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Originally Posted by JST
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It jibes with everything else but it's only one data point missing others you might want to draw a picture (although some, but not all, of them are briefly mentioned in the comments)
- Dealers taking trades have nowhere to sell them, customers or auction
- Dealers have control over how much they pay for trades and zero control over how much they pay for new product...
- ...and very little control over how much new product they have to/can buy and total control over how much used product they buy
- Dealers spend as little as they can on used cars; coronavirus is a legit reason to pay less than they were eight weeks ago
- Used car prices appear to have only dropped about 1% so far, but no consensus on whether they are selling or not
- On the dealer upside, there is potential for a windfall if used car sales are strong on the other side while they've protected their downside if sales are weak
- There are similarities to the oil futures thing in that there's all this product, no one that really wants to buy it today, and there's no where to put it in the meantime
The William Goldman line, "Nobody knows anything...Not one person in the entire [
industry of your choice] knows for a certainty what's going to work. Every time out, it's a guess and, if you're lucky, an educated one," applies here.
I'm not sure there's much to read into the used car market right now other than it being a barometer of the used car market, right now. But maybe there is.
As it applies to my situation, my educated guess is that it's going to cost me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZBB
I’m seeing data like this at work...
Not just US either. One start I heard is that a lesser that normally successfully auctions 90% of their lease returns in Europe is seeing only 10% sell...
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Are they holding the same number of auctions as normal? The number of auctions in the US is way, way down.