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Old 05-11-2020, 03:03 PM   #111
clyde
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May 11 update...

Carvana is buying cars again. Today's offer is $15,333. It's not enough to make me sell it, but I'm a bit apprehensive that it won't get any better than this.

New 2019/2020 inventory is very limited with only about 14 cars appropriately configured cars available within 500 miles. On May 1, there were 19 cars. 35 on April 4. There are a few used available and about a dozen have come up and sold in the past 40 days, some of them with very attractive asking prices.

Incentives have continued to be bad in April and May and given how the remaining ones are selling, I don't expect an improvement for June. The Mustang conquest rebate went away at the end of March and has not returned (of course), so it doesn't really matter that I still don't have the lien release to be able to transfer the title to my name.

The SCCA is trying to get the national Solo program going with a couple events in June (Charlotte, NC and Peru, IN) that I will not attend (if they happen, which they probably won't). The outlook for the rest of the season feels the same...even if they have national events, I do not think I will be participating unless the virus disappears or they find a fully effective cure/vaccine in time. Not sure if I'll do any local events either.

So, I don't have a lot of motivation to change cars NOW NOW NOW and I'm looking at how to switch cars in the most cost efficient manner.

Where used ones were not discounted much from new a few months ago, that seems to be changing. The used ones popping up have asking prices a lot lower than before...and they're selling almost immediately. If that buying appetite is sustainable, used prices will probably go back up. If not, they'll hold steadyish or drop some.

Meanwhile, the new car prices will likely hold steady at their "higher than I want to pay" level and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

Not sure what I want to do. And I keep glancing over at C7 GS cars...
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Old 05-11-2020, 03:28 PM   #112
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clyde View Post
May 11 update...

Carvana is buying cars again. Today's offer is $15,333. It's not enough to make me sell it, but I'm a bit apprehensive that it won't get any better than this.

New 2019/2020 inventory is very limited with only about 14 cars appropriately configured cars available within 500 miles. On May 1, there were 19 cars. 35 on April 4. There are a few used available and about a dozen have come up and sold in the past 40 days, some of them with very attractive asking prices.

Incentives have continued to be bad in April and May and given how the remaining ones are selling, I don't expect an improvement for June. The Mustang conquest rebate went away at the end of March and has not returned (of course), so it doesn't really matter that I still don't have the lien release to be able to transfer the title to my name.

The SCCA is trying to get the national Solo program going with a couple events in June (Charlotte, NC and Peru, IN) that I will not attend (if they happen, which they probably won't). The outlook for the rest of the season feels the same...even if they have national events, I do not think I will be participating unless the virus disappears or they find a fully effective cure/vaccine in time. Not sure if I'll do any local events either.

So, I don't have a lot of motivation to change cars NOW NOW NOW and I'm looking at how to switch cars in the most cost efficient manner.

Where used ones were not discounted much from new a few months ago, that seems to be changing. The used ones popping up have asking prices a lot lower than before...and they're selling almost immediately. If that buying appetite is sustainable, used prices will probably go back up. If not, they'll hold steadyish or drop some.

Meanwhile, the new car prices will likely hold steady at their "higher than I want to pay" level and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

Not sure what I want to do. And I keep glancing over at C7 GS cars...
Well right now inventory is declining and not being replenished. When the factories crank back up again, even at a limited clip, I think you'll see the prices on new ones fall/incentives appear.

I think come summer/fall the companies will be a very different mood about trying to make a deal.
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Old 05-11-2020, 03:38 PM   #113
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Well right now inventory is declining and not being replenished. When the factories crank back up again, even at a limited clip, I think you'll see the prices on new ones fall/incentives appear.

I think come summer/fall the companies will be a very different mood about trying to make a deal.
Entirely possible.

The other thing is that fleet sales are cratering. Hertz is in really bad shape, Enterprise declined delivery of 30k cars. Both (plus Avis and Budget) are about to flood the used car market...the only question seems to be with how many cars?

They'll join the pool of what appears to be a massive off-lease wave (that was coming this year even without the virus). Nearly a million cars are already sitting waiting for auction and no one knows how they're going to price.

There's a lot of speculation that this is a clam before the storm moment for used cars. The car I'm selling and the one I want to buy are not rental market cars, but they float on the same ocean.
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Old 05-11-2020, 05:40 PM   #114
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Fleet sales are not going to have any impact on your suspension packaged, manual sporty mobiles. I see from my neighborhood bike shop that they are about to run out of bikes to sell with supply not coming through.
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Old 05-11-2020, 05:48 PM   #115
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..I see from my neighborhood bike shop that they are about to run
out of bikes to sell with supply not coming through.
Yeah, finally decided on a new bike and not available until at least September
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Old 05-11-2020, 05:49 PM   #116
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Fleet sales are not going to have any impact on your suspension packaged, manual sporty mobiles. I see from my neighborhood bike shop that they are about to run out of bikes to sell with supply not coming through.
Yeah, bike stores around here are nuts. Not much supply of bikes, and social distancing means long lines. I went to 4 different places to get my kid a bike yesterday. Guy said they've had lots of new riders since there really isn't much else to do, exercise-wise.
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Old 05-13-2020, 09:10 AM   #117
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Carvana is buying cars again. Today's offer is $15,333. It's not enough to make me sell it, but I'm a bit apprehensive that it won't get any better than this.
I guess it got a little better. Today is $15,572.

My thinking has been I'd jump at a $16,500 offer. Seriously consider $16,000-$16,499 and just take note of anything under that.

Now...I dunno.

I'm feeling more confident that the used market is going to soon be overrun with cars that people have been waiting unload, lease returns (apparently 2020 is due to have an unusually high number of maturing leases), dumped rental cars (particularly from Hertz and Enterprise).

If reopenings continue unabated, my guess is that I have about a three week window (through first weekend of June) before the value of my car drops for good.

A few more used SS 1LEs have listed in the past few days and the initial asking prices have been lower, which strengthens my belief that what affects the car I'm selling will probably affect the car I'm buying (if I buy used), too, although there may be a lag factor. The used ones, especially the ones with the lower asking prices, are getting snapped up pretty quick. OTOH, there seem to be 3-4 consistently available configured the way I'd want.

And then there is still new.

My latest learning is that there is some small supply of 1LEs built that have been waiting for shipment since March. Those cars often show up in dealer inventories as "en route" so they may already be included in my tracker.

Also, sounds like GM is aiming to reopen the Lansing Grand River Assembly plant (where the Camaro, CT4, and CT5 are produced) on 5/25 where they would likely try to build a few more 2020 cars before moving to 2021 production.

The amount of money I stand to save or lose is not huge. From past discussions on this board, it's probably in the range of noise not worth the hassle of the grind, particularly in a crazy time like right now. Yet, somehow, I'm kind of obsessed.
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Old 05-22-2020, 05:26 PM   #118
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Originally Posted by clyde View Post
I guess it got a little better. Today is $15,572.

My thinking has been I'd jump at a $16,500 offer. Seriously consider $16,000-$16,499 and just take note of anything under that.

Now...I dunno.

I'm feeling more confident that the used market is going to soon be overrun with cars that people have been waiting unload, lease returns (apparently 2020 is due to have an unusually high number of maturing leases), dumped rental cars (particularly from Hertz and Enterprise).

If reopenings continue unabated, my guess is that I have about a three week window (through first weekend of June) before the value of my car drops for good.

A few more used SS 1LEs have listed in the past few days and the initial asking prices have been lower, which strengthens my belief that what affects the car I'm selling will probably affect the car I'm buying (if I buy used), too, although there may be a lag factor. The used ones, especially the ones with the lower asking prices, are getting snapped up pretty quick. OTOH, there seem to be 3-4 consistently available configured the way I'd want.

And then there is still new.

My latest learning is that there is some small supply of 1LEs built that have been waiting for shipment since March. Those cars often show up in dealer inventories as "en route" so they may already be included in my tracker.

Also, sounds like GM is aiming to reopen the Lansing Grand River Assembly plant (where the Camaro, CT4, and CT5 are produced) on 5/25 where they would likely try to build a few more 2020 cars before moving to 2021 production.

The amount of money I stand to save or lose is not huge. From past discussions on this board, it's probably in the range of noise not worth the hassle of the grind, particularly in a crazy time like right now. Yet, somehow, I'm kind of obsessed.
You think they are really processing offers now? Their website just offered me about 2K OVER what I would be happy with in unloading my Focus
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Old 05-23-2020, 01:56 PM   #119
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You think they are really processing offers now? Their website just offered me about 2K OVER what I would be happy with in unloading my Focus
Yes. They started selectively buying cars in some areas at the beginning of the month and transitioned to buying everywhere on 5/11.

If you have a Carmax in the area and you feel safe going in for an offer, you might want to try that, too. Good chance the offer will be within "I can walk away with a check this minute vs a few days from now with potential for anything to go wrong" range.
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Old 05-23-2020, 07:18 PM   #120
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Yes. They started selectively buying cars in some areas at the beginning of the month and transitioned to buying everywhere on 5/11.

If you have a Carmax in the area and you feel safe going in for an offer, you might want to try that, too. Good chance the offer will be within "I can walk away with a check this minute vs a few days from now with potential for anything to go wrong" range.
Thanks! regular dealer offered me close to what Carvana offered.

Focus is history
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