Quote:
Originally Posted by JST
I didn't suggest that it's the same as what the rest of the industry does; I asked whether it was "worse" than that.
I think, broadly, that you're right about the way the company works, and I have no illusions about whether Musk would be a good person to work for. He sounds terrible, on a day to day basis.
At the same time, I just think the view of the company tends to be too polarized. On the one side you've got fanbois who fawn over everything he does; on the other you've got the $TSLAQ crowd who shades the whole enterprise as some sort of con.
I'm somewhere in between, though admittedly am more bullish on Tesla than some. The company has indeed made some way overhyped claims, ranging from small things like range and HP on the early Model S P85Ds to larger things like "autopilot" and "full self driving." At the same time, it is a huge mistake to allow that to shade your view of the company's actual accomplishments, which -- objectively -- are kind of insane.
Part of that comes from being an owner. I don't think it's easy to have the same sort of jaded view of Tesla that you and Clyde have when you drive the car everyday, and everyday a) experience it as a real, legitimate car that isn't vaporware at all, and b) experience it as a car that is in most important ways still *years* ahead of any competitive product.
And maybe that shades into how much slack I'm willing to cut Musk. When he introduced the Roadster 10 years ago, I thought the specs were literally unbelievable, as in I was convinced it couldn't happen. When I drove the Model S for the first time 3 years later, I was prepared for it to be a disappointment; instead, it completely upended my paradigm about what a car could be. When I heard about the price and specs of the Model 3, I didn't believe they could do that, either--I thought, like the Roadster, that the prices would eventually creep up. They didn't. And while the 35K Model 3 remains elusive (and provides a great talking point for Tesla bears), I can't ignore the fact that dollar-for-dollar the Model 3 is a better buy than the BMW 3 series, and yet it performs just as well if not better. That's fucking amazing, when you think about it.
So, do I think the specs of the truck are engineering targets rather than reality? Not really. The Raven drivetrain they are using now and the Plaid 3 motor setup they're in the process of developing for the Model S next year can deliver those numbers, no sweat. The biggest push goal is probably the range and the price, not because Tesla can't build a 500 mile truck, but because of how much it costs to do so; I suspect there won't be many single motor units sold, and that the average transaction price will be above 50K. But even there, Tesla has probably the best handle on what cost reductions in batteries are going to look like over the next 18-24 months as anyone in the world; I do not doubt for a second that they believe they can sell this truck for 50K and make a profit on it. And I don't doubt they are right about that.
|
I think that's generally quite well put. The only electric car I've driven was the i3 years ago and even that was - to me - a good experience. Other than the EV drivetrain with modest specs, I very much liked the open pore wood, the visibility, the basics of hatchback driving with RWD and the feeling of being in a quality carbon fiber structure. I'm sure the Teslas are much better, especially in terms of power/range... There is hardly any desirable new car left in the marketplace outside of them. Believe it or not, I've twice advised 3-series sort of folks to at least give the Model 3 a try.
I wasn't too concerned with the power/range specs of the cybertruck but more by the design - which doesn't seem "right" or even have anything to do with any of their other products; part of me might be rejecting them irrationally, but then there is a part of me that thinks they have designed some good things and feel strongly let down by this. The Model S is spot on, so many years on, it still looks good. The truck hits the opposite end of that, I'm highly doubtful they'll make money on it in the conventional way, but that's just a guess.
I also think the Mach-E might be the first serious EV competitor to Tesla unless Ford finds a way to f*** up their quality - though that would not surprise me.