carmudgeons.com

carmudgeons.com (http://forums.carmudgeons.com/index.php)
-   Perseverators Anonymous (http://forums.carmudgeons.com/forumdisplay.php?f=28)
-   -   Tesla Model ≡ Thread (http://forums.carmudgeons.com/showthread.php?t=121553)

ZBB 03-27-2016 12:23 PM

Tesla Model ≡ Thread
 
Figured I'd start a new thread on the Model ≡

From the Chevy SS thread:

Quote:

Originally Posted by JST (Post 474411)
I've been thinking...

If I put money down on the Model 3 on Thurs, and then buy one of these to replace the Model S toward the end of the year...

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZBB (Post 474414)
So you're putting a deposit on a Model 3? I can't decide if I want to or not… Mostly since I'm not sure I'd want to get one in the first 6-12 months of build. Talked to a Model X owner a week ago and his X has some build quality issues (including some scratches in the paint on the A-pillars -- he thinks the windshield install went awry…). My Model S was built 11 months after the first deliveries -- and it has a few minor build quality issues. But I guess a refundable $1k would at least hold a spot...

Quote:

Originally Posted by TD (Post 474417)
I will be putting a deposit down on the Model 3 as well.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JST (Post 474418)
Not sure about the Model 3, but I'll probably put cash down on the first day, pending the reveal anyway.


JST 03-27-2016 12:28 PM

Ha. Was thinking of starting this thread last night.

One thing to remember when putting cash down; the Model 3 will almost certainly launch like the X and the S, with the highest spec cars produced first. So, unless you're planning on ordering a fully kitted out Model 3 (which will prob be 80 or 90 grand), it's not clear that putting money down first will get you one of the first cars built.

I'm hoping that Tesla has learned something from the X, and that the 3 will have fewer goofy features that delay production. But we'll know at least a little more Thursday evening.

ZBB 03-27-2016 12:29 PM

Here's the link to the Model 3 Reservations Agreement that someone over at TMC found… Appears nearly identical to the Model S agreement I had when I put my deposit down (which was also with Tesla's Florida entity…).

https://www.teslamotors.com/sites/de..._agreement.pdf

ZBB 03-27-2016 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JST (Post 474430)
Ha. Was thinking of starting this thread last night.

One thing to remember when putting cash down; the Model 3 will almost certainly launch like the X and the S, with the highest spec cars produced first. So, unless you're planning on ordering a fully kitted out Model 3 (which will prob be 80 or 90 grand), it's not clear that putting money down first will get you one of the first cars built.

I'm hoping that Tesla has learned something from the X, and that the 3 will have fewer goofy features that delay production. But we'll know at least a little more Thursday evening.

Elon has already tweeted that the ≡ will be "simpler"… With the Bolt slated to go into production late this year, they need to keep on schedule.

As for the deposit, it may be the only way to get the full federal tax credit… Those phase out for a manufacturer once they sell 200k EVs in the US -- and Model ≡ will take Tesla over the limit fairly quickly.

For reference, the credit phase out works like this:
- Full Credit ($7500) avail through the calendar quarter after 200k cars are sold
- 50% of credit avail for the next 6 months
- 25% of credit avail for another 6 months
- No more credits for that manufacturer…

So if Tesla hits 200k cumulative US sales in June 2018, then the full credit will be avail through Sept 2018, 50% from Oct '18 to Mar '19 and 25% from Apr '19 to Sep '19...

clyde 03-27-2016 02:45 PM

Is it the "3" or the "hamburger"? I ask because I keep seeing people use the hamburger icon for it.

ZBB 03-27-2016 02:57 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Both...

Symbol will be the Tesla E, which is a hamburger. But it will be spoken as Model 3. Attached is an image they sent out about the reveal on Thurs...

Basically Tesla tried to trademark Model E, but Ford balked, claiming it was too similar to their now out of production E-series vans (the former Econoline)...

Speculation is that the smaller crossover will be Model Y -- if so, the Tesla model lineup would be S ≡ X Y

Alan 03-27-2016 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZBB (Post 474439)
Both...

Symbol will be the Tesla E, which is a hamburger. But it will be spoken as Model 3. Attached is an image they sent out about the reveal on Thurs...

Basically Tesla tried to trademark Model E, but Ford balked, claiming it was too similar to their now out of production E-series vans (the former Econoline)...

Speculation is that the smaller crossover will be Model Y -- if so, the Tesla model lineup would be S ≡ X Y

How did you even make that symbol ? I don't see it on my keyboard ...

When is this model 3 coming out ? From a quick Google search it looks like it will compete with the 3 series and with that instant power on feel it looks like it is going to be so something to really look into ...

In general do Tesla's have decent resale value ?

JST 03-27-2016 07:07 PM

Deliveries for the Model 3 are set to start in 2017, which I take to mean that they will deliver a few hundred cars in late 2017. I'd bet on early 2018 as the timeframe for delivery of a reservation you make on day 1, again assuming your going to buy a fully optioned car.

Resale? Meh. It's not terrible, but it's in line with other cars in this price range, which means the dropoff can be fairly precipitous.

What has hurt Model S resale is 1) a string of hardware updates that mean later cars are more capable than early cars, and 2) Tesla establishing a CPO program that makes private sale cars a lot less attractive.

I suspect the Model 3 will have some of the same issues.

bren 03-27-2016 08:02 PM

I'm inclined to place a deposit and see how things play out.

I can't imagine resale being very strong on one of these though, and build issues are also a big concern.

John V 03-28-2016 08:21 AM

Are we really going to call it the "≡?" :rolleyes:

JST 03-28-2016 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John V (Post 474463)
Are we really going to call it the "≡?" :rolleyes:

No. It's dumb. I won't do it.

Tesla should just call it the Model E if they want to use that symbol.

John V 03-28-2016 10:46 AM

It's especially dumb because that symbol already has a meaning.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_bar

dan 03-28-2016 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JST (Post 474474)
Tesla should just call it the Model E if they want to use that symbol.

Well they tried that but Ford didn't like it, right?

JST 03-28-2016 11:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by undefined (Post 474479)
Well they tried that but Ford didn't like it, right?

Yes, but Ford's claim seemed pretty weak. I suspect that they could have worked something out.

clyde 03-28-2016 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John V (Post 474475)
It's especially dumb because that symbol already has a meaning.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_bar

Wrong :p

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamburger_button

John V 03-29-2016 07:49 AM

That page is pretty weak :P

I'd never even heard the triple bar referred to as a hamburger button. That's the first thing I've learned today, congratulations.

ZBB 03-29-2016 10:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZBB (Post 474431)
Here's the link to the Model 3 Reservations Agreement that someone over at TMC found… Appears nearly identical to the Model S agreement I had when I put my deposit down (which was also with Tesla's Florida entity…).

https://www.teslamotors.com/sites/de..._agreement.pdf

Apparently Tesla updated the Model 3 Reservations Agreement. It is now much shorter -- appears they took out the option to delay delivery (which apparently a lot of X res holders have done).

Also, here's Tesla's blog post on the reservations process:
https://www.teslamotors.com/node/161...che=1459300603

John V 03-30-2016 08:12 AM

So you put down a deposit in early 2016 for a car that you won't get until early 2018 at the earliest. That sounds super.

bren 03-30-2016 09:00 AM

It's like a kickstarter campaign for a car. :/

Doing away with the deferral changes my calculus for sure. Hmmm....

John V 03-30-2016 10:11 AM

I guess if you are a "gotta be the first to have the shiny new thing" type of person, it makes sense. And Tesla's market is rich people with lots of disposable income, for sure.

I'm genuinely interested in the Model Triple Bar / Hamburger Button. But not so much that I can't wait until the car is actually available to sit in and drive :lol:

bren 03-30-2016 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John V (Post 474698)

I'm genuinely interested in the Model Triple Bar / Hamburger Button. But not so much that I can't wait until the car is actually available to sit in and drive :lol:

That's why the ability to defer the order was important to me.

JST 03-30-2016 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bren (Post 474711)
That's why the ability to defer the order was important to me.

Like I said above, the only way you'll be ordering "blind" is if you're prepared to order one of the fully loaded Pxx models. If you're thinking of something less than that, the cars will almost certainly be out and available to drive before you have to click the confirm button.

bren 03-30-2016 12:04 PM

I don't know what I'm ordering if I haven't seen/experienced what will be available.

JST 03-30-2016 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bren (Post 474714)
I don't know what I'm ordering if I haven't seen/experienced what will be available.

There will be some clarity late tomorrow, though it's not clear how much.

But, really, what's the worst that happens? Your place in line comes up, you haven't seen the car, so you cancel. Later, after you've seen the car, you re-order.

You're now in exactly the same position you would have been if you'd not put money down. You're only out the opportunity cost on $1000 for a year or so.

bren 03-30-2016 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JST (Post 474721)
There will be some clarity late tomorrow, though it's not clear how much.

But, really, what's the worst that happens? Your place in line comes up, you haven't seen the car, so you cancel. Later, after you've seen the car, you re-order.

You're now in exactly the same position you would have been if you'd not put money down. You're only out the opportunity cost on $1000 for a year or so.

Or just wait and see.

Then the issue becomes the rebate. Seems kind of silly to effectively spend $7500 more than another guy because of a few months one way or the other. I'd probably wait for a used one at that point though.

ZBB 03-30-2016 02:14 PM

Looks like some info may have been leaked: http://electrek.co/2016/03/30/tesla-model-3-specs/

This sounds like the full-spec version, not base... We'll see how close it is during the reveal.

JST 03-30-2016 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZBB (Post 474744)
Looks like some info may have been leaked: http://electrek.co/2016/03/30/tesla-model-3-specs/

This sounds like the full-spec version, not base... We'll see how close it is during the reveal.

Obviously, it goes without saying that you should take those specs with a grain of salt, but I'm going to go one step further--take everything you hear tomorrow with a grain of salt. Tesla is not at all above giving aggressive specs that later turn out to be either not right or only technically correct.

See, e.g., the range of the P85D, and the horsepower of same. Neither of those turned out to match, in the real world, what was announced at launch.

That said, there's nothing particularly surprising in those numbers. I don't think the performance version of the Model 3 will have an EPA range of 300+ miles, though it's possible that one of the lesser cars will--that's more likely a steady state cruising range (which is what Tesla generally quotes before getting certification). But I don't doubt a sub-4 second 0-60 time, given what they are already doing with the Model S.

Honestly, the spec that I think is the most optimistic in that leak is the top end of the price range. I'd be stunned if it maxes out at 60K. I'm guessing more like 80. Keep in mind that the price spread on the Model S is nearly $50,000.

John V 03-30-2016 04:11 PM

The interesting metric to me is miles / dollar. I honestly wouldn't really care if the thing did six seconds to 60 if it could go 300+ miles on a charge. That would open up the usage of the thing tremendously.

JST 03-30-2016 04:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John V (Post 474750)
The interesting metric to me is miles / dollar. I honestly wouldn't really care if the thing did six seconds to 60 if it could go 300+ miles on a charge. That would open up the usage of the thing tremendously.

Would it? I don't know--I don't see a huge difference in usability between a 250 mile range EV (which I own) and a 300 mile range EV. The number of times my car has been below 50 miles of charge is...maybe once?

Now, my driving is not your driving, and that extra 50 miles might be critical for you. But to me the real watershed mark is 200-250 miles, which we've already reached. At this point, it strikes me that the key is to make the batteries lighter and cheaper so the cars don't weigh and cost so much.

Josh (PA) 03-30-2016 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JST (Post 474751)
Would it? I don't know--I don't see a huge difference in usability between a 250 mile range EV (which I own) and a 300 mile range EV. The number of times my car has been below 50 miles of charge is...maybe once?

Now, my driving is not your driving, and that extra 50 miles might be critical for you. But to me the real watershed mark is 200-250 miles, which we've already reached. At this point, it strikes me that the key is to make the batteries lighter and cheaper so the cars don't weigh and cost so much.

Strictly from a personal use perspective, from my house to our lake cottage is between 267 and 297 miles. We do the drive at least 2x / month. We fill up when we leave, average 78mph and don't stop the whole way and make to the cottage in exactly 4hrs. When we get there, we have plenty of gas left to go to town the next morning for breakfast and fill up.

I'd want this car to be my family vehicle and be able to make that drive reliably and plug in when I get there without having to slow down or add more time to the drive. 300 miles is the minimum range a pure ev needs to have for it to work for me.

JST 03-30-2016 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Josh (PA) (Post 474753)
Strictly from a personal use perspective, from my house to our lake cottage is between 267 and 297 miles. We do the drive at least 2x / month. We fill up when we leave, average 78mph and don't stop the whole way and make to the cottage in exactly 4hrs. When we get there, we have plenty of gas left to go to town the next morning for breakfast and fill up.

I'd want this car to be my family vehicle and be able to make that drive reliably and plug in when I get there without having to slow down or add more time to the drive. 300 miles is the minimum range a pure ev needs to have for it to work for me.

No, it's not. If you want to do that drive, you need a range of more like 400 or 450 miles.

300 miles EPA rating means 300 miles in weather that is generally pretty good at speeds that aren't crazy high; add rain (or cold, or god forbid snow), or speed up and average 80 mph, and your range drops, sometimes precipitously.

It will be a long time before an EV can do the kind of drive you're talking about, if only because that's a pretty edge case in terms of usage. There aren't that many people who have to be able to drive 4 hours non-stop at 80 mph. I know I wouldn't want to do it, ICE or EV.

Ultimately, a 250 mile EV coupled with strategically placed DC fast chargers can do nearly everything an ICE can do. Can it do everything an ICE can do? No. There are a whole range of scenarios where you have to modify your driving, modify your route, or do something else to take account for the fact that your range is limited and your refueling time is (relatively) slow compared to an ICE car.

If you are waiting for an EV that demands literally no change in behavior, it's going to be a long time. Which is fine! Nothing wrong with that.

But in my experience, for the majority of people, the changes in behavior that you need to make are small, relatively infrequent, and are offset by some pretty compelling advantages. I can't tell you how happy I am to not have to go to the gas station, e.g.

EDIT:

I'm mainly trying to challenge the assumption that there is some magic mark at which the compromises that EV ownership demand disappear. There isn't (or at least, there isn't a realistic one). Instead of thinking "EVs have to hit range X before I pull the trigger," you have to sit down and examine where and how you use the car, and whether there's any change you'd accept in your driving habits to accommodate EV ownership.

bren 03-30-2016 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JST (Post 474754)
...that many people who have to be able to drive 4 hours non-stop at 80 mph. I know I wouldn't want to do it, ICE or EV.

Really? :eeps:

edit: Of course, those are the trips where the autopilot would actually be useful. Ironic.

JST 03-30-2016 04:55 PM

Really. Why do I need to do that? It's dangerous, for me at least. No way I am as alert in hour four as I should be. And what's the difference between getting someplace in 4 hours versus 4.75 hours? I'm not delivering organs.

I'd much rather stretch my legs after a couple of hours than try and do 300 miles in one sitting. Maybe I am just weak.

bren 03-30-2016 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JST (Post 474757)
Really. Why do I need to do that? It's dangerous, for me at least. No way I am as alert in hour four as I should be. And what's the difference between getting someplace in 4 hours versus 4.75 hours? I'm not delivering organs.

I'd much rather stretch my legs after a couple of hours than try and do 300 miles in one sitting. Maybe I am just weak.

Old bladder. I get it. :D

It's more like, do I get there in 20 hours or 23? ;)

Josh (PA) 03-30-2016 05:11 PM

On the 4hr non-stop thing, my wife and I both do it comfortably and neither of us find it fatiguing. We usually time it to minimize traffic, if we leave too early or too late we easliy add an hour to the drive. That kind of road trip is the sweet spot of operation for the e61, which we use most often.

The 80mph range truncation is a bigger issue for me. On the PA Turnpike, 476 and 15/86 in NY, average speed is easily 75+. If I had to sit in the right lane at 60 to maintain my total range I'd lose my mind.

I get your point re: where do you draw the line on EV = useful daily vehicle. There is no universally right answer and I know my car usage parameters are an outlier. It is same reason why leases would never work for me right now we just put too many miles on our cars. If we didn't have the lake house and / or a kid that played ice hockey with lots of tournaments in Canada, the times we'd want to drive more than 200 miles in a day would be few and far between. I don't see an EV successfully replacing any of my 3 cars. It can't do the long hauls of the E61, it doesn't check the top down fun boxes of the e88 and it doesn't do the bad weatehr 4wd beater, dog carrier, kid car of the e46. Again, I know this is a personal issue and I'm not in the EV target market. Just giving a counter situation to the EVs are all wonderful discussion.

Edit: Just for fun, I went back and looked at time/mileage when I got the e61. We got it on 7/3/2014 with under 55,000 on it. Today it has 105,000 on. We average 78 miles /day ~28000/year. Wow.

ZBB 03-30-2016 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JST (Post 474749)
Obviously, it goes without saying that you should take those specs with a grain of salt, but I'm going to go one step further--take everything you hear tomorrow with a grain of salt. Tesla is not at all above giving aggressive specs that later turn out to be either not right or only technically correct.

See, e.g., the range of the P85D, and the horsepower of same. Neither of those turned out to match, in the real world, what was announced at launch.

That said, there's nothing particularly surprising in those numbers. I don't think the performance version of the Model 3 will have an EPA range of 300+ miles, though it's possible that one of the lesser cars will--that's more likely a steady state cruising range (which is what Tesla generally quotes before getting certification). But I don't doubt a sub-4 second 0-60 time, given what they are already doing with the Model S.

Honestly, the spec that I think is the most optimistic in that leak is the top end of the price range. I'd be stunned if it maxes out at 60K. I'm guessing more like 80. Keep in mind that the price spread on the Model S is nearly $50,000.

I agree that those specs are a reasonable assumption of a fairly high optioned car... I also agree that the top-line Model 3 will be higher than 60k -- I'm guessing low 70s based on the max-spec Model S being almost $145k -- so a bit more than double the base price...

ZBB 03-30-2016 07:28 PM

As for range:

I agree with JST that ~200-250 miles is the sweet spot for an EV. Anything above that is potentially wasting weight from extra batteries and not needed >95% of the time (and possibly closer to 99% for most people).

I have the now out-of-production S60 -- that originally had an EPA rating of 208 miles, and now displays 195 rated when I do a 100% charge. The drop is partly due to age (the battery is nearing 3 years old...) and partly due to calibration algorithms that are estimates and not always exact (for example a 100% charge I did last December was 188 miles, while last week was 195 -- but the battery was likely holding nearly exactly the same energy). Based on the ~185 mile drive we did last Friday, which had 11 miles remaining, I think 195-196 is accurate and would mean the battery has degraded by 5-6% since new (not bad in 3 years -- Nissan Leafs are known to degrade ~30%+ in <2 years).

Anyway... Out of the nearly 49k miles on the car, about 7.5k has been on road trips -- so 15%. Most of those road trips have used multiple superchargers (a couple were non-supercharger or only 1...). I've found that the pace of a road trip with a ~45 min stop for charging every 1.5-2 hours is really refreshing. You drive for a bit, pull into a supercharger, plug in and go find a place to grab a drink, hit the restroom and sit down and read or take a short walk.

Sharp11 03-30-2016 09:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bren (Post 474761)
Old bladder. I get it. :D

It's more like, do I get there in 20 hours or 23? ;)

Eventually your spine will catch up with you, you'll see ;)

I find these days I need to stop every couple of hours to stretch my back - a simple walk around is all it takes ... it makes all the difference.

ayn 03-30-2016 09:46 PM

amex ready for deposit tomorrow. Are you guys gonna visit a Tesla store in the morning or wait to do it online at the unveil?

ZBB 03-30-2016 09:51 PM

I haven't decided yet. There is a rumor that owners will be able to do it online before the reveal event. If I can't do that, I may swing by the store early afternoon...


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:35 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.1
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Forums © 2003-2008, 'Mudgeon Enterprises - Site hosting by AYN & Associates, LLC