I'm going to at least try and go to the store, which isn't far from my office.

I guess everyone is (way) different. I've done 1200 miles in a day a couple times, and 800+ in a day many times. I guess I wouldn't recommend it, but it certainly wasn't in any way dangerous. If I limited myself to four hours behind the wheel I'd have to start buying more PTO :lol:

For daily driving, 100 miles of nominal range is sufficient, assuming the usual degradation of batteries in extremely cold or hot weather, plus having a buffer for extra unplanned stops. But given the cost of these things, it's going to have to replace something in the lineup and do all of the things that the car it replaced can do. That includes doing 250-mile roadtrips in one shot. An EV with a 250 mile nominal range can't do that - there's no safety buffer. 250 is already the low end of usability for us - it's 300 miles to Marisa's parents' place. And yeah, I'm going to drive 75-80. :dunno:

A friend is picking up his model S tomorrow. Sounds like he may be walking into quite a show.

So, can I have him reserve one in my name? While he's there?

I can understand that many people can't drive more than a couple hours at a stretch for physical or mental acuity issues. I also know that I'm rarely one of them. There was one time driving back from Toledo to DC, I had to stop to pee at almost every service area, but that was weird. 300 miles in a single stretch isn't enough to even think about. If I start a trip in the morning after a normal night of sleep, it's 13-14 hours before I need more of a stop than it takes to fill a tank of gas and pee. 30 minutes and some food and I'm good for another 3-4 hours before it might start getting iffy. When I was younger, I would have thought that was old and slow. Today, I recognize this probably isn't normal.

300 real world miles in moderately adverse conditions still seems like a tipping point. A charger network comparable in coverage to today's gas stations still seems like the other.

Fortunately you're both on the same side of the nuke summit.

Coverage and time to "fill up."

That's the real killer.

Waiting on 30 gallons of diesel from a normal car-type pump nozzle is bad enough. Having time for a sit down table cloth meal? Forget that, take the other car.

Ease of "topping off" or getting a "splash and go" would get almost as much mileage (ha!) as "topping off." If you miscalculate your range just a bit, a relatively quick stop at any city or suburban corner to charge up enough to get home or to the office and a similarly quick stop to make it that last 50 miles to your trip destination may go a long way to solving range anxiety. :dunno:

I'm curious to see what they offer for 35k. Its' not like a base Model S for 70k is luxurious or well-equipped. To save money, supposedly it's:
-steel vs aluminum
-economies of scale from the gigafactory
-lower margin/higher production

Hard to see how that saves 35k though. Will be interesting to see how they differentiate it from the regular (non P) S other than size. Only possibiltiies I can think of are longer range (which would probably mean a 100D as the minimum config for an S)

Your stamina is impressive. I like to think I'm good at long drives, but at about the 10 hour mark I often start to fade mentally enough that I'm not that comfortable pushing farther. I can, and have, pushed much farther in a pinch, but if I'm planning a long road trip I usually plan for 9-ish hours per stint.

800 miles in a day is a lot different than 300 miles without stopping for anything. Even a short walk can really refresh you.

For a 300 mile trip in a Tesla, the question is "is there a supercharger en route?" If so, the trip ain't no thing. Is it as fast as doing it in a gas car? No, probably not. But the actual charging you need to do for a trip like that is pretty minimal. Park car, plug it in, go to the bathroom, get a cup of coffee, check Facebook or 'mudgeons. Then you're on your way. I do a roughly 300 mile trip to NYC 'burbs quite frequently, and it takes me about the same amount of time in the Tesla as it does in the VW. The difference is well within the traffic margin of error.

As for other trips, you just have to plan a bit more than you otherwise would. Is there a supercharger near your route? Is there a charger at your destination? I will say I've literally never encountered "range anxiety," in the sense that I've been worried about running out of juice before reaching a place to charge. Has not happened in 2.5 years of owning the car. Once you know where you're going, you go there. Physics is what it is, and it's easy enough to track your consumption. No surprises.

Like I said above, it's not going to work for everyone, and it does require some changes in behavior. But overall I've been pleasantly surprised by just how little I've had to change how I drive, and on a day to day basis it's actually awesome. Car's always full and ready to go in the morning. At least 350+ days out of the year, the Tesla is a hell of a lot more convenient to refuel than the VW is.

We did an 850 mile day in the Tesla a couple summers ago -- from Cannon Beach, OR to San Jose, CA. All driving was at ~5 over the limit. There were 6 supercharging stops -- but 3 were at meal times, and the car was ready before we were so didn't add any extra time to the trip. The other 3 stops were a exactly like JST described -- plug in, grab a drink and/or snack, hit the restroom, sit down and browse the web for a bit, or go for a short walk. Then get back on the road. Still made for a long day -- about 17 hours hotel to hotel, but neither my wife or I felt tired (although I drove all but 1 stretch)...

We've driven to Disneyland a few times over the years, with the last 2 in the Tesla. It takes about 45 min longer in the Tesla due to charging stops compared to taking an ICE -- from a bit under 7.5 hours to a bit over 8 hours, which is hardly noticabe. We actually stop the same number of times -- but the Tesla stops are a bit longer on average.

It is a change -- but not significant.

It's not a significant change... for you.

Right. Some people should not buy EVs. They aren't the right fit.

There is a ridiculous line outside the Tesla location in the Prudential mall across from my office. Maybe it'll dissipate later in the day so I can go put down my deposit.

This is far too much like the original iphone launches. :/

People do realize that at some point they are supposed to be buying a car right?

GM execs must be eating their hats today.

Someone on another board pointed out it would have been glorious if Apple had chosen this morning to introduce a new iKoolAid product. :lol:

:lol:

Somebody created a spreadsheet to track the lines (and a form to input length)...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Longest reported line is 600 people... Scottsdale apparently is over 130...

I agree with that statement, but with a relatively minor caveat..

They aren't the right fit based on their current perception of what a car should do. A shift in perception could mean that they can become the right fit.

For some people, that may be a small shift in perception. Others, it might take more.

• If someone never does road trips, there is no perception shift needed.
• If someone does occasional road trips on major interstates only, a small perception shift is needed -- basically understanding that Superchargers work, but do take a bit longer than a gas 'n go fill up...
• If someone does long trips to remote areas, a much bigger shift may be needed -- understanding charging options and how long it could take. Or looking to rent a car for this trips

I think you're right. I'm trying to alter my perception of what we need versus what we want, as the Model 3 is intriguing and I'd like to find a way to make it work for how I use my car (or for how my wife uses hers, since it realistically could replace either).

For regular commuting, there's no question. It would work great and be very convenient, especially since my wife no longer has any long days in the car anymore.
For long trips, we can always take the other car (the truck doesn't count... it has a specific need - towing and hauling - outside of which it's never used).

The question is, does it make sense. From a strictly cost-related point of view, even the cheapest number I've seen thrown out for the 3 ($35k?) makes it a hard sell if it's replacing a $25k GTI or similar car. Then there's the repair / maintenance aspect. Keeping it out of warranty isn't an option, because there's essentially no way to repair it without paying Tesla to do it. So it's purchase an extended warranty (with really bad terms, if Tesla holds on what they just released) or sell. Depreciation on the Model S has been at the poor end when compared to other premium cars. So the total cost of ownership is going to be pretty high as it's not a car we'd likely own for a couple hundred thousand miles before selling.

Another issue is the driving engagement one. The Model S is, for me at least, simply not fun to drive. Part of that is because it's big. But most of it is because it feels like an appliance. It's very fast, but it's missing the steering, brake, and chassis feel that makes a good car good. Will the 3 be better? It's a big unknown right now. It certainly can't replace something like the Boxster. A GTI? Maybe.

We have pretty much the same calculous. Let me know once you work out the answer. :)

With thousands of reservations going on today, I'm leaning towards not bothering. Probably be able to pick one up used by the time production ramps up. ASSUMING, even half of those people actually follow through - I suspect the retention rate will be pretty poor.

From a cost standpoint, you need to compare the Model 3 with its intended competition -- which is really the 3 series/A4/ATS class, not a Golf or Mini. The Model S drives well for its class (it's in between the 5 and 7 series depending on options). But the battery mass both helps lower the CG, but adds mass that you can feel.

You should also compare the cost of the car plus cost of fuel. Even at current oil prices, for the driving I do (average of ~1200 miles a month), a 25 MPG car would use ~$90 a month in gas. I pay about $30 for electricity... $60 a month minimum savings (and more if gas prices go back up).

And early Model 3 will still get a rebate -- so that takes the price down a bit. But I still think a nicely optioned Model 3 will be at least $50K...

There's supposedly over 900 people in line at Scottsdale!

Says who? It's supposed to be a $35k everyman's commuter car, right? That's sounds more like a Camry.

I spend about $15/mo on gas for my commute in the m3. The math doesn't really work there. ;)

That's kind of how they've been hyping it. But 35k is around the price of base A4 or 320. I'm sure the Model 3 will outperform a base A4 or 320, but will likely be similarly barebones. A real Camry competitor would need to start closer to 20k.

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016...48818fa110.jpg

Around 11 there was a decent line. Went out, had lunch, came back and the line was gone.

Reservation placed.

Now I have to wait until tonight to see what I just reserved.

You had to wait in line like a commoner?

I went to the mall store at the Pru at 11:45 and there was no wait at all.

No, I didn't wait.

Left and came back.

But since I have a Model S my reservation is ahead of most of these people, anyway. ;)

The spreadsheet shows the K-street store topped out at 150 people, and the Prudential Center one at 70...

I'm heading over to Scottsdale at 1:30 -- so will get there just after 2pm. Hopefully the 900+ person line is worked through by then... We'll see.

Where's the spreadsheet?

EDIT: NM, found it.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thre...-canada.66797/

I posted a link above...

I'd like to see some verification for those numbers.

Make sure you read the comments before getting too excited. Like this one from MA:
Yup, sounds like 200 people long to me. :lol:

Edit: according to those guesstimates, that's over 25k orders. Assuming none of those people are tricky and do one for their spouse or whatever too.

Yeah, I believe the 70. I walked past at like 7:45 in then morning and it was maybe 2/3 - 3/4 of that. It's a tiny store, so still looked quite long.

The numbers are obviously swags... I'm heading out now to go to Scottsdale...

Saw video on the news of the line in the Bellevue WA mall store . . . looked like 100-150 people long

Just put my deposit down. 4 people ahead of me in line -- and 4-5 in line a few minutes later when I left. The woman said that they'd had over 800 deposits so far...

I am sure that if it had been any day other than today or tomorrow, there would have been substantially more. It's just barely past the perimeter of the Nuclear Security Summit security zone. I normally pass the store on my morning commute, but 11th street was a parking lot as far north as Rhode Island this morning, so I took 13thh...and had to stop at every fucking intersection for a motorcade. Traffic was fucked all around despite downtown DC being a ghost town. Almost all of the federal government was teleworking today. I think all of those of us that went in are those with kids at a certain age who are on spring break.

I thought today was supposed to be the big reveal?