from your route and the super charger is on the route, the super charger is a better bet. I don't see anybody investing enough in batteries to have swapping ability as convenient as gas stations are and I suspect (without any data to back it up) that super charging stations are much less expensive than battery swapping facilities.

Well, if Tesla builds any battery swap stations, they have stated that:
a) They would be automated -- so open 24 hours
b) They would be co-located at Superchargers.

[JST]

Originally Posted by Josh (PA)

I'd be interested to see a map of where Tesla's have been sold over-layed with the supercharger map.

At various times, Musk has said that they've found that it is putting in a service center that drives new demand; I think that was said again in the investor letter yesterday.

I don't know that the Superchargers directly correlate with sales at this point, though Tesla is clearly building their network out in nodes that track places of heavy tech interest and thus likely sales prospects. Look at what we've got so far--West Coast, Texas, Florida, Boston-->DC, Colorado, Chicago, and now North Carolina.

Transcontinental travel will theoretically be available by the end of the year, though Musk's announcement that he will delay his announced family trip until the Spring may call that into question.

The Supercharger build-out is happening amazingly quickly, as such things go.

[bren]

Originally Posted by John V

So you would be OK swapping the battery in your brand new Tesla with one that checks out fine but has been in use for 2 years?

Why not? You'd be swapping batteries every few days anyway.

[Sharp11]

Originally Posted by ZBB

Forget the fuel source for a second -- and take a look at your usage of a car. DOT statistics show that the average daily miles driven is <30 miles. So most of the current gen EV's are designed for ~80 miles of usage (roughly 2x the average daily use). But the problem is that most people need to drive >80 miles in a day on a fairly regular basis (once or twice a month likely)... Most people also have a longer trip 1-4 times per year (150+ mile one-way "road trips") -- and that's where the current crop of EVs just don't work. Except for Tesla, which offers 2 battery sized with range of ~200 or ~260 miles. That means that even the "small battery" Tesla can meet nearly all daily and occasional longer mileage trips. Its only the really long road trips that need planning with the Tesla.

I my case, I have the following needs for a car:

• Daily commute: ~60-70 miles in total on weekdays
• Weekend errands: 70-100 miles per day about once a month; although most weekends are under 50 miles total for the weekend.
• Day trips: 1-2 per year -- 150-200 miles in most cases, usually up to my parent's summer cottage in Yarnell. I did 500 miles once with the Porsche to attend a track day in SE AZ.
• Road trips: Our family does 1-2 vacation road trips per year. Usually PHX to SoCal -- so ~1000-1200 miles over a week, and no more than ~400 in a single day.

The Tesla currently meets the daily commute, weekend errands, and day trip requirements without any special planning. Road trips do take some planning now, but that will go away once the Superchargers are avail (should be by year end -- only need 2 more to be built along I-10).



For the 1-2x per year that I will take a road trip in the Tesla, I'm OK spending a little more time planning the trip than with an ICE...



I think the big difference for EV vs ICE is that the fueling network has been built out over a century. Most major interstate exits have multiple choices of where to fuel. You can head out on a trip and generally know that you can stop 3-4 hours down the road and fill up almost anyplace.

For an EV, the charging infrastructure is mostly in larger cities. In AZ, chargers are common in Phoenix and Tucson, but nearly non-existent elsewhere in the state. Fortunately, Teslas can charge from 50-Amp outlets that are common in RV parks, so those become a backup charging site.

Level 2 EV charging is also very slow -- most of the public chargers out there are on 208V 30A circuits -- which deliver ~15 miles of added range per hour of charge for the Tesla. That's fine for overnight charging, but really slows down a road trip.

But Level 3 EV charging, which uses high amperage DC charging can deliver much faster charging. CHAdeMO delivers 50kW -- which charges 10x a Level 2 charger (150 miles added per hour). Tesla's Superchargers are now outputting 120kW -- 360 miles added per hour of charging. Tesla is now talking of upping the Superchargers to 135kW -- so 400+ miles added in an hour. That's the game changer...

I don't want to have to think this much about "fueling" up ....

My new (old) Merc gets 30 mpg on the highway. It has a huge tank so I can do my twice-weekly trips to NJ and run around town with it on weekends and still fill it up once every two weeks - and it takes me five minutes at the pump - which is about the limit of my patience for gas stations.

I appreciate what you're saying, I just don't get what it is that's appealing about it - as it stands, I hate gas stations, what I want is a car that will go farther between stops and allow me to spend even less of my time worrying about when and where to gas up ... the Tesla would cause me endless additional anxiety.

[ZBB]

Originally Posted by Sharp11

I don't want to have to think this much about "fueling" up ....

My new (old) Merc gets 30 mpg on the highway. It has a huge tank so I can do my twice-weekly trips to NJ and run around town with it on weekends and still fill it up once every two weeks - and it takes me five minutes at the pump - which is about the limit of my patience for gas stations.

I appreciate what you're saying, I just don't get what it is that's appealing about it - as it stands, I hate gas stations, what I want is a car that will go farther between stops and allow me to spend even less of my time worrying about when and where to gas up ... the Tesla would cause me endless additional anxiety.

But that's just the thing... I don't worry about charging for regular use -- I just plug it I at home each night. That takes about 5 seconds. Every day I leave the house, I leave with a "full tank".

That results in less anxiety than with having to get gas every week or two... I used to watch my remaining range in the Boxster and figure out how many more commutes I could do before needing to get gas. I also usually got gas at Costco on the way home from work -- and sometimes I'd forget that I needed gas, and then scramble to make sure I could pick up my daughter and get gas or risk not making it home. Haven't had to worry about that at all with the Tesla...

[John V]

Originally Posted by bren

Why not? You'd be swapping batteries every few days anyway.

If you have a several hundred mile drive every few days, perhaps.

I would expect most owners would very rarely participate in a battery swap.

[bren]

Originally Posted by John V

If you have a several hundred mile drive every few days, perhaps.

I would expect most owners would very rarely participate in a battery swap.

Say you only swap them once per year, you could still unload a "bum" pack at any time and simply swap in another.

[ZBB]

Originally Posted by bren

Say you only swap them once per year, you could still unload a "bum" pack at any time and simply swap in another.

Tesla discussed this at their battery swap demonstration. They will offer this as an option -- but will bill you the difference based on your battery state compared to the "new" battery just swapped in.

However, they have not released pricing on this. Rumors are that the 85kWh pack costs ~$40k. Lets say your pack shows 10% degradation and you swap in a brand new pack. If Tesla just does a differential calc -- that would mean a $4k charge from Tesla.

Ain't gonna happen too often. Perhaps for someone with a 4 year old car (where pack degradation will likely be ~20% or so -- so $8k to "upgrade").

Now if battery costs come down in the next few years, those amounts could change. Tesla is predicting that a replacement pack will cost $10-12k in 7-8 years...

[bren]

Originally Posted by ZBB

battery swap

Tesla's current idea that I have to come back and get my original pack is dumb. No derivative of that plan will work.

I'm not an accountant, but certainly someone can figure out the expected life/battery cost and amortize that into the price of the cars - then battery swaps are done for some fixed fee akin to filling up with gas and fresh packs are always available for everyone.

[ZBB]

I received a firmware update from Tesla last night... Moved me from version 4.5 to 5.6. That's not a typo -- Tesla released a 5.0 update a couple months ago that was halted due to bugs (and I never received), they skipped 5.1 to 5.4, released 5.5 on the early Europe cars, now have moved to 5.6 to converge Europe and North America cars.

Includes some nice updates:
- Maps now have a "car up" orientation option. Previous view was "north up" only.
- Includes Sleep Mode. The car will now go to sleep after about 30 minutes while previously all the on-board computers would stay awake. I was seeing ~7 miles of range loss per day just when parked -- and that should now go down to ~1 (which is what most other EVs have).
- Enables wi-fi -- so you can add the car to your home network. Doesn't allow the car to become a hotspot though (that's supposedly coming later). Speculation is that the free 3G coverage owners have had so far will become a paid subscription in the near future, so having wi-fi would allow options (such as using a Verizon or AT&T LTE hotspot to grant the car access)...
- A bunch of smaller changes. Adds a "screen cleaning" mode that disables touch input to clean the screen. Adds a version of the owner's manual to the screen. Adds a "towing mode" that turns the car off, but disables the parking brake to allow it to be towed (and I'm guessing this will work well for a car wash also)...