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Originally Posted by JST
In terms of actual cost? It's probably more than that, though I don't know whether anyone has ever actually bought a replacement pack from Tesla yet and paid retail.
But it's also different in terms of risk; in the early years it's much less likely (and Tesla offers an 8 year warranty that covers defects), but I suppose at some point it becomes much more likely.
In theory, there probably will be salvage packs you'll be able to buy in the out years, though I don't know whether Tesla will support those.
The Roadster provides a window into how Tesla may deal with this going forward; at some point they developed an entirely new replacement pack that could go into the Roadster because the old ones were out of production.
I assume, but don't know for sure, that at some point they'd do something similar for the Model S and Model X, but that date is probably a long way off since the current gen packs are still being built.
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Will be interesting to see how it all develops. At some point, things should clarify. Until then, I'm constantly trying to build a metal crosswalk. In the end, owning a vehicle will require maintenance and repairs. The systems may change, the method of repair and replace may change, and costs and service times may change, but it's all the same. Just depends what pops out over there when you poke it here.