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Old 11-07-2013, 11:06 AM   #501
dan
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another fire, another big stock drop
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Old 11-07-2013, 11:13 AM   #502
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another fire, another big stock drop
Is it cheap enough to buy yet?
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Old 11-07-2013, 11:17 AM   #503
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Is it cheap enough to buy yet?
I dunno. You have to ask undefined. I don't think anything that's happened over the past few days undermines the long-term prospects of the company, which I think are pretty damn compelling. But the market moves to a different drummer.

On the 3rd fire, the rumor is that it started after the car ran over a tow hitch. Would that have caused a fire in a "normal" car? Eh, probably not. But it may well have resulted in similarly disabling damage.
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Old 11-07-2013, 12:10 PM   #504
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I dunno. You have to ask undefined. I don't think anything that's happened over the past few days undermines the long-term prospects of the company, which I think are pretty damn compelling. But the market moves to a different drummer.

On the 3rd fire, the rumor is that it started after the car ran over a tow hitch. Would that have caused a fire in a "normal" car? Eh, probably not. But it may well have resulted in similarly disabling damage.
Of all the reasons to buy or not buy a Tesla or its stock the fire thing seems the most irrelevant. Every car catches fire in the right type of circumstances. A scenario that might have caused a fire in an ICE car might not with a Tesla and vice versa.

But the fact that the stock moves so much on trivial events reminds us all that it is a volatile stock that can have large moves for little reason. I agree with JST that if you like the long term prospects buy and hold (maybe don't even check the price regularly), but trying to speculate on the perfect "buy in" point is impossible. I do think they had an unusually long run of good luck where there was almost no "bad news", which always made me kind of nervous. Cause when the shoe does drop (and you know it will) the fall is harder.
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Old 11-07-2013, 12:38 PM   #505
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Those are pretty high expectations.... half the weight would be something like 2200 pounds and I don't think there any new cars sold in the US anywhere near that weight. And 3x the range would be like 600-700 miles which very few ICE cars come close to. I do think close to half the price, and some weight reduction will occur when they introduce the Model E however. But I'd expect the range to be no greater than the current 85 model.
Why wouldn't the range be significantly higher if the same powertrain were offered in a car that was much lighter?

I haven't read my weight tables chart in CR since last April's issue, but there are cars at least under 3000 lbs - the nearer to 2300 - 2600 lbs (or so) figure would be some of the new mini cars like the Fiat 500 (base) and Nissan Note.

A car the size of the Tesla could be made much lighter, but it would require more advanced materials and construction techniques - I'd love to see a changeover and commitment like this, but significant partnership between private and public entities would likely be required ... hard to see happening in today's political climate.

.... and then there's the steel industry to contend with.

As an aside, my 2000 E320 weighs in at 3700lbs, which is light for a car of its size (by today's standards) - it turns in decent mileage (I'm averaging high 20's thanks to lots of highway driving).

I understand the Tesla isn't about raw numbers at this point, but I wish there were more of a commitment to lighter weight via different materials, manner of construction etc. - the technology exists.
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Old 11-07-2013, 01:03 PM   #506
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On the 3rd fire, the rumor is that it started after the car ran over a tow hitch. Would that have caused a fire in a "normal" car? Eh, probably not. But it may well have resulted in similarly disabling damage.
How many failures were caused by the BMW aux fan switch debacle in 2001? I remember a few X5s burning up on Bimmerfest. A year ago a friend's townhouse burned down because his neighbor's S Class spontaneously combusted in their garage. Heck a bunch of 458s torched themselves because some composite part was too close to something hot. I think the fire thing is pretty overblown, but it makes for sensational reporting.

Off topic, but a friend of a friend lost his Cayman last week to an IMS failure. He missed the class action suit cut off date by less than a month. Edit, just heard Porsche is taking care of him with a remanufactured engine at their expense... $23k...
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Old 11-07-2013, 01:06 PM   #507
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Sure, it could be a bit lighter. It could also cost another $50k.
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Old 11-07-2013, 01:07 PM   #508
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Sure, it could be a bit lighter. It could also cost another $50k.
Which is why I mentioned "partnerships" ...

In this country, if we're ever to truly rethink our source of energy and how we power vehicles, the commitment has to be a team effort, led with a fair degree of creativity and vision.

The Tesla is a very nice car with a very high price tag, relatively heavy weight, small range and an excited base of enthusiasts willing to be early adopters.

Right now for my purposes, the practical solution, if I were going plugin, would be to pick up a PI hybrid, like a Volt (no range issues) - then for local stuff - perhaps a Leaf. Best of both worlds for almost the cost of a Tesla.

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Old 11-07-2013, 01:18 PM   #509
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Why wouldn't the range be significantly higher if the same powertrain were offered in a car that was much lighter?

I haven't read my weight tables chart in CR since last April's issue, but there are cars at least under 3000 lbs - the nearer to 2300 - 2600 lbs (or so) figure would be some of the new mini cars like the Fiat 500 (base) and Nissan Note.

A car the size of the Tesla could be made much lighter, but it would require more advanced materials and construction techniques - I'd love to see a changeover and commitment like this, but significant partnership between private and public entities would likely be required ... hard to see happening in today's political climate.

.... and then there's the steel industry to contend with.

As an aside, my 2000 E320 weighs in at 3700lbs, which is light for a car of its size (by today's standards) - it turns in decent mileage (I'm averaging high 20's thanks to lots of highway driving).

I understand the Tesla isn't about raw numbers at this point, but I wish there were more of a commitment to lighter weight via different materials, manner of construction etc. - the technology exists.

http://www.edmunds.com/car-reviews/t...alkaround.html

Ed, the Tesla is pretty far along this path already. Look at this suspension walk-around; check out the lengths they've gone to even in the suspension to save weight. The rest of the car *is* light, being made primarily of aluminium. Yes, it could be lighter if they used carbon fiber or something, but then it would also be so expensive that even Silicon Valley tech mavens would think twice. And besides, it can only be so light, given that the battery weighs as much as it does.

Criticizing the Tesla for not weighing half as much as it does is like criticizing the Boeing 707 for not being able to go Mach 3. I mean, it's a quantum leap past everything that's come before, and you're pissed that it doesn't leap far enough forward?

In any event, the real problem with range isn't weight--it's drag. A car that weighed half as much as the Tesla probably would have slightly better range, but it wouldn't be as much better as you are thinking.
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Old 11-07-2013, 01:32 PM   #510
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http://www.edmunds.com/car-reviews/t...alkaround.html

Ed, the Tesla is pretty far along this path already. Look at this suspension walk-around; check out the lengths they've gone to even in the suspension to save weight. The rest of the car *is* light, being made primarily of aluminium. Yes, it could be lighter if they used carbon fiber or something, but then it would also be so expensive that even Silicon Valley tech mavens would think twice. And besides, it can only be so light, given that the battery weighs as much as it does.

Criticizing the Tesla for not weighing half as much as it does is like criticizing the Boeing 707 for not being able to go Mach 3. I mean, it's a quantum leap past everything that's come before, and you're pissed that it doesn't leap far enough forward?

In any event, the real problem with range isn't weight--it's drag. A car that weighed half as much as the Tesla probably would have slightly better range, but it wouldn't be as much better as you are thinking.
Im not "pissed" about it at all - I just don't get the appeal given the amount of planning one must engage in to drive 135 miles from home - I drive 160 miles a day to NJ and back, twice a week, to teach classes. There's no supercharged charger of any kind at the college. I'm not sure how I'd feel about driving a car like this given those limitations - especially after having spent considerably to obtain one.

I'd also be concerned, being here in the NE, that extreme cold weather would compromise output while simultaneously expecting heating and defrosting elements to do their work.

Perhaps if there were a real infrastructure in place for recharging, I'd feel differently.
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