GM to be all EV by 2035?

[clyde]

Sounds like they're going to try

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/28/gene...s-by-2035.html

Found this link/story on another car board. The comments there were...well, this was one of them:

"I dont believe a word of anything I read on a NBC website... sorry..."

and that fit in pretty well.

[ZBB]

I saw the headline.

The reality is that if GM doesn't set their own target, regulators will. And some countries are already pushing to eliminate ICE new car sales by then.

There are also large fleet customers that are asking for the OEMs to move faster. My employer might just be one of them -- our target for all new fleet orders to be electric is about half as long (and that's a global target -- not just EU/US)... We order several thousand vehicles a year...

[clyde]

Originally Posted by ZBB

I saw the headline.

The reality is that if GM doesn't set their own target, regulators will. And some countries are already pushing to eliminate ICE new car sales by then.

There are also large fleet customers that are asking for the OEMs to move faster. My employer might just be one of them -- our target for all new fleet orders to be electric is about half as long (and that's a global target -- not just EU/US)... We order several thousand vehicles a year...

My new boss is big on the idea, too, and wants us to replace our fleet of 650,000 on-road vehicles with all EVs to the tune of about $20 billion. We normally buy about 35,000 a year and we tend towards cheapo, but heavy duty versions.

If you and your similarly sized business brothers and sisters and we all say, "we want to buy a lot of these," it probably won't take much regulation to force their availability.

The intriguing parts for me about GM saying no more ICE in/after 2035 is that means they only have 15 more years to recoup development costs they have already sunk into their current engines and it's hard to see them put more money into making them better over the next 15 years. Doesn't that leave them vulnerable to everyone else whether the other cars are powered by gas, diesel, electrons, or a combination?

Continuing development on existing engines, perhaps at a lower intensity, but continuing to make them available as long as enough people are buying them to keep production viable while switching everything towards electric at a more natural pace? I don't know. I'm sure GM knows what they're doing better than I could tell them. I'd just like to understand it better.

[JST]

VW and Daimler I think have already announced the notional sunset of ICE development. Whether that’s “real” or might slip a bit, the whole industry is sending a signal that ICE power train engineering is a dead end. If you’re in school now, is it something you’d start studying?

Like stonks, perception has a way of becoming reality. If the best and brightest young engineers are going into EVs and the companies are signaling that’s where the development dollars will go, then that’s where the development dollars will end up.

15 years is basically two product cycles. Some lines presumably will transition faster than others, but it means that if the last ICE engines aren’t being developed now, they will be soon.

Never fear, though—GM knows how to do dumb stuff (see eg Blackwing V8), so who knows what short lived lunacy lies between now and then.

[wdc330i]

Don’t you feel the clock ticking on buying or investing in the last of the generation of performance ICEs?

Particularly those of you who have manual iterations, we’re close to the time to hold onto those in perpetuity

I am sure that my next commodity vehicle to replace the Mazda will be an EV.

But, I can imagine always wanting some purist ICE in the stable. RWD for sure.

[John V]

It's an exciting time. I'm not particularly enthused about buying a GM EV per se, but I am excited that Tesla is going to have some real competition by the time I'm ready to buy my next car.

Makes me think I should preemptively wire a 50A 220V circuit into the garage . I just finished running two 220V circuits in the shop for the welder and air compressor, so it's all fresh in my mind at the moment...

[wdc330i]

Originally Posted by John V

It's an exciting time. I'm not particularly enthused about buying a GM EV per se, but I am excited that Tesla is going to have some real competition by the time I'm ready to buy my next car.

Makes me think I should preemptively wire a 50A 220V circuit into the garage . I just finished running two 220V circuits in the shop for the welder and air compressor, so it's all fresh in my mind at the moment...

Might as well! Parts for her charger were in short supply when my ex-wife got her Tesla, so who knows whether manufacturers will be able to keep up with the growing demand for power bits in an orderly fashion.

[John V]

I actually already have a 50A 220V breaker in one of our panels that's un-used, so the "parts" is just wire, a terminal box and the appropriate receptacle. The goal would be if we end up with an electric car, hooking up the charger would just be a plug-in affair.

[JST]

Originally Posted by John V

I actually already have a 50A 220V breaker in one of our panels that's un-used, so the "parts" is just wire, a terminal box and the appropriate receptacle. The goal would be if we end up with an electric car, hooking up the charger would just be a plug-in affair.

My OG Tesla EVSE wall unit is one of the ones that could max out at 80A, and takes up a 100A breaker on the panel. I'm thinking about splitting that and putting in a second circuit, so I could have two 50A breakers (and potentially accommodate a second EV, which I guess I will have to do at some point). The challenge would be where to put it.

The 80A unit is overkill for current Teslas, though I wonder whether future vehicles like the electric F-150 will need bigger capacity chargers.

I don't see a downside to running the wire now. The wall-mount EVSE from Tesla and third parties will presumably continue to improve/be refined, and if you get a Tesla (which seems unlikely, but who knows) you may want the proprietary plug.

[FC]

Originally Posted by John V

I actually already have a 50A 220V breaker in one of our panels that's un-used, so the "parts" is just wire, a terminal box and the appropriate receptacle. The goal would be if we end up with an electric car, hooking up the charger would just be a plug-in affair.

Yup. Even swapping the breaker is easy. You just want 6 AWG wire routed through.

When I built the detached garage I ran a 50A circuit to make it Tesla-ready. But the Bosch charger for the eGolf recommended a 40A circuit (breaker). So wen running the wire for the front garage I still ran 6AWG wire so if I get a Tesla and I want to park in the front, it's an easy breaker and charger change. I also changed the Bosch unit from hard-wire to plug-in by adding a drier plug to it, so I still have a perfectly usable, 240V/40A circuit with a standard drier receptacle.