Quote:
Originally Posted by SARAFIL
Also really wondering how hard the correction will be - my residual is $50k, will it really drop almost $25k in value in next year? Doubt the supply will increase that much to drop the bottom out of it. Who knows. A lot of scenarios to think about!
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The uptick this time was much faster and more dramatic than the slow rise last spring/summer. The fall from peak late summer to its recent bottom mid-winter was just about as gradual. From mid-winter to mid-spring, it was a steeper climb, but mid-spring on was like a rocketship.
As soon as used inventory starts to exceed demand just a bit, I think trade values will all but collapse in very short order and (barring additional global shocks) take another 60-90 days to find a new equilibrium. When that's going to be though?
There's a lot of nearly complete new inventory waiting for just a module or two and then they can ship. It shouldn't take a very long time to refill dealer lots