Where are they now?

[FC]

I know I live in a wealthy part of the country, but since I moved to the US, I've always been fascinated by how quickly the population of cars turns over.

Of course, some cars get totalled in accidents and floods. Others become prohibitively expensive to keep running - but can't can happen to a car that is only a handful of years old except for the relatively small percentage of people who rack up 25k+ miles a year. Is that it? Is it as simple as they get crashed and old?

Does supply and demand move cars to other areas of the country? That can't be a big contributor.

But if we pick a car we are all familiar with, like say an E90 3er, where are all those now?

I still see plenty, but nowhere near the number 5 years ago. Where are they now?

[wdc330i]

I know I live in a wealthy part of the country, but since I moved to the US, I've always been fascinated by how quickly the population of cars turns over.

Of course, some cars get totalled in accidents and floods. Others become prohibitively expensive to keep running - but can't can happen to a car that is only a handful of years old except for the relatively small percentage of people who rack up 25k+ miles a year. Is that it? Is it as simple as they get crashed and old?

Does supply and demand move cars to other areas of the country? That can't be a big contributor.

But if we pick a car we are all familiar with, like say an E90 3er, where are all those now?

I still see plenty, but nowhere near the number 5 years ago. Where are they now?

Here's one that may bring back memories.

http://enthusiastauto.com/qsearch/?id=5675&form_display=51

[FC]

Here's one that may bring back memories.

http://enthusiastauto.com/qsearch/?id=5675&form_display=51

That's ridiculously close to my car except for the wheels.

[Nick M3]

Labor is extremely expensive. Keeping an older car on the road costs a lot and people just aren’t inclined to do it. Likewise, insurance companies are aggressive about totaling (see high labor costs), so it’s very easy for minor damage to take a car off the road.

On top of that, the 2007 to 2010 or so cohort of cars didn’t exactly sell well compared to what they should have due to the recession.

[clyde]

And yet the average age of operating cars on the road keeps increasing. It's now 10.1-11.6 years (not sure how I'm reading this" https://www.bts.gov/content/average-age-automobiles-and-trucks-operation-united-states)

The cars and SUVs in your yuppie neighborhoods make their way downmarket. If you're not seeing them, it's willful ignorance. I see plenty of older vehicles every day. More in certain parts of town than others. Outside of metro areas, it's pretty stark. Check out the ages of vehicles in rural Walmarts, Waffle Houses and bars sometime. Travel through the country off-Interstate and note the cars and trucks in driveways and yards.

Don't believe your bubble.

[clyde]

Labor is extremely expensive. Keeping an older car on the road costs a lot and people just aren’t inclined to do it. Likewise, insurance companies are aggressive about totaling (see high labor costs), so it’s very easy for minor damage to take a car off the road.

On top of that, the 2007 to 2010 or so cohort of cars didn’t exactly sell well compared to what they should have due to the recession.

But those totaled cars aren't crushed. They're resold, fixed, and put back in service.

I'm often amazed at how many moderately aged BMWs and MBs I see in pretty ratty shape driving around.

[Nick M3]

But those totaled cars aren't crushed. They're resold, fixed, and put back in service.

I'm often amazed at how many moderately aged BMWs and MBs I see in pretty ratty shape driving around.
Also true.

I think that the big factor is that in areas where people buy new cars, they lease them. Whereas they might have held on to a car before, today, they turn it in.

[clyde]

Also true.

I think that the big factor is that in areas where people buy new cars, they lease them. Whereas they might have held on to a car before, today, they turn it in.

Where do they go after that? (Which I think was FC's question.)

Something I forgot, but some (a lot?) may be going overseas. I know it happens adn has been growing, but don't know what numbers are like.

[Jeff_DML]

Where do they go after that? (Which I think was FC's question.)

Something I forgot, but some (a lot?) may be going overseas. I know it happens adn has been growing, but don't know what numbers are like.

I think quite a few make it down to Mexico, at least in my area. And as you mentioned, "downmarket" so FC just needs to get out of his bubble :D

[ZBB]

I remember when I worked in Japan that used cars had almost no market. Most JDM vehicles get exported once they are 4-5+ Years old. I worked there during the summer of 2000 and rarely saw cars more than 5 years old on the road.

But you do see used JDM cars in places like Australia and Canada. The island my in-laws live on in Canada has a bunch of RHD JDM vehicles on it. mostly small minivans and delivery trucks, but a few interesting things like a Nissan S-Cargo...

[lemming]

But those totaled cars aren't crushed. They're resold, fixed, and put back in service.



I'm often amazed at how many moderately aged BMWs and MBs I see in pretty ratty shape driving around.



Easy, Clyde. I drive a 2009 5er wagon around with well over 100,000 miles. It’s far from perfect.

Okay. I guess it’s getting ratty.

[clyde]

Easy, Clyde. I drive a 2009 5er wagon around with well over 100,000 miles. It’s far from perfect.

Okay. I guess it’s getting ratty.

Never seen your '09 wagon, but I seriously doubt it makes my wife's twice wrecked and twice washed not-a-square-inch-too-small-for-its-own-scratch-or-ding-often-a-few-of-each 125k mile 2013 Outback look nice. The ones I'm talking about do.

[Terri Kennedy]

I know I live in a wealthy part of the country, but since I moved to the US, I've always been fascinated by how quickly the population of cars turns over.

Of course, some cars get totalled in accidents and floods. Others become prohibitively expensive to keep running - but can't can happen to a car that is only a handful of years old except for the relatively small percentage of people who rack up 25k+ miles a year. Is that it? Is it as simple as they get crashed and old?
It is too bad there isn't something like the UK's How many left? (https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/) for the US. But of course, given the "51 kingdoms" nature of the DMV here, it isn't practical.

[equ]

Good point, FC. I've noted a similar tendency... I do think some of the lease fleet (0 to 3years) moves away from the NYC hubbub after 4+. And then some more again at 6+ when past CPO, I see those cars more often in PA e.g.

Another aspect might be your sample... People commute in and put most miles on their newest cars.

[rumatt]

I was thinking about something similar the other day.

1. The consumer has encouraged manufacturing of vehicles to go in a direction where they are a) insanely expensive, b) depreciate quickly, c) are extremely expensive to repair. This is a terrible combination. People buy and sell beautiful, complex pieces of engineering and sell them for a huge financial loss because of the fear that they might break down. It's pretty crazy that this feels so normal.

2. It's only going to get worse now that cars are computers. It's like buying a new $600 smart phone every year because you don't feel like changing (or cannot change) the battery. I can't believe it's happening now for $60k vehicles.

As a society we have committed to pouring significantly more money (an order of magnitude more ?) into vehicles than was necessary. Was this the right choice? Is this really where we as a society should be pouring money?

[FC]

I was thinking about something similar the other day.

1. The consumer has encouraged manufacturing of vehicles to go in a direction where they are a) insanely expensive, b) depreciate quickly, c) are extremely expensive to repair. This is a terrible combination. People buy and sell beautiful, complex pieces of engineering and sell them for a huge financial loss because of the fear that they might break down. It's pretty crazy that this feels so normal.

2. It's only going to get worse now that cars are computers. It's like buying a new $600 smart phone every year because you don't feel like changing (or cannot change) the battery. I can't believe it's happening now for $60k vehicles.

As a society we have committed to pouring significantly more money (an order of magnitude more ?) into vehicles than was necessary. Was this the right choice? Is this really where we as a society should be pouring money?

I'm having that dilemma with TV's. Old CRT's used to hang around forever.

New TV's are large and "cheap," but what do I do with my 2007 Sony 42" that has a border/frame 1.5" wide and I hardly use? In our bedrom we have a TV 2009 Sony 46" is far too small for my room (used to be in the FR in my old house). What to do with that? They both work perfectly well. I fear even as donations they will just get thrown away.

[kognito]

I'm having that dilemma with TV's. Old CRT's used to hang around forever.

New TV's are large and "cheap," but what do I do with my 2007 Sony 42" that has a border/frame 1.5" wide and I hardly use? In our bedrom we have a TV 2009 Sony 46" is far too small for my room (used to be in the FR in my old house). What to do with that? They both work perfectly well. I fear even as donations they will just get thrown away.

What size TV is in your garage?

We have one TV on a DVR/cable box. Every other TV in our house is using Roku type of connection to the internet

[equ]

I "sold" my good-for-2009 (still pretty good) Sony 46" Bravia for $100 to a bike mechanic friend.

[clyde]

I'm having that dilemma with TV's. Old CRT's used to hang around forever.

New TV's are large and "cheap," but what do I do with my 2007 Sony 42" that has a border/frame 1.5" wide and I hardly use? In our bedrom we have a TV 2009 Sony 46" is far too small for my room (used to be in the FR in my old house). What to do with that? They both work perfectly well. I fear even as donations they will just get thrown away.

What size TV is in your garage?

We have one TV on a DVR/cable box. Every other TV in our house is using Roku type of connection to the internet

With Doug here. Garage. Or keep them ready for wherever the kids watch TV/hang out as supplemental TVs for the gaming console, so they can game or stream something from a device while having the "tv" on. I see this in a lot of neighbors' houses and it works nicely.

[Alan]

I'm having that dilemma with TV's. Old CRT's used to hang around forever.

New TV's are large and "cheap," but what do I do with my 2007 Sony 42" that has a border/frame 1.5" wide and I hardly use? In our bedrom we have a TV 2009 Sony 46" is far too small for my room (used to be in the FR in my old house). What to do with that? They both work perfectly well. I fear even as donations they will just get thrown away.

Give them away at the office or give them away to relatives or friends .... that’s what I do ... I feel too guilty to throw them out and not everyone can afford new tv’s and are generally happy to get them.

[FC]

Had not thought of the garage idea. Brilliant! Slap a chromecast and I can get DIY videos to play.

I'm so dumb. Thanks!

[Jon]

I think quite a few make it down to Mexico, at least in my area. And as you mentioned, "downmarket" so FC just needs to get out of his bubble :D

Yep, Mexico, and other points South.

[kognito]

Had not thought of the garage idea. Brilliant! Slap a chromecast and I can get DIY videos to play.

I'm so dumb. Thanks!

And music! the TV I have in the garage is not a good tv, but has good stereo speakers (for a tv)