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Old 04-17-2020, 11:18 AM   #11
kognito
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This probably won't effect my lease, I still want to buy the truck at the end of lease. But sounds like many are having issues this month.

Most car dealers are schmucks, this will be remembered by many

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...os/5120328002/
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Old 04-17-2020, 11:50 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kognito View Post
This probably won't effect my lease, I still want to buy the truck at the end of lease. But sounds like many are having issues this month.

Most car dealers are schmucks, this will be remembered by many

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...os/5120328002/
That's crazy. I thought the article would be about people wanting to turn the car in early. Crazy they wont take them 'aft the lease expired!
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Old 04-17-2020, 04:10 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kognito View Post
This probably won't effect my lease, I still want to buy the truck at the end of lease. But sounds like many are having issues this month.

Most car dealers are schmucks, this will be remembered by many

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...os/5120328002/
I just returned our A4 yesterday, I really did not want to go to the dealer and encounter anyone even though sales are closed and the showroom is dead.

Prior to returning the car I had asked Audi financial if they could extend the grace period of 3 days to 10 days and the answer was pretty much no ... they gave me a 5 day grace period ... I could have argued but figured screw it let me get this car off our driveway.

Anyway I know the manager pretty well and he totally took of care of me but he also said delivery's are down over 95% ...
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Old 04-22-2020, 12:30 AM   #14
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https://www.autonews.com/finance-ins...ek-forbearance

Quote:
Ally said 25 percent of its auto-loan customers have asked for payment deferrals, and the vast majority have never been delinquent before.
That's not good.

https://www.autonews.com/retail-tech...vehicle-market

Quote:
"Through the latest week, retail sales nationwide are down about two-thirds relative to the same week last year," Smoke said. "But on the shopping side, we're closer to 11 or 12 percent down, meaning that there's still traffic. There's still consumers engaging for both new and used vehicles."

In an interview last week, Smoke also pointed out that the virus has had a lesser impact on consumer website traffic than on vehicle sales. Automaker incentives are getting shoppers' attention, he said, but in some cases they're not yet leading to sales because would-be buyers are prevented from transacting because of government orders that have temporarily closed showrooms.
This kind of aligns with my thoughts above. There's also this:
Quote:
LotLinx, an automotive marketing technology company that targets buyers deep in the buying process, says its data about inventory and shopper volumes through the end of March and into April also indicates consumers remain interested in buying cars. The COVID-19 outbreak is keeping many low-funnel prospective buyers from completing purchases, CEO Len Short told Automotive News.

"I think we have evidence that when markets open up, people will buy more cars," Short said.
Which links to https://marketreports.lotlinx.com/ which is interesting, but dunno about accuracy. Overall, it suggests a lot of people want to buy cars, but they're not buying them. It might also be showing a lot of people are spending more time browsing cars because they have a lot of time on their hands but they're never going to buy them.
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Old 04-22-2020, 08:39 AM   #15
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RE: delinquencies going up... I've mentioned it here a couple of times, but the moment I saw news of mass layoffs/furloughs I had a strong feeling the huge car loan bubble would burst. Loan terms are ridiculously long nowadays.
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Old 04-22-2020, 05:41 PM   #16
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I have no idea of the provenance of this, but for what it's worth:

https://twitter.com/tyson_jominy/sta...73172204830720
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Old 04-22-2020, 06:13 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by JST View Post
I have no idea of the provenance of this, but for what it's worth:

https://twitter.com/tyson_jominy/sta...73172204830720
Iím seeing data like this at work...

Not just US either. One start I heard is that a lesser that normally successfully auctions 90% of their lease returns in Europe is seeing only 10% sell...
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Old 04-22-2020, 10:08 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by JST View Post
I have no idea of the provenance of this, but for what it's worth:

https://twitter.com/tyson_jominy/sta...73172204830720
It jibes with everything else but it's only one data point missing others you might want to draw a picture (although some, but not all, of them are briefly mentioned in the comments)
  • Dealers taking trades have nowhere to sell them, customers or auction
  • Dealers have control over how much they pay for trades and zero control over how much they pay for new product...
  • ...and very little control over how much new product they have to/can buy and total control over how much used product they buy
  • Dealers spend as little as they can on used cars; coronavirus is a legit reason to pay less than they were eight weeks ago
  • Used car prices appear to have only dropped about 1% so far, but no consensus on whether they are selling or not
  • On the dealer upside, there is potential for a windfall if used car sales are strong on the other side while they've protected their downside if sales are weak
  • There are similarities to the oil futures thing in that there's all this product, no one that really wants to buy it today, and there's no where to put it in the meantime

The William Goldman line, "Nobody knows anything...Not one person in the entire [industry of your choice] knows for a certainty what's going to work. Every time out, it's a guess and, if you're lucky, an educated one," applies here.

I'm not sure there's much to read into the used car market right now other than it being a barometer of the used car market, right now. But maybe there is.

As it applies to my situation, my educated guess is that it's going to cost me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZBB View Post
Iím seeing data like this at work...

Not just US either. One start I heard is that a lesser that normally successfully auctions 90% of their lease returns in Europe is seeing only 10% sell...
Are they holding the same number of auctions as normal? The number of auctions in the US is way, way down.
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Old 04-23-2020, 01:09 PM   #19
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You guys outta try selling airplanes these days....

LOL...NOT!!!!!
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Old 04-23-2020, 01:20 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by lip277 View Post
You guys outta try selling airplanes these days....

LOL...NOT!!!!!
Yikes.
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