Quote:
Originally Posted by JST
I mean, it's your last point that's key. Since the used car market is being driven in large part by a shortage in new cars, the spike is likely to keep going until new car supplies normalize (or the bottom falls out of the economy). When will that be? I mean, a few months at least, probably.
As far as a deal on a new one...what does "shit" mean? And do you need an X5 replacement, and does it have to be a lease? Even if the deals are bad, are they so bad that they erase a 9K profit on the old one?
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I’ve been eyeing various options as a 2nd car if I decided to finally pull the trigger and replace the 340 but hadn’t thought of any X5 replacements. We honestly love it for the purpose it serves so I think if I even brought up the subject the answer would be “let’s look at another X5” or maybe an X7 (which we definitely don’t need). I guess there might be something Benz, Range Rover, etc. that would also pique other half’s curiosity but we all know I’m a BMW guy so I know what way I’d lean. Also not sure deals are to be had on any of these options. But at least it gives me something new to research for a few days!
As for shit deal- our current car was almost 11% off MSRP plus $3000 in lease incentives and 57% residual. Just going by the deals on leasehakr right now, a replacement would be 5-6% off MSRP, $1500 incentives and 52% residual. These are 90-100k cars depending on options so yea, 5% less residual and 5% less discount pretty much eat up 9k equity. Could basically roll it all into a new lease and come out even which is kind of “meh”. Not opposed to buying but in that case still left with ~$80k balance after trade which is a big number. At that $$ definitely prefer the flexibility a lease provides.
So I guess it’s all academic but does make me feel a bit better knowing I have some equity in car in short term if I needed to do something. Also really wondering how hard the correction will be - my residual is $50k, will it really drop almost $25k in value in next year? Doubt the supply will increase that much to drop the bottom out of it. Who knows. A lot of scenarios to think about!