Tesla Model S waffling

[ZBB]

I agree with most of JST's points. But just a couple counterpoints:

1) Nissan seems to have figured this out too, at least partially. They are now sponsoring a CHAdeMO network -- offering a $15k rebate against Chademo units installed before year end (on top of the 30% federal tax rebate avail for installing EV charging equipment). There are currently hundreds of CHAdeMO units across the US -- although most are in pockets, like TN, WA, OR, CA and AZ. WA and OR have placed them about every 50 miles on the major highways -- so it does make a short road trip viable in a Leaf (I-10 between Tucson and Phoenix has 2 CHAdeMOs along the way, so Phoenix-Tucson trips are doable, although would require at least one 30-45 min stop)... Tesla will be releasing a CHAdeMO adapter soon -- and I'm considering getting it (would be helpful for destination charging on road trips).

2) The Tesla Supercharger isn't completely proprietary. It does have a proprietary plug, but it follows the SAE DC charging standard. The first SAE DC cars will go on sale in 2014 (the i3 uses it), so we should start seeing SAE DC chargers start popping up in the next few months. Tesla has not announced an adapter -- but everyone expects they will, and it should be much less expensive than the CHAdeMO adapter...

[John V]

Originally Posted by Josh (PA)

I agree with JST's thoughts in principle, but still think the time to charge (even if its an hour) is a real breakdown in the EV road-trip scenario. Having to plan for 1/3 of my road-trip driving to be stopped/charging is a no go. With Tesla, it's one hour down for every two hours driving. For a gasoline car its 5 minutes down for every 3.5 hours driving.

Well sort of, but not completely. When my wife and I go on a 200-300 mile trip that is generally true. Relatively little (or zero) downtime for fuel stops.

At some threshold though you will generally want to factor in bathroom stops and food stops which can now overlap with charging time. It's actually more convenient in one sense - you can't exactly leave your car outside filling up while you go sit down and have dinner. But that's exactly what you can do with the Tesla.

[ZBB]

Regarding Supercharging stops -- here's how our last family road trip to Disneyland went in my wife's MINI -- and how much longer it would have taken in the Tesla.

Total miles: ~375
Driving time: About 6 hours.
Stop 1: Wickenburg AZ -- 10 min potty break
Stop 2: Quartzsite AZ -- 35 min fuel / snack / potty break
Stop 3: Chiriaco Summit, CA -- 10 min potty break
Stop 4: Indio, CA -- 15 min snack break
Stop 4: ~Riverside, CA -- 10 min potty break
Total time including stops: About 7 hours 20 minutes.

With the Tesla, we'd still need some potty breaks (although probably 1 less now that my daughter is older). We'd also need charging stops:
Charge 1 -- Quartzsite -- the Supercharger is going in across the street from where we used to stop for gas. This would take perhaps 10 min more to get to ~90% charge
Charge 2 -- Indio -- A Supercharger is going in here, and would need a ~45 min charge. So an extra 30 min vs the previous Starbucks stop.

So that would add 40 min due to charging, less one potty break. Total trip time would now be 7 hours 50 minutes...

[Josh (PA)]

Originally Posted by JST

The logistics of the battery swap are beyond daunting. You either don't track batteries and do the propane tank model (where you come in and leave with a new battery) or you do what Musk was proposing, tracking batteries, shipping batteries, making you come back and get your old battery...that's a huge, huge hassle.

The musk model keeping track of your battery seems very flawed. I'm surprised that he's taken that approach, as there does not seem to be any benefit to the consumer. The 'propane tank' model makes more sense, as does some sort of subscription/lease service where the depreciation cost of batteries is recuperated. Customers wouldn't need to worry about their batteries deteriorating over time. Pull into a dealer, drop your discharged battery, install a fully charged one and off you go. The dealerships would manage battery age, capacity, etc.

Originally Posted by JST

As for roll-out, there's only one between NYC and DC currently. With the West Coast linked together, work is supposed to shift to the East Coast. I expect another in Edison soon, and there's supposed to be one on the western edge of the NJ suburbs, too. Then Hagerstown, Breezewood...

The map hasn't been completely accurate, but it's been pretty close.

http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger

I'd be interested to see a map of where Tesla's have been sold over-layed with the supercharger map.

[John V]

I can totally understand why someone would not want to swap out the battery from their $80,000 luxury sedan with no guarantee that they'd get it back.

[ZBB]

Originally Posted by Josh (PA)

The musk model keeping track of your battery seems very flawed. I'm surprised that he's taken that approach, as there does not seem to be any benefit to the consumer. The 'propane tank' model makes more sense, as does some sort of subscription/lease service where the depreciation cost of batteries is recuperated. Customers wouldn't need to worry about their batteries deteriorating over time. Pull into a dealer, drop your discharged battery, install a fully charged one and off you go. The dealerships would manage battery age, capacity, etc.

Except that a company called A Better Place tried that model and has already gone BK. They had battery swap stations rolled out in Israel, supporting a Renault EV...

I've also seen various posts at TMC in the last week, where the poster had spoken with some of the Tesla reps at last week's West Coast Supercharger events that suggest that battery swapping may be mothballed, or at least put on the backburner. I could see Tesla setting up a test site or two for battery swapping, but I just don't think the economics work...

[bren]

Originally Posted by John V

I can totally understand why someone would not want to swap out the battery from their $80,000 luxury sedan with no guarantee that they'd get it back.

I don't think it would be an issue assuming they built some diagnostics into the stations so that problem batteries/cells could be properly identified and removed from circulation. What difference would it make so long as there is an endless supply of decent batteries....

[John V]

Originally Posted by bren

I don't think it would be an issue assuming they built some diagnostics into the stations so that problem batteries/cells could be properly identified and removed from circulation. What difference would it make so long as there is an endless supply of decent batteries....

So you would be OK swapping the battery in your brand new Tesla with one that checks out fine but has been in use for 2 years?

[JST]

Originally Posted by John V

So you would be OK swapping the battery in your brand new Tesla with one that checks out fine but has been in use for 2 years?

The more difficult issue, I think, is whether Tesla would be fine *accepting* your battery that's been in use for 2 years.

The problem of degradation in capacity is very real, though sizing it is difficult. There's some precedent from the Roadsters, and there is some anecdotal evidence from higher mileage owners, but the samples are small and varied enough to make any conclusions difficult.

This is maybe the biggest downside risk I see for Tesla going forward, both because of the Resale Value Guarantee specifically and because of the impact on resale more generally.

There are lots of potential business models that you could build around swapping, from subscription/recycling to simple upgrades to the Byzantine swap/track/replace model that Musk mooted. I suspect that Tesla is looking at all of them, but trying to roll out anything like that while the company is a) developing the Model X, b) building out its service and retail infrastructure globally, c) building out its Supercharger network, d) developing battery tech; e) laying the groundwork for the Model E, is asking a lot.

[Rob]

The battery stop only works if the place to swap is open, not busy, and close to your route. If you waste 30 minutes getting to the dealer that is across town from your route and the super charger is on the route, the super charger is a better bet. I don't see anybody investing enough in batteries to have swapping ability as convenient as gas stations are and I suspect (without any data to back it up) that super charging stations are much less expensive than battery swapping facilities.