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Old 03-31-2016, 11:39 AM   #61
John V
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I think you're right. I'm trying to alter my perception of what we need versus what we want, as the Model 3 is intriguing and I'd like to find a way to make it work for how I use my car (or for how my wife uses hers, since it realistically could replace either).

For regular commuting, there's no question. It would work great and be very convenient, especially since my wife no longer has any long days in the car anymore.
For long trips, we can always take the other car (the truck doesn't count... it has a specific need - towing and hauling - outside of which it's never used).

The question is, does it make sense. From a strictly cost-related point of view, even the cheapest number I've seen thrown out for the 3 ($35k?) makes it a hard sell if it's replacing a $25k GTI or similar car. Then there's the repair / maintenance aspect. Keeping it out of warranty isn't an option, because there's essentially no way to repair it without paying Tesla to do it. So it's purchase an extended warranty (with really bad terms, if Tesla holds on what they just released) or sell. Depreciation on the Model S has been at the poor end when compared to other premium cars. So the total cost of ownership is going to be pretty high as it's not a car we'd likely own for a couple hundred thousand miles before selling.

Another issue is the driving engagement one. The Model S is, for me at least, simply not fun to drive. Part of that is because it's big. But most of it is because it feels like an appliance. It's very fast, but it's missing the steering, brake, and chassis feel that makes a good car good. Will the 3 be better? It's a big unknown right now. It certainly can't replace something like the Boxster. A GTI? Maybe.
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Old 03-31-2016, 12:54 PM   #62
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... the Model 3 is intriguing and I'd like to find a way to make it work....
We have pretty much the same calculous. Let me know once you work out the answer.

With thousands of reservations going on today, I'm leaning towards not bothering. Probably be able to pick one up used by the time production ramps up. ASSUMING, even half of those people actually follow through - I suspect the retention rate will be pretty poor.
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Old 03-31-2016, 01:29 PM   #63
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From a cost standpoint, you need to compare the Model 3 with its intended competition -- which is really the 3 series/A4/ATS class, not a Golf or Mini. The Model S drives well for its class (it's in between the 5 and 7 series depending on options). But the battery mass both helps lower the CG, but adds mass that you can feel.

You should also compare the cost of the car plus cost of fuel. Even at current oil prices, for the driving I do (average of ~1200 miles a month), a 25 MPG car would use ~$90 a month in gas. I pay about $30 for electricity... $60 a month minimum savings (and more if gas prices go back up).

And early Model 3 will still get a rebate -- so that takes the price down a bit. But I still think a nicely optioned Model 3 will be at least $50K...
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Old 03-31-2016, 01:34 PM   #64
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There's supposedly over 900 people in line at Scottsdale!
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Old 03-31-2016, 01:41 PM   #65
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From a cost standpoint, you need to compare the Model 3 with its intended competition -- which is really the 3 series/A4/ATS class, not a Golf or Mini.
Says who? It's supposed to be a $35k everyman's commuter car, right? That's sounds more like a Camry.

I spend about $15/mo on gas for my commute in the m3. The math doesn't really work there.
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Old 03-31-2016, 01:48 PM   #66
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Says who? It's supposed to be a $35k everyman's commuter car, right? That's sounds more like a Camry.

I spend about $15/mo on gas for my commute in the m3. The math doesn't really work there.
That's kind of how they've been hyping it. But 35k is around the price of base A4 or 320. I'm sure the Model 3 will outperform a base A4 or 320, but will likely be similarly barebones. A real Camry competitor would need to start closer to 20k.
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Old 03-31-2016, 01:52 PM   #67
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Around 11 there was a decent line. Went out, had lunch, came back and the line was gone.

Reservation placed.

Now I have to wait until tonight to see what I just reserved.
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Old 03-31-2016, 02:00 PM   #68
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You had to wait in line like a commoner?
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Old 03-31-2016, 02:09 PM   #69
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I went to the mall store at the Pru at 11:45 and there was no wait at all.
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Old 03-31-2016, 02:16 PM   #70
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You had to wait in line like a commoner?
No, I didn't wait.

Left and came back.

But since I have a Model S my reservation is ahead of most of these people, anyway.
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