Tesla Model S waffling

[JST]

Originally Posted by equ

I get the Tesla arguments. The only full EV car I drove was the i3, and even that odd thing was a revelation.

However, if battery tech does indeed break through, isn't TSLA at great risk as they have not only designed a car around current tech but they have built massive infrastructure? What they did is what I'd do if my stock was flying so high, invest aggressively to snuff potential competitors out. It's a risky but rational gambit. It will be interesting to see how it all turns out.

I think you have to define what you mean by "break through" as far as battery tech goes. My general understanding is that the Tesla physical pack can handle a variety of chemistry changes without big changes to the production equipment, though I am sure radical changes in chemistry could be a problem.

Lemming seems to be on the bleeding edge of this stuff, so maybe he has an insider view of where the tech is going, but I take it that the likelihood of a radical new chemistry coming along that would both be a significant breakthrough and also be ready for production in the next few years is pretty small.

[Rob]

Originally Posted by equ

However, if battery tech does indeed break through, isn't TSLA at great risk as they have not only designed a car around current tech but they have built massive infrastructure?

Isn't it a risk to buy a car that might be 20% less efficient than the next one b/c of a battery break through? If I were to buy a Volt (thought about it) or a hybrid (not going to happen), I would probably lease just b/c of the pace technology is changing . . . there may be real and meaningful improvements available in a few years.

But the infrastructure? Battery break through might change things, but they will still have to be charged. I suspect the infrastructure will pay off even if the car business doesn't.

[John V]

Presumably Tesla's charging infrastructure is designed so it is easily adaptable to newer battery technology.

[ZBB]

Originally Posted by John V

Presumably Tesla's charging infrastructure is designed so it is easily adaptable to newer battery technology.

Exactly. You still have to get current into the battery -- regardless of technology used. Where that technology may impact is:
- How fast you can charge a battery
- How much energy can be stored in a # of cells (which impacts weight).
- How long a battery will last before it degrades (or the degrade curve).

Tesla is apparently already on the 4th gen battery for the Model S. There are at least 2 battery chemistries also. The "A" packs were in the first ~3-4k cars and have a limitation at Superchargers -- max of 90kW charging. Newer packs can Supercharge at up to 120kW (33% faster...)

[lemming]

can't comment on the battery tech i see because it's under wraps.

but here is a datapoint for end-of-lease residual:

http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s...tid=nl80059719

looks good.

[ZBB]

Originally Posted by lemming

but here is a datapoint for end-of-lease residual:

http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s...tid=nl80059719

looks good.

Just came across an eBay listing for a Model S that was likely produced the same day mine was (the VIN is <20 lower than mine...). http://www.ebay.com/itm/Tesla-Other-...US_Cars_Trucks

Its also configured similar to mine -- only differences compared to mine are (note -prices were from when I ordered in March '13):

• It has the upgraded stereo $900
• It has the multi-coat Pearl White paint $1500
• It doesn't have the pano roof $1500
• It doesn't have the rear parcel shelf $250
• The following differences had no price difference from mine: black leather (I have tan), piano black trim (I have the obeche gloss wood)
• Its not clear from the description if Supercharging is enabled -- but lets assume it is

So the sticker was $650 more than mine.

Will be interesting to see where this auction ends. Its currently at $62.2k with 5 days left and 20 bids. Its under the reserve, and the Buy It Now is $75.5k

Oh... that Buy It Now price is ~$3k higher than the after-tax credit cost of that car new, and pretty close to what buying a new Model S would cost equipped the same ($75.8k after the Federal tax credit).

[lemming]

Originally Posted by ZBB

Exactly. You still have to get current into the battery -- regardless of technology used. Where that technology may impact is:
- How fast you can charge a battery
- How much energy can be stored in a # of cells (which impacts weight).
- How long a battery will last before it degrades (or the degrade curve).

Tesla is apparently already on the 4th gen battery for the Model S. There are at least 2 battery chemistries also. The "A" packs were in the first ~3-4k cars and have a limitation at Superchargers -- max of 90kW charging. Newer packs can Supercharge at up to 120kW (33% faster...)

the tech that i've assessed for hedge fund folks is/are aimed at power density so the upstream and downstream is the same, true.

what i cannot speak to, in terms of business model, is if the tech stays proprietary and exclusive to one manufacturer or goes mainstream, thereby lifting all boats with the same tide.

if I were Tesla, I would prefer to corner the market on advanced battery tech so at a minimum they get licensing fees from fast-followers.

[JST]

I admit that I don't know enough about charging to know the answer to JV's question.

A Model S comes with either one or two on board chargers that convert AC power to DC power for the batteries.

A supercharger is -- literally -- just a stack of these chargers. I think there are 12 per cabinet. The supercharger bypasses the car's onboard charger(s) and feeds DC directly to the battery.

My assumption is that, so long as the pack uses the same signaling protocols and accepts the same range of input volts and amps, the charger (or supercharger) will be agnostic as to what the battery's chemistry actually is.

But I am happy for an EE to correct me/teach me.

[jpgurl]

Telsa Patents

[ZBB]

Quick update... That eBay auction ended last night.

Final bid was $70,100, but it didn't hit reserve. The seller dropped the Buy it Now by $2500 to $73k before it ended too...

Still good to know -- gives an indication of what I could get for my car if I needed to sell it. $70k would be only 3.5% depreciation from the after-credit price I paid, and ~10% after factoring in sales tax cost. Not bad for a year into a car...

I still expect it to depreciate in line with other high-end sedans, but if I had to sell it today, I'd be in great shape...